Bengaluru: Former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda-led Janata Dal (Secular) or JD(S) managed to win just 19 seats in the Karnataka assembly elections, results of which were announced Saturday, indicating the party’s loosening grip on its Vokkaliga support base and its failure to secure minority votes.
In the 11 Vokkaliga-dominated districts of southern Karnataka, the JD(S) won just 15 of 73 seats. The Vokkaligas, designated among other backward classes (OBC) in Karnataka, are a dominant caste in the state with substantial political clout, and have traditionally rallied around the JD(S).
But under the leadership of D.K. Shivakumar, a Vokkaliga leader, the Congress party seems to have capitalised on the JD(S)’s loss. In the southern region of the state, which was once referred to as ‘Gowda land’, the Congress won 44 of 73 seats.
Of south Karnataka’s 11 districts — Shivamogga, Chikkamagaluru, Tumakuru, Hassan, Mandya, Mysuru, Kodagu, Ramanagara, Chamarajanagar, Chikkaballapur and Kolar, over two-thirds are Vokkaliga-dominated, with Old Mysuru considered a JD(S) bastion.
Since 2004, when JD(S) won its highest tally in Karnataka assembly elections, the party has consistently been a third player in the state. Its focus on the Gowda family has, however, led several leaders to leave the party, jeopardising its future. The exodus from within the party and the battle for dominance between Gowda’s sons, H.D. Kumaraswamy and H.D. Revanna, has cost the party dearly.
On Saturday, Nikhil Kumaraswamy, the actor son of H.D. Kumaraswamy, lost in Ramanagara — a seat which was considered a family stronghold. He lost to H.D. Iqbal Hussain of the Congress by a margin of 10,750 votes.
In the last Karnataka elections in 2018, the Congress had won 21 of 224 seats, 10 lower than its 2013 tally.
The JD(S) had won 37 seats out of the 224 in the 2018 assembly elections, but Gowda had still managed to make son H.D. Kumaraswamy chief minister for a second time by stitching up an alliance with the Congress.
This government was brought down in 2019 by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which had propped up Kumaraswamy as CM in 2006. Though the Congress-JD(S) coalition government lasted just around 14 months, JD(S) has been key to most electoral contests in Karnataka where fractured verdicts are the norm and majorities a rarity.
Before 10 May’s election, the JD(S) had been reduced to just 29 legislators in the lower house and has lost eight MLAs — mostly to defections, or losing a seat after the death of a sitting legislator — but managed to keep its outfit afloat by fielding dissidents from other parties.
In this election, JD(S) leaders were banking on a hung assembly, which could have given Kumaraswamy another possible opportunity to occupy the coveted chief ministerial chair if the JD(S) had managed to enter into a coalition with another party, but his hopes were dashed with Congress winning a clear majority.
In an interview to ThePrint days before polling, Kumaraswamy had claimed that the JD(S) would form the government on its own, a tall claim for a party whose influence is limited to just one region.
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Past, present and future
Saturday’s results showed a sharp dip in the JD(S) tally, the lowest since it was formed in 1999.
The JD(S) had won its highest tally in the 2004 elections with 58 seats and a vote share of 20.7 per cent. This was the first election it had contested after splitting with the Janata Dal.
Since then, it has managed to consistently remain a significant third player, bagging 28, 40 and 37 seats in 2008, 2013 and 2018, respectively, and its vote share between 18-20 per cent, indicating that the party had a loyal vote bank in Vokkaligas.
The setback to the JD(S) this year has come at a time when differences in the Gowda family have been in the news. HD Deve Gowda’s son HD Revanna’s wife Bhavani had gone public with her desire to contest from Hassan this time, but HD Kumaraswamy asked his father to deny her a party ticket.
Deve Gowda, 89, continues to be in charge of his political party to prevent an all-out war between his two sons. However, the battle for dominance within the party persists.
Kumaraswamy’s son Nikhil, who is also an actor, had contested from Ramanagara constituency after his mother, Anita, relinquished her seat. This is after Kumaraswamy had won in Ramanagara and Channapattana in 2018 and given up the former for his wife.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Nikhil had contested from Mandya but lost to Sumalatha, an independent candidate backed by the BJP, despite the fact that all seven assembly seats in the district had been won by the JD(S) in the 2018 elections.
This had put Kumaraswamy’s family on the backfoot in the battle for dominance as both the children of his brother, HD Revanna, are elected representatives. Suraj Revanna is the MLC from Hassan and Prajwal Revanna is the MP from the district.
Revanna is a former minister and sitting MLA of Holenarasipura.
Gowda is a member of the Rajya Sabha from Karnataka. He had contested in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections from Tumakuru but had lost the seat. In the same year, he had given up his Hassan Lok Sabha seat to his grandson Prajwal, who became the sole winner for the party in the general elections. This was a significant setback for the party, as the BJP had swept the state by winning 25 out of the 28 seats.
There are at least eight members in Gowda’s immediate family who are in active politics and some more waiting in the wings. This focus on family has led several leaders to move out, further jeopardising JD(S)’s future.
K.M. Shivalinge Gowda (Arsikere MLA), S.R. Srinivas (Gubbi MLA) and A.T. Ramaswamy (Arkalgud MLA) quit days after elections were announced in Karnataka. Prior to this, K. Srinivas Gowda (Kolar MLA) had quit the party, citing Kumaraswamy as the problem.
(Edited by Zinnia Ray Chaudhuri)