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Sunday, October 12, 2025
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MacroSutra

Moody’s US credit rating downgrade may usher in a new era—waning investor interest in US govt bonds

For the first time in over a century, world’s largest & most liquid bond market doesn’t have an Aaa rating. Over the past decade, US govt’s fiscal metrics have deteriorated considerably.

UK FTA is good news for India amid global turbulence. Domestic reforms must follow market access

For assessing effectiveness of the pact, it would be worthwhile to see if India’s share in UK’s imports & UK’s share in India’s exports see a material pick-up over time.

Waning trust in US dollar has spurred a rally in Asian currencies. Central banks may have to step in

The flip-flops on Trump’s tariff policy have led to a wave of dollar-selling. Stronger Asian currencies & weaker dollar will help address US’ trade imbalances with Asia.

India’s 4.4% fiscal deficit target hinges on solid revenue. Global conditions pose a challenge

In the current fiscal year, tax and non-tax revenue collections could take a hit. The projections will need to be recalibrated in light of the uncertain environment.

IMF growth outlook is cautiously optimistic. It seems to leave out impact of larger disruptions in US

The growth projections for the US seem to be at odds with rising probability of recession put out by various agencies. Tariffs may weigh on US & China the most.

With tariff-related uncertainties piling, India must quicken US deal talks, engage more trade partners

US consumer confidence & inflation are flashing warning signs, besides depreciating dollar. In India, weak FDI flows & volatile portfolio investments may keep financial account strained.

Beyond the US tariff pause lie threats of global slowdown, supply glut. For India, some opportunities

On 2 April, US President Donald Trump announced the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on about 60 countries, escalating global trade tensions. On 9 April,...

Credit growth likely to moderate as banks focus on liquidity. Pivot from loans to deposits likely

Loan growth is likely to stay sluggish this yr due to weak demand & cautious approach on unsecured lending. Going forward, gap between credit growth & deposit growth is likely to shrink.

Indian markets, rupee have recovered for now. The future trajectory depends on a mix of factors

March has been a good month for equity & currency, backed by FPI inflows & weak dollar. Going forward, tariffs, Chinese markets, oil prices & corporate earnings may have a role to play.

IMF suggestions on fiscal, financial, labour reforms amid global risks are notable. India must pay heed

While IMF welcomes India's shift towards debt-based fiscal anchor, it recommends improvements to the framework, besides endorsing ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​exchange rate flexibility & other steps.

On Camera

India must fight terror but avoid being seen as acting at America’s behest: G Parthasarathy

On 19 June 2004, G Parthasarathy, India's former Ambassador to several countries, spoke at the Nani Palkhivala Memorial Lecture, examining India’s foreign policy challenges in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks.

Niti Aayog recommends fully decriminalising 12 offences under new I-T Act to ‘foster more trust’

Recommendations appear in Niti Aayog’s Tax Policy Working Paper Series–II. It says there is a need to shift away from fear-based enforcement to trust-based governance.

India, UK sign £350 mn deal for Martlet. What are these Lightweight Multirole Missiles

In service with the British military since 2019, it is also known as the Martlet missile. Ukrainians have also deployed these missiles against Russian troops.

CJI, IPS, IAS & Homebound: A wake-up call 75 years in the making

Education, reservations, govt jobs are meant to bring equality and dignity. That we are a long way from that is evident in the shoe thrown at the CJI and the suicide of Haryana IPS officer. The film Homebound has a lesson too.