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The recently concluded assembly election results in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal largely aligned with expectations, with the exception of a new political party emerged victorious in Tamil Nadu. Certain theories have been established through these results: the communists, as a political party, are not yielding significant outcomes. Although there are individuals who subscribe to their ideology, they have been unable to expand their political base to encompass a larger segment of society.
Their debates and protests are limited to a specific section of the population. They did not perform well in Tamil Nadu or West Bengal, despite maintaining a relatively fair organizational presence in both the states. Kerala remains the only state that offers some degree of pride to communists.
The political system inherently prevents vacuums if the opposition fails to claim the
necessary space. Over the past two years, TVK has quietly emerged in Tamil Nadu to
fill the void that AIADMK was unable to occupy. C Joseph Vijay primarily advocated for
a central liberal ideology, targeting younger demographics instead of shifting towards
leftist policies. He refrained from engaging in the identity politics that Dravidian parties
have pursued.
West Bengal was a tough frontier for BJP in decades. Mamta Banerjee created
successful narratives through powerful social coalition and welfare policies until the
recent election results led to her removal. BJP achieved stunning electoral result in
Bengal despite lack of deep organizational structure, and this happened due to BJP’s
successful campaigning anti Mamta fatigue to majority consolidation. The disturbances
in Bangladesh have increased the feelings of insecurity within the majority community,
thereby assisting the BJP in consolidating majority votes against Mamata, a situation
worsened by her poor governance.
Similarly, Assam politics is revolving around illegal immigration and indigenous protection for last so many elections. Anti migration narrative has been primary driving force in the Assam’s election for decades now. When we consider the above findings in the context of the national political landscape, it becomes quite clear that the primary opposition party, Congress, is not deriving many lessons from their repeated losses. Under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi, Congress has shifted towards the left in recent times, leaving central policies, and there is no challenger to occupy the center-right political space, which is making BJP unstoppable.
In marketing, the elements of Product, Price, and Place are crucial; similarly, in politics,
Neta (Leader), Niti (Policy), and Nara (Slogan) are vital for the success of a political
party. If one were to check the boxes mentioned above, it would provide a very clear
outcome in favor of BJP. In this regard, I find it difficult not to draw a comparison with the
recent political development in Hungary; Viktor Orban has ruled Hungary for the past 16
years, and his party, Fidesz, has established an invincible right-wing policy.
The opposition, primarily composed of leftist ideologies, has been unable to counter him
throughout these years. In 2024, Peter Magyar broke ranks with Fidesz and transitioned
from being a system insider to an opposition leader. Rather than aligning with traditional
leftist opposition parties in Hungary, Peter Magyar sought to promote more center-right
policies, emphasizing a stagnant economy and high unemployment. Peter Magyar and
his little-known Tisza Party succeeded in their campaigning and won the parliamentary
election held in April, 2026.
I firmly do not believe that the political ecosystem in India is so straightforward that a
Hungarian model could be implemented by any political establishment. However, it is
quite evident that our political parties lack adaptability and fail to learn from mistakes.
Therefore, it is very likely that the BJP will continue to be a formidable & dominating
political force in the coming days, unless they begin to make mistakes.
In fact, the primary challenge for the BJP will be economic factors rather than political ones. Demographically India is a young country where the current median age is approximately 29 and median age will rise approximately to 30.8 years by 2030. So,
India will remain a relatively young country for the next decade. Relatively young age
distribution will be active working age population who will be looking for employment in
coming decades.
Now more than 2 decades, we have seen Indian IT industry has contributed high on job creation directly and indirectly. NASSCOM’s various reports suggested that every IT job was already creating roughly four more jobs elsewhere in the economy, many of them held by people with only school-level education. Various report from NASSCOM suggested that IT-BPM sector employs women between 34 to 36 percent of its workforce and 50 percent of entry-level recruitment consists of women workforce. IT industry boasts one of the highest female representations in private organized sector.
The IT sector’s provision of lucrative corporate positions for women
significantly enhanced family incomes and improved their social standing. The addition
of a second income within the family has enhanced the family's ability to engage in
discretionary spending.
The Indian IT sector has been a primary engine for wealth creation, acting as the largest catalyst in expanding the country’s middle & upper-middle class. By providing millions of high-paying white-collar jobs, the industry shifted India’s economic profile from agrarian to service-led, empowering a massive demographic with high disposable income and global purchasing power.
Unlike traditional savings-heavy demographics, tech professionals fuel a massive chunk of India’s discretionary spending—buying vehicles, lands, international travel, consuming hospitality services, kid’s education and modern housing etc.
While historically dependable on social mobility, the IT sector is changing
rapidly. The integration of artificial intelligence and widespread automation is threatening entry-level and traditional IT jobs. AI’s biggest success yet has been its ability to write code. That’s why the deepest job cuts have been in tech companies; as a result, upward mobility is becoming increasingly competitive. Recent reports suggest that IT hiring has fallen to 28 months low & almost 17 percent drop Y-O-Y.
The aspirational middle class will face challenges in achieving upward social mobility due to
the prevalence of lower entry-level jobs, stricter immigration policies globally, and the
unfulfilled aspiration of attaining significant success within the IT sector. Till now IT
industry has been playing a crucial role in maintaining socio-economic stability in the
country and in all probability, IT sector may not play same role going forward. It will be
interesting to observe whether decent engineers will find employment opportunities in
the upcoming years, both within and outside the IT sectors.
The IT boom occurred during a crucial period for the nation. The mid-90s were some of
the most economically troublesome years in the history of independent India. It was
during this time that the IT industry emerged as a significant advantage for India and its
economy. Suddenly, even a student from a small town possessing an engineering
degree and functional English could compete with graduates from metropolitan areas &
global workforce.
This advantage led to the emergence of a new class of salaried employees and dispensable income. In a similar way, the current government must identify additional sectors capable of generating a significant number of white-collar jobs and mitigate the domino effects coming from the slowdown of IT industry.
Given the geopolitical circumstances, it is only a matter of time before India allocates over 2% of its GDP to national security; thus, the defense sector could emerge as the new IT sector of this decade. Furthermore, India must develop its own capabilities across various sectors to reduce reliance on foreign nations and address the trade deficit; consequently, these identified sectors may serve as job creators, fulfilling the aspirations of the aspirational middle class.
The government must implement reforms to serve as a catalyst for industry, with a focus on creating quality job opportunities. In conclusion, the economic challenges will take center stage over political challenges for the current government in coming days. The government enjoys an advantage in terms of political stability and electoral dominance.
It has the opportunity to consolidate its position through effective economic management; however, it is essential to recognize that a political void never exists in a functioning democracy, and there is always a new model that makes the existing one obsolete. So, both the government and the opposition should return to the drawing board to reassess and redefine their priorities.
These pieces are being published as they have been received – they have not been edited/fact-checked by ThePrint.