New Delhi: US president Donald Trump’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the West Asia conflict is likely to ease pressure on global oil supply chains with the opening of Strait of Hormuz, according to trade data tracking firm Kpler.
Data from Kpler shows that as of 7 April, nearly 172 million barrels of crude and refined petroleum products are still on water in the Gulf, distributed across around 187 laden tankers. The scale of these floating cargoes highlights the backlog created by weeks of disrupted transit through the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint that handles roughly a fifth of global oil flows.
The composition of these shipments is heavily skewed toward crude. Of the total volume, crude and condensate account for 132.2 million barrels, or roughly three-quarters of all oil currently at sea in the region. Clean petroleum products (CPP) and dirty petroleum products (DPP) each make up 19.8 million barrels.
According to Kpler data, most cargoes exiting the Gulf during conflict were bound for Asian markets, particularly China and India, underscoring the region’s continued dependence on Middle Eastern crude. In contrast, flows toward Europe were largely absent, suggesting either demand-side adjustments or logistical constraints tied to the conflict.
“Cargoes that exited the Gulf during the period of conflict were predominantly directed toward Asian buyers, including China and India, while European-bound flows were largely absent,” said Sumit Ritolia, manager, oil markets and modelling refinery, Kpler.
Kpler data shows that India-bound shipments included around 4 million barrels of crude, along with approximately 600,000 barrels of other petroleum products. Around 16 Indian vessels, including 6 carrying crude, 2 LPG containers and one LNG, are stranded on the west side of Hormuz as of now.
The ceasefire, announced on 7 April between the US and Iran, has opened a narrow but critical window for tanker movement through Strait of Hormuz. “A big day for World Peace! Iran wants it to happen, they’ve had enough! Likewise, so has everyone else! The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz,” US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social.
Early indications suggest that the agreement includes a structured mechanism for maritime passage, allowing ships to resume transit under controlled conditions.
A notable share of tankers crossing the strait during the conflict period engaged in so-called “dark transits,” switching off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals while navigating the Strait and reappearing only after exiting the Gulf, cites Ritolia.
This practice points to heightened security concerns and a shift away from standard commercial routing.
The presence of such a large volume of oil still on water indicates that the supply chain remains far from normalised. However, the ceasefire has already contributed to a softening of global oil prices, which fell below $100 per barrel in the early hours of Wednesday morning, as markets factor in the partial restoration of transit through Hormuz.
Analysts note that the coming two weeks will be critical. If the ceasefire holds and transit flows resume more predictably, the backlog of tankers could begin to clear, easing supply concerns and stabilising prices further. However, the structured and selective nature of current passage arrangements suggests that risks remain elevated.
(Edited by Tony Rai)