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Brent crude oil had surged past $120 a barrel as conflict spread across West Asia. Tankers avoided key shipping routes, energy infrastructure was dysfunctional and global markets were in disarray.
The world was possibly witnessing the early stages of a new global contagion.
Not a biological pandemic — but a war-demic.
A war-demic is the economic contagion unleashed when geopolitical conflict ruptures the networks that keep the global economy running. Energy flows, shipping routes, commodity markets and financial systems transmit the impact far beyond the battlefield.
COVID-19 paralysed the global economy by accident. A war-demic can do the same through political whim.
The pandemic killed an estimated 15–20 million people worldwide. But the damage went far beyond hospitals and morgues. Aircraft were grounded, ports clogged, factories fell silent and supply chains fractured. The lesson was stark: in a tightly interconnected world, disruption travels with extraordinary speed.
War can trigger the same chain reaction.
Modern conflicts rarely remain confined to battlefields. Behind the images of missiles and air strikes lies a quieter but equally destructive process — the disruption of economic systems that sustain daily life.
Energy markets are usually the first transmission channel.
Roughly one-fifth of the world’s traded oil — nearly 20 million barrels a day — passes through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime corridor linking the Persian Gulf to global markets. Any threat to that passage immediately rattles energy traders.
A recent pause announcement from the US briefly reduced oil prices on Monday. But the benchmark contract — Brent crude oil — has again surged above $100 a barrel as conflicting claims emerged over US-Iran talks.
Energy installations across the region — including refineries, pipelines and storage terminals — have been damaged or forced offline by recent hostilities. Even limited disruptions can trigger sharp price volatility because the global oil system operates with little spare capacity.
Once energy prices surge, the economic contagion spreads quickly.
Higher oil prices push up transportation costs and electricity tariffs. Fertiliser becomes more expensive because nitrogen fertiliser production depends heavily on natural gas. Agriculture becomes costlier, pushing food prices upward.
Within weeks, consumers thousands of kilometres from the conflict zone begin paying the price of a war they may barely follow in the headlines.
Shipping disruption forms the second channel of contagion.
Conflict transforms major sea lanes into zones of uncertainty. Tankers and container ships face the risk of missile strikes, naval interception or sabotage. Insurance premiums surge and shipping companies reroute vessels to avoid danger.
Journeys become longer. Freight costs rise. Supply chains — already weakened by the onset of the war-demic — come under renewed strain.
Commodity markets respond quickly. Rising energy and fertiliser costs push agricultural prices upward while exporters hedge against volatility. Import-dependent countries face rising food bills and widening trade deficits.
Financial markets amplify the turbulence further. Investors rush toward perceived safe havens such as gold and government bonds while equity markets swing sharply as traders reassess global growth prospects.
What begins as a regional conflict soon becomes a global economic disturbance.
For India — which imports more than 85 per cent of its crude oil — sustained prices above $100 a barrel carry serious consequences. Higher energy costs feed inflation, pressure the rupee and increase fiscal burdens through fuel subsidies.
The war-demic therefore extends far beyond the countries directly involved in the conflict. Its economic effects ripple across continents. Inflation in Europe, food insecurity in Africa and economic instability in Asia can all become indirect outcomes of decisions taken in distant capitals.
But the impact is not purely financial. It is human.
When economies fracture, people move. Factories close, transport costs rise and small businesses struggle to survive. Workers migrate in search of jobs. Families abandon towns where livelihoods have disappeared.
Cities hollow out not only because of bombs but because economic life drains away.
War destroys more than infrastructure. It dismantles the economic ecosystems that allow societies to function.
The COVID-19 pandemic revealed how vulnerable the global economy can be when confronted with a biological threat.
The war-demic reveals something even more troubling: comparable disruption can arise from political decisions.
Pandemics emerge from nature and governments struggle to contain them. Wars arise from choices made by leaders.
Viruses mutate. Wars escalate. But only one of them is deliberate.
The pandemic showed how quickly globalisation can grind to a halt. A war-demic shows how easily political choices can bring the world to a standstill again.
COVID shut down the world by accident.
A war-demic could do it by choice.
Aloka Sengupta
L 002, Adarsh Palm Retreat Condominiums
Bellandur, Bengaluru 560103
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Aloka Sengupta is a Bengaluru-based healthcare specialist with keen interest in international affairs and geopolitics
These pieces are being published as they have been received – they have not been edited/fact-checked by ThePrint.