The dramatic events in Bangladesh bring the focus back onto India’s neighbourhood, and the Modi government’s record in dealing with it. To take a deeper look at what’s immediate, we need to begin a quarter-century ago.
This is when Atal Bihari Vajpayee made his big move with Pakistan by taking the bus ride to Lahore. You can choose your friends, he said, but you can’t choose your neighbours. It followed that improving ties with them was imperative.
In 2008, Dr Manmohan Singh took it a step forward with his call of “Neighbourhood First”. In 2014, Narendra Modi also put his stamp on it with his characteristic style, inviting all the leaders in the extended Subcontinent for his swearing-in. He followed it up with visits to the neighbours, mostly held in a mood of resurgent euphoria and in one case, with an extraordinary sense of drama.
This when he surprised all by breaking a journey in Lahore to greet the then prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, on his granddaughter’s wedding.
There was hope now, if India’s first leader with a majority in 25 years was showing such commitment to improving relationships in the region of seven sovereign nations with multiple divides and tectonic faults, some caused by ideology, all deepened and widened by history. Some also had Cold War-era debris cluttering them. It was a formidable challenge to repair and clean these breaches and build bridges over them.
As Modi’s third successive term gets under way, how does his scoresheet look? Bangladesh is the biggest crisis. For 15 years now, Dhaka had been India’s closest ally. The pivot to a secure northeast for India is located in Dhaka, especially with nobody ever knowing where the centre of gravity is in Myanmar.
Pakistan saw dramatic changes, and its new regime almost fully broke off with India after the 5 August, 2019 changes in Jammu and Kashmir.
Nepal, meanwhile, ratcheted up distrust to a level where it changed its national maps to incorporate strategically important Indian territories, through which ran a pilgrim route to Kailash-Mansarovar. As always happens with competitive and prickly nationalisms, the map also got unanimous endorsement in Nepal’s Parliament.
Sri Lanka had its own version of a ‘colour’ or ‘maidan’ revolution following an economic meltdown, as well as the Chinese acquisition of its prime port at Hambantota. The rise of Mohamed Muizzu in Maldives on an ‘India Out’ campaign is a more recent story. Bhutan is under intense pressure from the Chinese to ‘settle’ its border, ideally on the basis of ‘never mind India’s interests’.
Also Read: Pakistanis voted against their army for the first time. The democracy is both dead and alive
Is this dramatic turnaround for the worse entirely India’s fault? Or is India a victim?
How can India claim victimhood when it is such a dominant force? Its GDP today is four times that of the rest of the region together, its population three times, and its global power multiple times.
Its people have also earned for their republic that unique quality in this neighbourhood: a stable constitutional democracy where every transition has taken place democratically, peacefully and credibly. Junk that idea of victimhood.
Ours is among the most unstable neighbourhoods in the world. Most neighbours are highly populous, with crowded cities, youthful, and have tasted democracy unlike messy regions in Africa. The combination of a large, young aspirational population with a taste for democracy means that difficult thing called public opinion matters.
In the immediate context, that’s what Hasina and India as her friend overlooked in Bangladesh. These are not nations where a dictator, however powerful, can do things public opinion doesn’t like. Each is a much more imperfect democracy than ours. But none is a perfect dictatorship either. In all these countries, you deal with both the regime and public opinion.
That public opinion also understands sovereignty. If India is seen as hectoring, it causes a dreadful immune reaction. We’ve seen this in Nepal, Maldives, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. That 2015 blockade is an awful scar.
The fact is, South Block is mindful of this and mostly correct in what it says. But, what is said in the media seen as friendly to the government — which is almost all our news TV channels, especially in Hindi — is tracked closely. This is worsened exponentially by ultranationalist social media handles.
These put out threads of revisionist, often non-factual history of India’s ties with the neighbours and their territories. Some recommend sending in the Army to Bangladesh, opening the borders for Hindus (there are 14 million of them), and creating an enclave in Rangpur.
On the day External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar ended his visit to Maldives, mostly to pour oil over troubled waters, the canard that Malé had “handed over” 28 islands to India spread. It made it to what passes for prime-time debates on some Hindi TV channels. Somebody even said: “Muizzu ne ghutne tek diye.” (Muizzu has gone down on his knees). We can toss it as a joke but Maldivians won’t. A country with about half a million people and a $7-billion GDP has one blessing in the same measure as a rising behemoth like India: sovereignty. Ultimately, South Block had these tweets deleted. Too late.
Also Read: Modi has exhumed Nehru’s Global South. Which fails the test of geography, geopolitics and economics
Put yourself in the chappals of a neighbour who’s watching this discourse from India. All they hear about Indian policies is ‘muscular, muscular, muscular’. Muscularity is great, but what about those other attributes: cerebral, cultural, scientific, intellectual? A nation with the humility to be a teacher to the region, if on the way to be the ‘vishwaguru’, as Swami Vivekananda imagined in his Chicago address.
Are our academic institutions good enough to attract some of the lakhs of students from our neighbours who go overseas for education? Do we want them? What about a shower of scholarships, internships, cultural performances and movies instead of hyper-nationalist media insults?
As the sole superpower’s record tells you, soft power is not an adjunct but critical to hard power. Does India have think tanks to house dozens of scholars from the neighbouring countries, invite them to conferences, run its own track-2 processes? It isn’t as if India doesn’t know this. That’s why we buy power from Nepal and Bhutan but export to Bangladesh. These are vital economic linkages and stakes. Forget Adani.
