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This is being keyed in at 10pm on 28 Feb 2026, on the first day of the Israel-US strike on Iran and other countries in West Asia (or Middle East,as we call it), notably UAE and Qatar. The operation named as Epic Fury by US and Roaring Lion by Israel is, despite recent internal turmoil in Iran, a blatant and flagrant violation of Iran’s sovereignty and suzerainty. As per reports available at this point of time, a strike on Tehran has killed around 70 school girls, which is extremely tragic. As happens in such situations, the picture is not very clear at this early stage. In retaliation Iran has reportedly fired cruise missiles at US military bases in the region.
While a military strike was expected, such massive and disproportionate military action by US and Israel, even as talks centred around JCPOA and Iran’s nuclear disarmament were ongoing under various intermediaries, is shocking.
The ostensible reason put forth by the US is a regime change…more appropriately, removal of Ayatollah Khomeini, setting right Iran’s abysmal human rights records etc. However, no sensible analyst, or even a lay reader (not to mention the common Iranian, who, while not happy with the Ayatollah’s regime, surely does not seek foreign intervention) is buying into that – it is about US hegemony in West Asia and its craving for Iranian oil. Iran reportedly holds between 12 to 14% of the world’s oil reserves. US, more specifically its chief executive, wants control of that. The parallel with the recent episode of Maduro’s ‘capture’ from Venezuela (again, ostensibly for drug trafficking etc) is stark…that too was about oil. Begs a question, doesn’t it?
So what’s next? Iran has threatened to block the Straits of Hormuz, an international maritime choke point through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil tankers (and other merchant shipping) pass. This is going to hit the international oil market like a lightning bolt. India too is going to be severely impacted.
Even as l write, reports pour in of Iran’s Shahed missiles/drones attacking iconic buildings in Dubai (of all places!). Who could have imagined this even 24 hours back? Lakhs of Indians in Dubai are going to be affected by this. Dubai airport, as I write, is shut down (unthinkable, given that it is the most important West Asian air hub for international fliers). Indian carriers have been asked to suspend operations to Dubai, Qatar etc and avoid the entire West Asian region in their overflights. This has serious implications for international air travel, particularly for India, for which Dubai and Qatar are important change hubs for westward travel.
So what’s to be done to diffuse a rapidly deteriorating geopolitical situation which threatens to tear the world asunder? What role, if any, can China and Russia play? There are no clear answers at this point of time. US greed and its yen for dominance/hegemony, spurred by its maverick chieftain, has been a great danger for world order and peace, ever since he assumed ‘command’, in a manner of speaking. No one has any idea where and at what point this is going to stop. Greenland, Canada as the 51st state of the US, Venezuela as it’s protectorate…where does it end?
Does the answer to today’s crisis lie in BRICS? This is a potent counter balance to USA, which, besides the countries in its acronym, also has recently included in its folds, Indonesia, Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia and UAE. Saudi Arabia is likely to be in too. With China, Russia, South Africa, Brazil and India, this can be a formidable bloc to contain, if not altogether arrest US designs. Each have their individual interests and equations with US, which they would not like to imperil. However, collectively if any coalition can stop the US juggernaut (cliched as it sounds), it is BRICS. European powers are too beholden to USA to act decisively. Individually no country, except perhaps China (which has its own economic and other compulsions/interests which deter it from taking US on in a one-on-one face off) dares to stand up to USA. Hence, even as the situation is fraught as on the last day of February 2026 solutions exist. The question is…are those in position to change things really inclined – and courageous enough – to do so? That debate is for another day. However, as l mentioned at the outset, in the first few, nascent and horrendous effects of this conflict, the world and it’s future suddenly look grimmer and bleaker
Things may get better on the morrow…and l will be more than happy to be proved wrong in my analysis. The larger point – a counter balance to USA is imperative before the world falls over the precipice of extinction at which it seems to be staring.
These pieces are being published as they have been received – they have not been edited/fact-checked by ThePrint.