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Saturday, January 3, 2026
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MacroSutra

UK FTA is good news for India amid global turbulence. Domestic reforms must follow market access

For assessing effectiveness of the pact, it would be worthwhile to see if India’s share in UK’s imports & UK’s share in India’s exports see a material pick-up over time.

Waning trust in US dollar has spurred a rally in Asian currencies. Central banks may have to step in

The flip-flops on Trump’s tariff policy have led to a wave of dollar-selling. Stronger Asian currencies & weaker dollar will help address US’ trade imbalances with Asia.

India’s 4.4% fiscal deficit target hinges on solid revenue. Global conditions pose a challenge

In the current fiscal year, tax and non-tax revenue collections could take a hit. The projections will need to be recalibrated in light of the uncertain environment.

IMF growth outlook is cautiously optimistic. It seems to leave out impact of larger disruptions in US

The growth projections for the US seem to be at odds with rising probability of recession put out by various agencies. Tariffs may weigh on US & China the most.

With tariff-related uncertainties piling, India must quicken US deal talks, engage more trade partners

US consumer confidence & inflation are flashing warning signs, besides depreciating dollar. In India, weak FDI flows & volatile portfolio investments may keep financial account strained.

Beyond the US tariff pause lie threats of global slowdown, supply glut. For India, some opportunities

On 2 April, US President Donald Trump announced the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on about 60 countries, escalating global trade tensions. On 9 April,...

Credit growth likely to moderate as banks focus on liquidity. Pivot from loans to deposits likely

Loan growth is likely to stay sluggish this yr due to weak demand & cautious approach on unsecured lending. Going forward, gap between credit growth & deposit growth is likely to shrink.

Indian markets, rupee have recovered for now. The future trajectory depends on a mix of factors

March has been a good month for equity & currency, backed by FPI inflows & weak dollar. Going forward, tariffs, Chinese markets, oil prices & corporate earnings may have a role to play.

IMF suggestions on fiscal, financial, labour reforms amid global risks are notable. India must pay heed

While IMF welcomes India's shift towards debt-based fiscal anchor, it recommends improvements to the framework, besides endorsing ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​exchange rate flexibility & other steps.

The difference a few months can make. From a strong economic outlook, US now staring at a slowdown

In fact, the latest reading of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s nowcast of real GDP growth suggests a contraction of 2.4 percent in the first quarter of 2025.

On Camera

How Gen-Z is changing the violent extremist landscape online

The evolving extremist threat now hinges on young people online, demanding new strategies beyond traditional counter-terror models.

India’s urban co-op banks are turning the page—crisis to cautious revival, one metric at a time

With bad loans shrinking & capital buffers stronger, urban co-op banks’ new umbrella body NUCFDC is now prioritising rollout of digital transformation.

Greece looking at TATA’s WhAP infantry combat vehicle for army procurement

If deal goes through, Greece will be 2nd foreign country to procure vehicle. Morocco was first; TATA Group has set up manufacturing unit there with minimum 30 percent indigenous content.

A year-end Mea Culpa in National Interest—The Army-Islam combo doesn’t kill democracy

Many of you might think I got something so wrong in National Interest pieces written this year. I might disagree! But some deserve a Mea Culpa. I’d deal with the most recent this week.