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Monday, October 13, 2025
HomeMacroSutra

MacroSutra

India saw slower growth in Q1, but consumption, non-govt investment, manufacturing were reassuring

World Bank has revised India’s GDP projection for current fiscal to 7% from previous estimate of 6.6%. Pick-up in agriculture & govt spending should lift growth in the coming quarters.

Guaranteed pensions may cause fiscal ambiguity. Govt may have to raise pension outlay for UPS

UPS seems more fiscally prudent than Old Pension Scheme, but reverses New Pension System’s equitable coverage. More spending on pension may limit space for spending on productive avenues.

Production, demand, non-food credit grew moderately in Q1. GDP report card likely to be a mixed bag

In the April-June quarter, elections, govt spending slowdown & heatwave are expected to have contributed to slower growth. Going forward, rural demand may see a pick-up.

India enjoys healthy trade surplus with Bangladesh. The political crisis can hurt trade, FTA chances

Bangladesh, a major export market for India, is already grappling with inflation & unemployment. The unrest can worsen the situation, impacting import demand.

Near-term volatility can bother Indian markets. US slowdown, Middle East tensions may spook them

Weak US jobs data signalling slowdown, interest rate hike in Japan, geopolitical tensions may trigger problems for India’s markets. RBI is prudent in holding interest rates for now.

Rising interest but only medium-term targets — why central banks are going slow on digital currencies

A Bank for International Settlements survey shows that, compared to last yr, world economies seems more likely to issue Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in medium term than short term.

Eye on debt-to-GDP — pivot in govt’s fiscal strategy post FY26 promising, amending FRBM Act will help

The full budget retains focus on fiscal consolidation. In her budget speech, finance minister mentioned the intent will be to fix fiscal deficit with debt-GDP ratio on a declining path.

In tradeoff between fiscal prudence & boosting economy, budget should focus more on demand & jobs

With a favourable macro-fiscal backdrop, the finance minister can use the additional fiscal space to either hasten the path to consolidation or support the sectors with subdued growth.

With Indian bonds now on the global radar, prudent fiscal glide path & checks on volatility become key

Inclusion of Indian bonds on J.P. Morgan’s emerging markets index may lead to more foreign investment & lower borrowing cost. Dollar inflows could imply rupee appreciation & higher liquidity.

India’s banking sector healthy, but bad student loans, retail slippages, NBFC exposure must be watched

RBI’s latest financial sector report card highlights drop in NPAs, capital buffers for banks & better asset quality for NBFCs. But new sources of risk, like climate change, have emerged.

On Camera

No Mamata Banerjee, women’s safety isn’t a curfew issue

For Indian women, the smallest unit of control becomes the family; the largest, the State. Both speak the same language.

Niti Aayog recommends fully decriminalising 12 offences under new I-T Act to ‘foster more trust’

Recommendations appear in Niti Aayog’s Tax Policy Working Paper Series–II. It says there is a need to shift away from fear-based enforcement to trust-based governance.

India, UK sign £350 mn deal for Martlet. What are these Lightweight Multirole Missiles

In service with the British military since 2019, it is also known as the Martlet missile. Ukrainians have also deployed these missiles against Russian troops.

CJI, IPS, IAS & Homebound: A wake-up call 75 years in the making

Education, reservations, govt jobs are meant to bring equality and dignity. That we are a long way from that is evident in the shoe thrown at the CJI and the suicide of Haryana IPS officer. The film Homebound has a lesson too.