New Delhi: The expansion of India’s clean energy and green hydrogen potential is constrained by limited access to land and water resources, says a new report by the Council on Energy, Environment, and Water (CEEW), a Delhi-based climate think tank. By dividing the Indian landmass into 5×5 km grids and incorporating real-world constraints, the CEEW analysis is the first of its kind that maps the renewable energy (solar and wind) and green hydrogen potential across the country.
The report released Tuesday, titled ‘Unlocking India’s RE and Green Hydrogen Potential: An Assessment of Land, Water, and Climate Nexus’, lists land access, climate risks, land conflicts, and population density as key challenges that hinder India’s ability to scale up its renewable energy (RE) capacity beyond 1,500 gigawatts (GW), preventing the country from meeting its green energy targets.
A previous CEEW report said that to reach net-zero emissions by 2070, India would require a solar capacity of more than 5,600 GW and a wind capacity of 1,800 GW. Significantly, without any constraints, India has an RE potential of over 24,000 GW, the study says.
“While our RE potential is vast, the road to net-zero is fraught with challenges. From land conflicts and population density to the unpredictable but undeniable impact of climate change, every step forward will demand resilience and innovation,” Dr Arunabha Ghosh, the chief executive officer of the CEEW, said in a statement.
The study suggests that increasing India’s RE capacity from the current 150 GW to more than 10 times that amount will require strategic land use, enhanced water management, and a resilient power grid infrastructure.
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Land conflicts, high population density pose challenge
According to the analysis, India has a combined onshore and offshore wind potential of over 4,000 GW. However, over 70 percent of the offshore wind potential is found at depths greater than 500 metres and may require floating wind turbine technology for energy generation.
On the other hand, more than 90 percent of onshore wind potential is located on croplands or rangelands, creating land access issues. Expansion of onshore projects is also limited by conflicts over land and high population density, the report says. Only 29 percent of onshore wind potential is situated in areas with a population density below 250 people per square kilometre, and just 35 percent is in regions with a history of minimal land conflicts.
Experts warned that social conflicts are also likely to escalate as more land is required for development projects exceeding 500 GW. The need for additional land may lead to acquiring areas with higher population densities—over 400 people per square kilometre—that already see elevated levels of conflict over land.
The report also notes the lack of effective land use policies which can further exacerbate land conflict. For instance, without clear policies on the utilisation of wastelands, disputes between landowners and project developers may arise.
High population density and land conflicts also pose challenges for solar projects. According to the report, only 27 percent of solar potential is located in areas with a population density of lower than 250 people per square kilometre and 41 percent in areas of minimal land conflicts.
If systems are oversized by 30 percent and with a plant load factor (PLF) of over 23 percent, India has a total solar energy potential of 20,270 GW, the report estimates. However, due to seasonal variations, more than 85 percent of this potential, or 17,802 GW, may experience significantly lower solar energy output than usual during certain times of the year.
The PLF is a measure of systems efficiency.
Additionally, the study highlights that the expansion of green hydrogen projects beyond the current capacity of 5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) is limited by high land prices and the availability of uncommitted water (that is not already allocated to agriculture, industry, or domestic use). These challenges add to the existing difficulties that are faced in scaling the needs of solar and wind energy.
Electricity costs & land use policies impact the adoption of clean energy
The study also presents estimates for cost variations in electricity generation across states, taking into account both the PLF and land costs.
Levelised cost of energy (LCOE) is a measure for comparing the cost-effectiveness of different energy generation technologies. It represents the per-unit cost (typically per megawatt-hour or kilowatt-hour) of building and operating a power plant over its lifetime, divided by the total amount of energy the plant is expected to produce.
According to the analysis, at a levelised cost of energy (LCOE) below Rs 2.8/kWh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra rank as the top three states for solar potential, with capacities of 6,464 GW, 2,978 GW, and 2,409 GW, respectively.
The report also suggests that costs could be even lower in Ladakh at Rs 2.5/kWh, with a solar energy potential of around 625 GW. However, the region’s challenging terrain and lack of power evacuation infrastructure present significant obstacles to harnessing this potential.
Karnataka (293 GW), Gujarat (212 GW), and Maharashtra (184 GW) have the highest wind energy potential with an LCOE of less than Rs 3.25 per kWh. Western and southern India are projected to produce low-cost green hydrogen at under $3.5 per kilogram, with Gujarat leading at 8.8 MTPA, followed by Karnataka and Maharashtra at 5 MTPA each.
According to the report, state-level land-related provisions—such as land use conversion policies, land ceiling regulations, land banks, measures to facilitate land allotment and stamp duty exemption policies—will significantly influence future renewable energy (RE) expansion projects, which currently lack a defined format.
The analysis shows that among the 12 states with established guidelines for land use in RE projects, Madhya Pradesh and Odisha—with 2,978 GW and 1,348 GW of solar capacity respectively—could become key players in achieving India’s renewable energy goals. Their advantages include substantial land banks, robust infrastructure for power evacuation, and effective management of seasonality.
(Edited by Sanya Mathur)
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