Nitish’s ‘if you drink, you’ll die’ remark & alcohol ban will endanger more lives, deepen crisis

With about 15.8 % of Bihar's young men and barely 0.4% of its women consuming alcohol, data shows at least 65 lakh men could be susceptible to the risk of consuming substandard liquor.

Four-year-old Shrishti, daughter of Mukesh Sharma who died of alcohol poisoning, with her grandmother at their home in Hanuman Ganj village, Bihar. She points to the toys her father gifted her | Credit: Praveen Jain, ThePrint

New Delhi: In yet another hooch tragedy in Bihar, about 82 people have reportedly died from alcohol poisoning. Though there has been an alcohol ban in Bihar since 2016, both ground reality and data shows that the state does have a drinking problem.

Moreover, the state’s chief minister Nitish Kumar, a staunch proponent of banning liquor in the state, has said that no compensation would be given to those who died. While addressing the issue in the state legislative assembly, Kumar said that “if you drink you will die”.

How many people are susceptible to death by alcohol poisoning in Bihar? Using the data available in the National Family Health Survey and the census population projections for 2021, turns out a minimum of 65 lakh men could be susceptible to the risk of consuming substandard liquor in Bihar.

The NFHS-5 conducted in 2019-21, shows that about 15.8 per cent of Bihar’s young men and barely 0.4 per cent of its women aged 15 years and above consumed alcohol. The number has dropped from 28.9 per cent in the previous round of the survey (NFHS-4) conducted in 2015-16.

Alcohol consumption habits in other states

However, there is case for underreporting of alcohol consumption habits in prohibition states, Vinod Giri, director general of the Confederation of Indian Alcoholic Beverage Companies — representative body of leading Indian Alcohol Beverage Companies — told ThePrint.

There could be a case where people might have reduced the frequency of liquor consumption. However, there is no significant impact on the number of people who consume alcohol in Bihar. Prohibition has resulted in fewer people admitting their alcohol consumption habits. So they may not tell the surveyor fearing state action”, he said.

Despite that the share of men who admittedly consume alcohol is still bigger than its neighbour Uttar Pradesh, where there is no ban and 15 per cent men consume alcohol. Similarly, in Rajasthan also, despite no restriction on alcohol sales the consumption rate among men is just 11.6 per cent. Jammu and Kashmir has low share of men — 8 per cent — consuming alcohol.

Only in Gujarat where alcohol is restricted, do 6 per cent men consume the hard drinks, but it still offers liquor in special economic zones, licensed operators, non-domiciles etc., unlike Bihar.

Census population projections for the year 2021 show that Bihar is India’s third most populous state with a population of 12.3 crore, only behind Uttar Pradesh (23.09 cr) and Maharashtra (12.44 cr). Even without a ban – alcohol consumption in both Uttar Pradesh(15 per cent)  and Maharashtra (14 per cent) are quite close to Bihar, so why is it such a big issue in this state?

Economic and political costs of prohibition in Bihar

Part of it has to do with the vote bank its CM Nitish Kumar is most interested in. Post poll studies have proven that women vote in numbers for Kumar and his alcohol prohibition move made him even more popular.

However, elongating liquor ban may prove to be counterintuitive for the state — both politically and economically.

“Nitish might be banking on women voters while banning liquor, but what he doesn’t realise is that illicit alcohol is not only risky, but is also expensive. The men who snatched their wife’s earnings to buy alcohol in the past, now may have to sell their jewellery to buy the more expensive, more uncertain, life endangering alcohol. When people start dying in numbers, families are left with long lasting pain, so it’s not going to be beneficial in the long run”, Yashwant Deshmukh, founder of polling agency C-Voter, told ThePrint.

It also comes with financial costs, Giri says.

“Our estimates show that Bihar is losing out more than Rs 8000-10000 crore of excise every year. What’s worse is the fear psychosis that has been created in the name of prohibition. About 4.5 lakh cases are pending, overwhelming the judicial system. When investors come to Bihar, they don’t like the environment of fear and looking over the shoulders, so Bihar’s earning opportunities are further compromised for no reasons”, Giri told ThePrint.

“Gujarat can still manage the adverse impact of a ban on alcohol because it is a rich state and can earn its revenues from other industries, but in Bihar, that is not the case. Its has very little other industries and sources of income. Scope of private investment is low. With liquor ban, people are still spending money on alcohol but no taxes are coming in the government’s kitty. We have sent several representations to the government regarding this but have not got a response, not even an invite to present our case,” Giri added.

Deshmukh also adds that post covid-19, the Central government has been issuing free food grains to poor people, but if it stops the scheme and passes the buck onto the state government, Bihar will find itself in deep trouble.

“Tomorrow if the buck passes on to state governments or continuing the free ration scheme, the Bihar government would need funds. As more money will go out on illicit liquor, hunger will also start affecting the state’s residents. Prohibition may not turn out to be the solution,” Deshmukh said.

(Edited by Anumeha Saxena)