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After reigning supreme for more than 30 years and cumulatively 10 terms as MLA from Rampur, Samajwadi Party’s poster boy Azam Khan lost the battle, first in the courtroom and then in the battleground as his protégé Asim Raja, contesting the Bypolls from Rampur Sadar seat on SP ticket, was defeated by BJP’s Akash Saxena with over 34,000 votes.

In a battle of prestige, the BJP’s victory in Rampur, the unvanquished bastion of the leader Azam Khan, was called by the SP as the “affirmation of its fears”. Amid allegations against the authorities of illegally using “high-handed measures” in order for the voters to avoid voting (especially Muslims), an overall 33% voter turnout entails the low polling and a wide gap between Muslim-dominated and Hindu-dominated booths. While BJP’s Akash cornered 62% votes, Azam Khan’s aide and SP candidate Asim received a mere 36% vote in an Assembly constituency where almost 65% of the electorate are Muslims. But focusing on the demography and geo-political nature of the population’s existence and the electorate might help in ascertaining the outcome. About 80% of the Muslim community resides in urban areas and Hindu form a majority in rural areas; although the Rampur Sadar constituency is largely urban wherein 2.7 out of 3.8 lakh voters come from. In the urban areas which are dominated by Muslims, saw a voter turnout of 28% while the rural areas, where Hindus consolidate the majority, witnessed a turnout of 46%. For Rampur becoming Azam Khan’s prized possession, it was urban areas that traditionally helped him win the seat but the SP veteran remained flabbergasted after seeing an unprecedented low voting in urban areas even after wooing the voters to go and exercise their franchise in the Bypolls.

Out of a total 325 polling booths in Rampur urban, 77 are dominated by Hindus which have nearly 68,000 voters, and it saw a turnout of 46%. On the contrary, the remaining 248 booths dominated by Muslims which has over 2 lakh voters, the turnout remained merely 23%. In more than 90 polling booths in Rampur urban which witnessed a low voter turnout of below 20% was majorly influenced by Muslim community. In fact, in some Muslim areas of Rampur urban, voting touched a low of 4% to 7%. In the seven booths of Peela Talab, the voting remained at 4%, while in booths of Kothibale Road and Bazariya Himmat, the turnout remained 5% and 7% respectively. In Samajwadi Party’s stronghold area Qila in Rampur which holds 17 booths, where the party’s district office is stationed and the loyalists of the Yadav family-Azam Khan clan reside saw a voter turnout of just 24%. At Sarai Gate and Ghosiyan polling booths, the highest voting was recorded in a Muslim-dominated booth in Rampur urban with 39% while the three booths of Zila Krishi Office on Mohd Ali Johar Marg, witnessed highest polling in Hindu-dominated booths in Rampur urban with 74% turnout. The rural belt, where a considerable chunk of Hindu population resides and where the BJP enjoys a support base saw a cheerful turnout mostly in favour of the saffron party. At few booths in Rampur rural, voting went up to 80% but at 32 polling booths, which are Hindu-dominated in village, the vote percentage remained 60%. In contrast, the Muslim-majority villages saw a low voter turnout. Villages like Ajitpur, Shazadnagar, Fazulla Nagar saw a voter turnout of 30% to 40%.

BJP’s Akash Saxena and other political heavyweights who visited the Rampur Assembly constituency stressed on the benefits of “double engine growth” and being “on the side of the government”. However, Azam Khan and his brigade kept levelling charges against the state administration and police that allegedly they were “creating an atmosphere of fear to stop voters from casting their votes”. It was on a complaint of BJP’s winning candidate Akash Saxena that a case was lodged against Azam Khan in a hate speech matter, under which he was subsequently convicted and thereafter, disqualified from the UP Assembly. But SP’s record-breaking victory in Mainpuri Lok Sabha Bypolls, wherein Akhilesh Yadav’s wife Dimple Yadav even bettered late Mulayam Singh Yadav’s tally by over 2.88 lakh votes is a ray of hope for the party. The Mainpuri bypoll also acted as a catalyst for the Yadav family as Akhilesh’s disgruntled uncle Shivpal Singh Yadav made a “Ghar Wapsi” and formally joined the SP by merging his outfit PSP (Lohiya).

Amidst a crisis of confidence and fault lines being exposed, the Opposition still needs to get a drawing board for the road to 2024 General Election to resist the BJP juggernaut, as in politics one cannot be an escape artist always.

These pieces are being published as they have been received – they have not been edited/fact-checked by ThePrint.