The other side of the coin is the overplaying of the Hindu card. The prime minister’s visits to Nepal and Bangladesh had temple visits as highlights. The larger reality, however, is that along our longest borders, we face large Muslim majorities. They look at us askance when we ask them to treat their minorities fairly. It is a case of disastrously ‘perfect’ timing that just when Bangladesh is on the boil and our diplomacy is engaged in damage control, Assam last Thursday presented its first CAA citizenship to a Hindu from Bangladesh.
For five years now, and especially since the war in Ukraine began, India has been talking up multipolarity, strategic autonomy and multi-alignment. Good ideas, but these are available to our neighbours as well, especially with the Chinese shadow, much bigger than ours. They can all play China against us as we might play (however bashfully and clumsily) the US against China. The Subcontinent is not our strategic preserve. Even the mighty Americans have failed to subdue Cuba, just next door, and Venezuela, which isn’t far away.
The fundamental construct of India’s neighbourhood policy still needs to be what Vajpayee postulated, Manmohan Singh embraced and Modi energised. It’s just that we need to junk domestic politics and excessive religiosity while acquiring much humility and a renewed respectfulness towards our neighbours.
Also Read: Two-sided triangle: Fast-growing India is caught in China-Pakistan pincer in Modi’s 10th year
The clear majority of comments to this article unironically underscore the problems that the Indian State has.
They want to enjoy the status of regional Imperial power, but without any of the responsibilities, let alone consequences — just like the Imperialists elsewhere.
And the replies to my comment, given the display-name I’d choose — would only further that if they go the predictable way.
It is a great article sir. However, I would like to make a small suggestion to the title of this article. Instead of India in the article, I would request you to replace that with Indians. While it’s true that the government never stops short of playing the Hindutva card, but we cannot overlook the presence of this sentiment and overplaying of it to more than permissible limits among the general public. Because the social media handles you are talking about are mostly run by media persons or common people not related to the Indian government in any way. So if there is a public display of muscle flexing by the government, that is amplified by the common Indians who in equal measure represent this same feeling and sentiment.
Shekar ji. I have been a great fan of your political analysis. But I find in recent times your thinking is getting muddled and missing some key points in your opinion pieces.
India. has for all times been punching above its weight, with no economic/social prowesses to boast about except for the potential of a huge market. In today’s world our GDP per capita is low, lower than our African friends or BRICS group. And on the social/ humanity index we are far off the mark.
The Hindutva rhetoric has caused more damage than good on the external front. If we are calling Bangladesh to exercise restrain and protect minorities, what has been India’s record on this side of the border? We too have some terrible human rights issues (Manipur) …. Where the head of the state has been allowed to call the shots!! Look at Assam, UP or MP or Karnataka or the newly formed UT in the former J& K. Violence has not abated and minorities are under the pump..
And we are trying to call the shots with no economic power to hold out against our adversaries on all sides. Even a place like Maldives is showing us the exit door.
The way out is to tone down the Hindutva rhetoric, demonstrate economy capabilities by setting long term businesses in our neighbouring countries. Open reciprocal travelling. And stop thinking every mullah is a terrorist or Christain clergy is there to prostelyise. Look at Europe countries at war 90 years ago are united economically under a union. What holds us in India taking the lead.
It’s the only way to mitigate the risk to our democracy given the geopolitical situation of India
Hear, here…! 👍🏾👍🏾👍🏾 👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾
Maybe its just me, but parts of this article don’t make a lot of sense. While I agree with the author in that India can and should do more to promote friendly relations with its neighbors, I don’t think that India can/should turn a blind eye to what happens in these countries. If India has valid concerns about the treatment of minorities in its Muslim-majority neighbors should it remain silent and not say/do anything? Also, in the case of countries like Pakistan, nothing much has been/will be achieved by India’s overtures. If someone openly declares themselves to be your enemy (and tries to harms you at every opportunity they get), maybe its best you believe them and stay away.
So many of the fine thoughts and sentiments of this column have been swirling in my mind. Always think of the Gujral Doctrine as inherently wise, benevolent, foreseeing the economic and political rise of China, to which each neighbour would turn for both mutual benefit and hedging. India’s rise, its place in the world, must all be anchored in South Asia. Mushqil nahin hai.
This opinion piece may be intellectually dishonest. India’s neighbors are messed up for reasons internal to their polities. It’s not India’s fault. There’s little India can do except to manage the after shocks. There’s no reason for India to bend over backwards and shed its “religiosity”.
This article is an excellent example of denying realities. The truth is that none of India’s neighbours have been able to get their act together since they became sovereign countries. Each one is dysfunctional in it’s own way. Neither India becoming more humble or less religious (whatever that means) ever going to change this. This has been the case irrespective of who is in power in Delhi.
Great insight!! That’s the Shekhar that we need all the time!
Subcontinental setbacks have a message for India: Junk victimhood & respect thy neighbour
Bangladesh is just latest example of disquiet in India’s neighbourhood. We need to junk domestic politics & excessive religiosity, acquire humility in our approach to neighbours.
What a shit of title & article!
It should be other way, India’s neighbours should junk excessive religiosity and acquire humility!