Mumbai, Dec 6 (PTI) The rupee appreciated by 5 paise to settle at 84.66 against US dollar on Friday, as the Reserve Bank of India left repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent in its monetary policy decision.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday kept its key interest rate unchanged citing inflation risks, but cut the Cash Reserve Ratio that banks are required to park with the central bank, boosting money with lenders to support a slowing economy.
Forex traders said an overall decline in the US dollar and crude oil prices supported the rupee. However, weak domestic markets capped sharp gains.
At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.66 and touched an intraday high of 84.53 and a low of 84.70 against the greenback. The rupee ended the session at 84.66 against dollar, registering a gain of 5 paise from its previous close.
On Thursday, the rupee recovered from its all-time low level and settled for the day with gains of 4 paise at 84.71 against the US dollar.
“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight negative bias as the RBI lowered India’s GDP growth for FY25 to 6.6 per cent from 7.2 per cent in its previous projections,” said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan.
RBI lowered its growth forecast for the year ending March 2025 to 6.6 per cent, from its earlier projection of 7.2 per cent.
Das, however, said GDP slowdown bottomed out in the July-September quarter and has seen a pick-up in subsequent months due to festival spending and strong agriculture output.
Choudhary further noted that the demand for US dollar may also keep the rupee under pressure. However, weakness in crude oil prices and fresh foreign fund inflows may support the rupee at lower levels.
“Any intervention by the RBI may also support the rupee. Traders may take cues from non-farm payrolls report from the US. USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of 84.45 to 84.95,” Choudhary said.
The Reserve Bank in its monetary policy also decided a raise the interest rate caps on the diaspora’s foreign currency deposits, in a move aimed at attracting more capital flows amid pressures on the rupee.
Announcing the fifth bi-monthly monetary policy for the current financial year, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said it has been decided to increase the interest rate ceilings on Foreign Currency Non-Resident Bank deposits or FCNR (B) deposits as per tenors.
“With RBI keeping the repo rate unchanged, despite downward revision to growth forecast for FY25 most economist expect two quarter-point moves in the first half of 2025 which could keep even lead the rupee to test 85 levels on the higher side in long term perspective,” said Maneesh Sharma, AVP – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers.
Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said with RBI already shorting dollars in NDF, OTC and futures market, the market is just waiting for the end of December when RBI will have to either buy the dollars back or roll over the positions.
“For the next week 84.40 to 84.80 should be the range on the USD/INR pair. OMO and buy sell swaps could be the answer to improve the liquidity by RBI,” he added.
Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.13 per cent at 105.85.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell by 0.33 per cent to USD 71.85 per barrel in futures trade.
On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share benchmark index Sensex closed 56.74 points, or 0.07 per cent lower, to 81,709.12 points. The Nifty fell 30.60 points, or 0.12 per cent, to 24,677.80 points.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Friday, as they offloaded shares worth Rs 1,830.31 crore, according to exchange data.
Meanwhile, India’s forex reserves increased by USD 1.51 billion to USD 658.091 billion for the week ended November 29, the RBI said on Friday. The overall reserves had dropped by USD 1.31 billion to USD 656.582 billion in the previous reporting week. PTI DRR HVA
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