Europe is sitting at Trump’s table, and there’s a lesson for India

Putin sees this as a victory. Europeans have decided to deal with Trump on his terms for the sake of the larger Western alliance. We look at the lessons for us in India.

Illustration: Manali Ghosh/ThePrint

Focus for a moment on that image, one that will be remembered for generations. Leaders of the greatest European nations, along with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, sitting like contrite, obedient schoolchildren in front of Donald Trump, the imperial headmaster.

What’s the first emotion that comes to mind: sympathy, amusement, pity, schadenfreude, a call to wake up to the new world? Chances are it will be a combination of all of the above, except sympathy. And that isn’t only because we are Trump’s favourite victim today. At some point going ahead we’d suggest we revise this impulsive reaction.

We can see at least one leader’s mind has no emotional muddle. Vladimir Putin sees this with pure contempt. Here are the richest, most powerful nations in the world, the third and sixth largest national economies, second largest economic bloc (EU), two nuclear-armed P5 states, all on their knees.

They are reduced to being court jesters before the only leader who matters in the Western alliance, which Putin has been trying to weaken. This has been argued persuasively by Owen Matthews in a long article for TheSpectator headlined “Putin’s trap: how Russia plans to split the western alliance”.

Putin also sees this as an acknowledgement that he has won the war. It is entirely up to him to define this victory. It’s the opposite for the Europeans who now need to see what isn’t a bad enough defeat.

Putin now knows he can keep what he’s captured, not just in the invasion he launched in 2022. Crimea and Donbas are his too. That’s about 20 percent of the vast Ukrainian landmass. Further, NATO’s eastward expansion is history. Trump has stated so often enough. While we know he changes his mind as often as a colourful imperial dictator we only see in the movies, it is unlikely that he will suddenly start backing Ukraine and Europe’s dream demands, which include a defeated Putin. That will involve full-fledged American involvement. He’s already put on the table what he’ll concede. Putin can take that and start negotiating for add-ons.

The Russians have suffered severely and yet they are still attacking, however slow and expensive the progress. If peace comes at this point, Putin can declare victory. He can even make that victory speech from Crimea or Mariupol. With peace, the sanctions will go. He can then start rebuilding his economy. His leverage ultimately came from the fact that he’s convinced Trump he can keep on fighting, whatever the cost.

If Putin has been denied his maximalist ask, of reducing Ukraine into a quasi-sovereign state with a regime of his choice, it is because the Ukrainians fought with incredible bravery and smarts. While the Western allies and the US may have helped them with resources, Ukrainians have earned their organic survival as a sovereign state by fighting for so long and exacting a price only a state as hard as Putin’s Russia could endure.

They’ve taught the world drone warfare, covert operations at a distance and scale even the great Mossad and Israel Defence Forces would envy. They’ve braved enormous casualties on a relatively small population base (35 million), about a fifth of which is refugee in other countries. They have also inflicted much greater casualties on the Russians, a phenomenal damage to their economy and military assets. Two things have denied them a better outcome. The first, just the inability of their European allies to accept any pain, military or economic. And the second, the return of Trump.

This die more or less cast, we return to that historic picture in the Oval Office. Many books and doctorates will be written on how Europe reduced itself to one giant vassal. Let me explain the biggest reason Europe is reduced to being the first willing victim of Trump’s new imperialism, how they are responding, and lessons for India.

Europe blundered in outsourcing its security to the US. To begin with it was because of the self-imposed limitations of post World War II pacifism. Then, the lazy post-Soviet era as the Cold War ended. While NATO not only survived but expanded, there was always the belief that there was no real threat and that the Americans would defend Europe. Until one day they wouldn’t. Now they want to be paid even for military hardware.

This fear of Russia has forced Europe to sign a patently one-sided trade deal with Trump. He says he has the power to employ every dollar of the $600 billion Europe has pledged to invest in the US. A key aide (Scott Bessent) says it’s like their own sovereign wealth fund. That’s protection money and imperialism. Even if they spend more on defence now, they will struggle to find recruits for the new military expansion. Military culture long ended in Europe, except France and to some extent Britain. Poland retained it from the Warsaw Pact era, and now has among the largest militaries in NATO. Others, barring Turkey, are at America’s mercy.

Further, the economic dependence on cheap Chinese goods, Russian gas and outsourced manufacturing are other crimes of laziness. The tunnel boring machines that China denied to India until recently, are German. It’s just that they shifted the manufacture to China to make more profit. There’s again a French exception to this.

The Europeans have been jolted now. The important thing, and what we in India need to note, is that they are responding from realism not emotion. On Ukraine and larger European security they will accept the least worst of a bad bargain. They won’t kick Trump in the shin or shame him. The national interest mostly calls for responses that are cynical, not emotional. Acting like jilted lovers gets nothing but derision.

That Oval Office picture tells us the story of this pragmatism. The Europeans have decided to deal with Trump on his terms because they want to keep the larger Western alliance together. There will be America after Trump is gone. Even the concessions they make to him now can’t all be delivered in his term. There will be a tomorrow and a return to normalcy. Therefore, the lessons for us in India:

● Strengthen your military, and it’s a fitting metaphor, on war footing. No slogans, no tall talk, no boasts and no what may come in a decade. Start this here and now. Focus on deterring Pakistan first. If you’ve set a new normal, build the wherewithal to live up to it.

● Build further with Russia but avoid being drawn into any camp. Democratic India’s destiny is not anti-Westernism. Keep stability in the positive turn with China and let both sides consummate what’s in their common interest. Remember, China doesn’t need to fight us now. They can do so through Pakistan. Keep the focus there.

● Calm down your periphery. India shouldn’t be dealing with hostility on all fronts. Pakistan is a different issue, but dragging every neighbourhood relationship into domestic politics is avoidable. It narrows your options.

● Choose your moment and try to bring some sanity back in the ties with Washington. Trust will be distant. Remember, the Cold War isn’t returning and an anti-American/Western bloc will not rise. Once there’s peace in Ukraine, Putin and Trump will be friends again. The US and China are already busy making deals.

Learn from the Europeans. Not obsequiousness but pragmatism that Trumpian chaos will pass. Do what you can to minimise damage from it to your national interest. Wait for the America after him. These are lessons for India, drawn from a closer look through a geopolitical lens, at that Oval Office picture.