Do the ruling party’s politicians care that the middle class is falling out of love with this government? They should. But, judging by their behaviour, I guess that they don’t.
All politicians love dissing and dismissing the middle class. It is fickle, they will say. There is just no pleasing them, they will add. It is foolish to rely on middle-class support. Just look at the record of the middle class, they will sneer dismissively.
After all, it was the middle class that raved about Rajiv Gandhi during his first three years in office. But by the fourth year, middle-class voters had turned against him. It was the same with VP Singh. Welcomed as ‘Mr Clean’ by middle-class voters when he became Prime Minister, he turned into Public Enemy No. 1 in a matter of months. And what about Manmohan Singh? When he ushered in the economic reforms that transformed India in 1991, he was hyperbolically hailed as the second father of the nation. When he became PM in 2004, his appointment was widely welcomed. But by the time UPA II came to power, he had become a figure of fun to the middle class, which called him gutless, ineffectual, and incompetent.
So, say politicians, why should anyone care about the fickle middle class? It doesn’t even have enough votes to make a significant difference in elections.
There are two answers to that question, which most politicians overlook. Yes, the middle class had low numbers in 1984 when Rajiv Gandhi was elected, but that is no longer the case. In many constituencies, it is now the middle class that determines the difference between victory and defeat.
Moreover, never, ever underestimate the power of the middle class in shaping the mood of the nation. Even when its numbers were small, it was Rajiv Gandhi’s middle-class critics who turned India against him. It was the middle class that drove VP Singh out of office. If it had been possible, middle-class voters would have chased VP Singh down Race Course Road, hitting him with chappals—such was their anger. And as for Manmohan Singh, whose liberalisation pushed millions of India into the middle class and who is probably the creator of today’s new middle class, even he was thrown out of office by people who had only become middle class because of his reforms.
Yes, it can be fickle and perhaps unreasonable. But lose the middle class and —sooner rather than later — you will lose India.
I always believed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi, of all people, would recognise the importance of middle-class support. After all, when he began his irresistible rise to national prominence in 2012-2013, it was the middle class that sang his praises. Forget about the Gujarat riots, his middle-class supporters argued; what the Congress did in 1984 was just as bad. Instead, they focused on his leadership capabilities, his record as an administrator, his incorruptibility, and his promises of development.
The people who chanted “Modi, Modi” when their hero appeared in public were not landless labourers or poor farmers. They were solidly middle class — all the way from New Delhi to New Jersey — and believed that Modi had the solution to India’s ills.
But after ten years at the top, there is every indication that Modi has begun to accept the political consensus: just ignore the middle class. It doesn’t matter very much. And even if it is upset now, it will eventually come around.
Also read: Middle class is reacting like slighted lovers over Budget 2024. Their anger won’t last
Budget and other miscalculations
As an experienced politician, the Prime Minister must know that after ten years in power, every government faces anti-incumbency, and even its loyalists usually grow weary of supporting it.
The only way to handle this negative sentiment is to return to your support base and reassure it—provide a vision of their better future, and seem sensitive to their grievances and disappointments.
For some reason, the Prime Minister seems unwilling to do this. He must know that much of the early promise of his reign remains unfulfilled. The rupee is not at Rs 40 to the dollar, as his devoted Sri Sri Ravi Shankar had piously assured us. Inflation has eaten away at real middle-class incomes, and it’s unclear what taxpayers are getting in return for their taxes. The fancy trains that were promised never lived up to their billing, and the existing ones derail and crash regularly, killing people. While the government’s education policy focuses mainly on rewriting textbooks to tell lies about our history to children, competitive examination papers are leaked, and young people die because of the callousness of so-called coaching centres. The only significant telecom innovation impacting the middle class has been the rise in spam phone calls, which has reached such levels that fewer and fewer people answer calls from unknown numbers.
When Modi came to power, his supporters promised us a revolution that would transform India. Perhaps such a revolution did come (you can argue about whether it was good or bad in the way it changed India), but what is clear, especially after the BJP failed to win a majority at the last general election, is that this so-called revolution is now spluttering to a halt.
In such circumstances, everyone expected Modi to make amends and reassure the public. But ever since he has taken office, he has done nothing for his original base.
In many ways, the Union Budget 2024— which was noticeably tone-deaf to middle-class concerns — was a symptom of his government’s insensitivity. The angry and indignant response of middle-class Indians, many of whom were Modi supporters, may be overblown. But it tells us how high feelings run and how strong the sense of betrayal is.
I would be very surprised if some of the more foolish taxation proposals are not rolled back by the time the budget is passed by Parliament. However, so far, neither the Prime Minister nor Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said anything to make the middle classes feel better. When Modi spoke at the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) gathering about the budget, he blew his own government’s trumpet without addressing any middle-class concerns. And Finance Minister has been similarly unyielding in her responses during post-budget interviews.
Instead, in yet another miscalculation, the BJP has decided that contempt and abuse are the way to deal with differing views and unleashed its social media army on former supporters who are critical of the budget. Even an RSS spokesman has complained on social media about the arrogance of the BJP’s response.
Till now, the BJP has worked on the assumption that the middle class has nowhere else to go. Sonia Gandhi’s politics were never directed at the middle class and even Rahul Gandhi has been more focused on caste.
There are signs that this could now be changing. Speaking in Parliament on Monday, Rahul Gandhi told the government that though the middle class had traditionally supported the Prime Minister, “in this budget, you stabbed the middle class both in the back and on the chest….the middle class is going to leave you.”
It is not clear how seriously the government takes Rahul Gandhi’s rhetoric. But it is hard to deny that his caricature of the government as serving only the oligarchs is taking hold. Nevertheless, the PM seems unconcerned. During the election campaign, he claimed that the oligarchs sent tempos full of money to the Congress (the treasure in the tempos clearly did not work). He has also shown no hesitation in openly fraternising with oligarchs.
The middle class sees all this. It also sees that its own interests are being neglected. And while it is largely loyal to the BJP, it recognises that it now has other options.
The BJP is making a basic mistake: If you dismiss a class as fickle and prone to changing its mind, you should not give it a chance to prove you right.
Vir Sanghvi is a print and television journalist, and talk show host. He tweets @virsanghvi. Views are personal.
(Edited by Ratan Priya)