By Nimesh Vora
MUMBAI (Reuters) – The Indian rupee is expected to largely struggle on Tuesday amid a decline Asian currencies, weak risk appetite and higher oil prices.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will slightly weaker-to-flat to the U.S. dollar from its previous close of 83.90.
The rupee was on Monday unable to take advantage of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish shift at the Jackson Hole gathering last week. The currency had opened at 83.80, before dollar demand from importers pegged it back.
This “has been a pattern”, the dips (on dollar/rupee) “just do not hold”, an FX salesperson at a bank said.
“I think its only a matter of time that we see 84 and higher and we are advising companies to hedge keeping that in mind.”
The rupee has been at a risk of dipping past 84 for a large part of this month, which it has largely avoided mainly due to heavy intervention by the Reserve Bank of India at 83.96-83.97 via public sector banks, traders say.
ASIAN CURRENCIES, SHARES DROP
The positive mood in Asia from Powell’s pivot to rate cuts did not last long. Shares and currencies declined, while the dollar index managed to recover slightly.
Markets are expected to “remain fairly quiet” until Friday when the U.S. July PCE inflation figures are published, ING Bank said in a note.
U.S. Treasury yields inched up amid a rise in oil prices. Brent crude climbed more than 3% on Monday amid worries of a widening Middle Eastern conflict.
How Asian currencies fare over the remainder of the year is largely dependant on the extent of Fed rate cuts and the U.S. Presidential elections in November.
While a rate cut has been fully priced in for next month, there is uncertainty on the size. Meanwhile, the U.S. elections are currently a toss up.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 83.98; onshore one-month forward premium at 7.5 paisa
** Dollar index up at 100.87
** Brent crude futures at $81.2 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 3.82%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $462.8 mln worth of Indian shares on Aug. 23
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $180.9 mln worth of Indian bonds on Aug. 23
(Reporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Varun H K)
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