scorecardresearch
Tuesday, September 2, 2025
HomeMacroSutra

MacroSutra

Moody’s US credit rating downgrade may usher in a new era—waning investor interest in US govt bonds

For the first time in over a century, world’s largest & most liquid bond market doesn’t have an Aaa rating. Over the past decade, US govt’s fiscal metrics have deteriorated considerably.

UK FTA is good news for India amid global turbulence. Domestic reforms must follow market access

For assessing effectiveness of the pact, it would be worthwhile to see if India’s share in UK’s imports & UK’s share in India’s exports see a material pick-up over time.

Waning trust in US dollar has spurred a rally in Asian currencies. Central banks may have to step in

The flip-flops on Trump’s tariff policy have led to a wave of dollar-selling. Stronger Asian currencies & weaker dollar will help address US’ trade imbalances with Asia.

India’s 4.4% fiscal deficit target hinges on solid revenue. Global conditions pose a challenge

In the current fiscal year, tax and non-tax revenue collections could take a hit. The projections will need to be recalibrated in light of the uncertain environment.

IMF growth outlook is cautiously optimistic. It seems to leave out impact of larger disruptions in US

The growth projections for the US seem to be at odds with rising probability of recession put out by various agencies. Tariffs may weigh on US & China the most.

With tariff-related uncertainties piling, India must quicken US deal talks, engage more trade partners

US consumer confidence & inflation are flashing warning signs, besides depreciating dollar. In India, weak FDI flows & volatile portfolio investments may keep financial account strained.

Beyond the US tariff pause lie threats of global slowdown, supply glut. For India, some opportunities

On 2 April, US President Donald Trump announced the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on about 60 countries, escalating global trade tensions. On 9 April,...

Credit growth likely to moderate as banks focus on liquidity. Pivot from loans to deposits likely

Loan growth is likely to stay sluggish this yr due to weak demand & cautious approach on unsecured lending. Going forward, gap between credit growth & deposit growth is likely to shrink.

Indian markets, rupee have recovered for now. The future trajectory depends on a mix of factors

March has been a good month for equity & currency, backed by FPI inflows & weak dollar. Going forward, tariffs, Chinese markets, oil prices & corporate earnings may have a role to play.

IMF suggestions on fiscal, financial, labour reforms amid global risks are notable. India must pay heed

While IMF welcomes India's shift towards debt-based fiscal anchor, it recommends improvements to the framework, besides endorsing ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​exchange rate flexibility & other steps.

On Camera

India has 30 days to pull off fast reform. Hold crash meeting of Centre & state

In India, we are accustomed to glacial change. We love appointing Committees to ‘look into’ reform. Unfortunately for us, the rest of the world moves fast.

A Rs 33,000 cr ‘banking fraud’: ED’s case against Arvind Dham, Amtek’s web of ‘500 shell companies’

ED has accused Amtek promoter Arvind Dham of controlling web of nearly 500 shell companies operating as a layered structure, with up to 15 levels of indirect ownership, to divert funds.

‘Real-time, all-climate’ explosives detector could enhance airport & border security—no dogs, no swabs

Bengaluru-based CeNS designs accurate, portable, and cheap sensor using surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy. It could significantly reduce risks at vulnerable choke points. 

For Indian Mercedes, Asim Munir’s dumper truck in mirror is closer than it appears

From Munir’s point of view, a few bumps here and there is par for the course. He isn’t going to drive his dumper truck to its doom. He wants to use it as a weapon.