New Delhi: The temporary waiver on importing Russian crude could see purchases go up to 1.6 to 2 million barrels per day (mbpd) but it will not fundamentally change India’s structural dependence on the Middle East, according to market analysts.
The waiver, at best, will provide a short-term logistical buffer to India. “It cannot fully offset India’s roughly 2.6 mbpd exposure to Middle Eastern crude,” Sumit Ritolia, lead analyst for oil markets at trade intelligence firm Kpler, told ThePrint.
Indian refiners had already been importing roughly 1 mbpd of Russian crude in the recent months, and the waiver will effectively allow them to lift volumes above this baseline.
“With the waiver now in place, refiners could quickly resume purchases, potentially pushing Russian inflows around 1.6 to 2 mbpd in the near term,” Ritolia said.
The US announced the waiver Friday morning, saying the move was intended to ensure stability in global energy markets amid supply disruptions caused by the ongoing war in the Gulf region.
Announcing the decision in a post on X, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the step was aimed at ensuring that oil continues to flow into global markets during a period of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
President Trump’s energy agenda has resulted in oil and gas production reaching the highest levels ever recorded.
To enable oil to keep flowing into the global market, the Treasury Department is issuing a temporary 30-day waiver to allow Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil.…
— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) March 6, 2026
According to a licence issued by the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), the authorisation permits transactions related to Russian crude oil and petroleum products until 4 April 2026 (a 30-day waiver starting 5 March).
The decision comes as escalating tensions in the Gulf region threaten the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical maritime energy chokepoints.
Observer Research Foundation America executive director Dhruva Jaishankar told PTI that the US decision reflects growing concern among major energy-consuming nations about disruptions to global oil supply.
According to Jaishankar, large energy consumers such as the US, India and China are therefore adopting “creative measures” to ensure sufficient oil supply in global markets.
“They understand beyond a point that constraining one country will raise the global cost. So, it will have implications domestically,” he told PTI, noting that energy prices also carry political implications in the US ahead of the upcoming mid-term elections.
A short-term relief
Nearly 50 percent of India’s crude imports transit through the Strait of Hormuz, making the country vulnerable to disruptions in Middle Eastern supply flows.
“With nearly 50 percent of India’s crude imports transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the country remains highly exposed to potential supply disruptions,” Ritolia said.
“The US waiver allowing additional purchases of Russian crude over the baseload offers short-term relief.”
As of early March, roughly 145 million barrels of Russian crude remain on vessels across global shipping routes, including Indian Ocean, the Red Sea–Suez corridor and waters around Singapore, cites Kpler.
“These cargoes could potentially be redirected toward Indian ports if commercial deals are finalised,” Ritolia said.
However, the analyst cautioned that competition from Chinese buyers for Russian barrels could limit the extent to which India benefits from the waiver.
“As Indian refiners re-enter the market for these grades, the deep discounts previously associated with Russian crude could narrow significantly, and prompt cargoes may even trade at premiums if competition for available barrels intensifies,” Ritolia said.
While the greater access to Russian crude could support feedstock security and margins for Indian refiners, he said the move may not immediately translate into higher exports of refined petroleum products.
“There has been no official indication of product export curbs from the Indian government,” Ritolia said. “In the near term, refiners are likely to prioritise domestic fuel availability and comfortable stock levels.”
The export flows, according to the lead analyst, are expected to increase only after domestic demand is sufficiently met.
(Edited by Tony Rai)