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As this piece is keyed in on 19 March 26, at the end of almost three weeks of the raging conflict in West Asia, the war seems to be getting worse and its major protagonists more combative than ever, with each refusing to blink. We have a wild fire raging in the Gulf (almost literally and certainly figuratively), with belligerents attacking and completely destroying some of the most important energy sources in the world. Countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE, not parties to the conflict directly, have had to bear the brunt of Iran’s fury in having their oil/gas fields and refineries virtually bombed out of existence. Major missile strikes in the the South Pars Gas Field in Iran, the Ras Laffan facility in Qatar (and others), coupled with the near complete closure of the Hormuz Strait have dealt a devastating economic blow to not only the region, but to the world.The attendant energy crisis that the world, particularly Asia is looking at, with its financial and political ramifications, is arguably the worst that has been witnessed since the end of the Second World War. America is energy-independent and hence not as badly affected directly, even though gasoline prices have gone up there and the US stock market has been on a downward spiral.
And that is not all…we have conflicts raging between Russia-Ukraine, Pakistan-Afghanistan, even as ‘minor’ inter state feuds continue in other parts of the world, notably Africa. The Israel- Hamas war following the October 7 attacks flared and still smoulders, despite a fragile and tenuous ceasefire, which is barely holding. To list out just the flash points in 2025, there have been the brutal Sudan civil war, a repressive Myanmar civil war, Israel-Gaza war, Yemen war, the dreadful DR Congo conflict, the Sahel insurgency and so on. The US operation in Venezuela, rather inappropriately named Op Absolute Resolve was ironically, anything but that. It was pure assertion of supremacy. Closer (or rather ‘at’) home, we saw the short but extremely potent Indo-Pak conflagration, a just war, jus ad bellum , following the barbaric Pahalgam massacre. Then there are internal armed rebellions within nations. This is certainly not a world at peace.
The creator and upholder of the established world order, which is the USA, has itself forfeited it. It has sought no legitimacy for its actions, has not cared for UN approval, has not consulted NATO and most importantly has bypassed the guardrail provided specifically for such situations, i.e., the US Congress. Other big powers, such as Russia and China, in any event, with their authoritative regimes and leaders, just barely camouflaged under the cloak of a sham democracy, never much cared for rules or an internationally sacrosanct playbook. That leaves us in a difficult place.
Edward O Wilson, an American biologist, naturalist, ecologist, and entomologist, famously said: the real problem of humanity is “we have Paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions and godlike technology”. This seems to ring so true. Diplomacy, state craft, negotiations and subtlety do not seem to have a place in modern day geopolitics, even as baser and medieval instincts reign. And this in the 21st century! Barbarism, brute force, philistism and brutality seem (almost) to be the order of the day.
Besides the immediate aftermath of the ongoing West Asia war, this has larger connotations and repercussions for the world in the coming years. China may try to similarly (and given the awful precedent set), take Taiwan, Russia may try to expand (after Ukraine) to Belarus, Latvia and, who knows,even Poland, Pakistan could attempt to take much of Afghanistan, across the Durand line to achieve its mythical and delusional idea of ‘strategic depth’ against India…and so on.
So what will a changed world order look like a few years from now? Unipolar, bipolar, multipolar…or no poles? Are brute force and military/economic muscle going to be the only factors which tilt the balance of power in favour of the mightier nation? What place, if any, will established rule of law, (practiced lately more in breach than in observance), legality and due process hold? Are we only looking at anarchy and upheaval? To put it even more strongly, will there be any form of order, or we are (possibly already have) reverted to stone age form/rules, as Wilson, quoted above, prophesied? A troubling…or, the least, unsettling question.
In conclusion, if the big powers refuse in their hubris and vanity to abide by world order and rule of law, someone, notably the middle powers, such as Canada, India, Japan, Brazil, South Africa, Australia…or others, some of which are members of alternative power blocs like BRICS, have to step in, so that we can arrest the fall into the bottomless abyss that we appear to be plummeting into. All of these nations, including India, seem to be punching below their weight. We see history being written today. Would the future generations, who may only read about it, forgive us if we don’t act while we can?
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