The first election for the newly formed Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir since the abrogation of Article 370 and the Haryana assembly polls will be litmus tests for the Bharatiya Janata Party. In keeping with the promise made by the Modi government on the floor of the House during the passing of the resolution on abrogation of Article 370 on 5 August 2019, the Union announced elections to be held in three phases on 18 and 25 September and 1 October 2024. Unanimously upholding the revocation of Article 370, terming it ‘temporary provision’, the Supreme Court in December 2023 had recommended that elections be held in J&K before 30 September 2024.
The BJP can certainly approach voters with confidence on two important counts, one being that the party has kept its promise of holding elections and the other that the party had sufficient support from politicians from a wide spectrum of parties irrespective of their opposition to the BJP on ideological grounds. While parties like the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), Shiv Sena, and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) supported the abrogation, ironically, the Janata Dal (United), despite being an ally of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) then as well, opposed the revocation of Article 370, saying that it will not support the government’s Kashmir provisions as its “chief Nitish Kumar is carrying forward the tradition of JP Narayan, Ram Manohar Lohia and George Fernandes”.
Some senior leaders of the Congress, like former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Bhupinder Singh Hooda, too, supported the abrogation of Article 370, with some of them disagreeing only on the methodology and steps followed by the home ministry. Chief whip of the Congress party in Rajya Sabha, Bhubaneshwar Kalita, resigned over his party’s stand.
The Congress party supported the Gupkar Declaration, which vowed to restore the “special status as enshrined in Article 370” and became part of the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD). While a united opposition would have made life difficult for the BJP, Congress party’s ambivalent stand on the restoration of Article 370 compelled the PAGD to show it the door. With the BJP winning two Lok Sabha seats (Udhampur and Jammu), National Conference (NC) winning Srinagar and Anantnag and independent candidate winning Baramulla, it is doubtful if any party would like the Congress to be part of its alliance.
Against this background, Congress’ overtures to NC leader Omar Abdullah and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) leader Mehbooba Mufti for an alliance may not meet with success as both would not like to share their vote banks with a party that was soft on the revocation of Article 370.
Also read: Jammu terror attacks should worry Modi 3.0—Article 370 abrogation not enough to stop Pakistan
Can the Abdullah clan mobilise public opinion?
Meanwhile, the NC, besides promising a bouquet of freebies, like 12 gas cylinders per year, free or subsidised electricity, healthcare, and food, has promised to continue the struggle to restore “Article 370 and 35A” and pledged in its manifesto to push for an India-Pakistan dialogue on Kashmir. While restoring Article 370 is an impossible task constitutionally, talks with Pakistan are — on any issue, including Kashmir — the exclusive prerogative of the Union government and not for Omar Abdullah to decide. It is doubtful if the scion of the Abdullah clan will be able to mobilise public opinion in his favour on an issue that appears to have run out of steam.
Interestingly, former Congress Chief Minister of Haryana Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who had strongly supported the abrogation of Article 370 saying “his party (Congress) has lost its way as it no longer remains what it once stood for”, is now the main challenger of the BJP in that state. His bête noire and party’s former state chief Ashok Tanwar joined the BJP in January 2024, but failed to add political strength to the BJP in the recently held Lok Sabha election where the ruling party lost five out of the 10 seats it had won last time. If Hooda plays his caste card fairly well and additionally wears his “nationalist stand on J&K” (“My party lost its way and is not the Congress that was there before. I will not compromise with anyone when it comes to patriotism and self-respect,” he had said) on his sleeves, he might be able to mop up some BJP fence-sitters too, thus adding to the party’s troubles in Haryana.
Much water has flown down Vitasta and Yamuna since elections were last held in J&K and Haryana. After the last assembly elections in J&K, the BJP withdrew support to the PDP, pulling the government down. The abrogation of Article 370 and delimitation of constituencies increasing the number of seats in Jammu region to 43 improves the chances of the BJP winning all these seats, provided it additionally promises to give the former state a Hindu chief minister. Yet, it will need 46 seats to form a government in the 90-member UT. In Haryana, the BJP starts the campaign with a loss of five Lok Sabha seats in 2024 and the popular former chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar, now a central minister, out of the state. It appears to be an uphill task in J&K and swimming against the current in Haryana for the BJP this time. But the mood in the party’s headquarters is upbeat.
Seshadri Chari is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. He tweets @seshadrichari. Views are personal.
(Edited by Humra Laeeq)