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Last two days have been quite disturbing to a lot of us silent global citizens in America. Especially those of us who are Indians by birth and American citizens by choice.
Elephants do not trample every innocent life or break a tree for fun, just because they have the power. American Presidents have a elephantine power for last 100 years, but most of the times they have behaved with grace at the least, in the public eye. Today we are not. As we call PM of Canada as Governor of state of Canada not in amusement. Our closest ally and where Americans have family and friends in millions. 50% of my own family is American and balance proudly Canadian. German Minister concluding Munich Security conference was in tears and could not give his concluding remarks, but received sustained clapping from the proud participants. We could empathise with him easily. We saw Zelensky being sabotaged in the oval office the other day and were saddened. Like an Elephant trampling an adorable Doe, who is trying to defend its family and right of freedom. In the international leaders’ meetings, we have sacrificed grace and hidden desire of mutually respectful interaction. We see that amongst Republican and Democrats too. Do they think we appreciate? Very sad, indeed!
It may be pertinent to present a US tax payer perspective, who fund 100’s of billions. Firstly, irresponsible European behaviour of neglecting their own security needs. They wish to hang on to American security umbrella 80 years after WW2. They have been warned, again and again but they take no cognisance. In the year 2011 at the Munich security dialogue, US Secretary of Defence Mr. Gates warned Europeans. That there was Zero appetite in the American tax payers to support European security needs for eternity. Europe is wealthy enough, to support their security needs. To start with you need to spend 2% of the GDP on defence, as American tax payers are shouldering very large part of the cost of NATO (28% even in 2023 & even 1% is too much). From 2016, President Trump has been showing his displeasure again and again. Now Europeans are saying that he has moved the goalpost from 2% to 5%. It is almost like an indulgent single child in a family. Why don’t you say that you have spent 3% and feel confident of taking care of European security? And add that you do not need any assistance in Europe? And USA is free to deploy thousands of soldiers and equipment back home to save money or to Asia Pacific the new area of contest. We know that Gratitude is scares commodity in Europe. Even then, we are surprised when “Europeans” feel betrayed!!
Let us look at 2023 statistics, with some close approximation, to check ground reality. Europe’s GDP in 2023 was 17.1 trillion Euro and the defence spend was 279 billion Euro an increase of 10% over 2022. At 2% it should have been 340.2 billion Euro. It is 61.2 billion Euro lower than what is agreed in the NATO. This has gone into improving std of living in Europe, I assume. 62 billion is very close to Saudi Arabian defence spend (5th Largest spender) in 2023. America spent 3.4% of the GDP at 916 billion Dollars. Europeans have enjoyed peace in the past 75 years, unlike thousand-year history. That peace dividend (600 to 700 billion over past 10 years) has been applied for improving std. of living alone. Why? American tax payer, Uncle Sam, is here forever!!
Disparities on trade: On the trade front US had a trade deficit of Euro 157 billion with European union in 2023. That distorts American jobs and employment opportunities in manufacturing. As an example, we buy European cars and not focus on the local car industry that is worth 1 trillion dollars per annum. It has a very large share in employment too. This significant industry is losing its edge very fast, because we are lethargic in supporting manufacturing. So many rust towns across USA are witness. When was the last year when US had a trade surplus with Europe? That was in 1975!
So, if we demand reciprocal import tariffs and balanced trade; is it far away from fairness? And if President Trump imposes 25% tariffs on Europe they are pissed! Why don’t you say that we can buy oil and gas and balance the trade? Well, we buy Russian oil and gas. Enemy is better than best friend for a few dollars higher transport coat. That is Europe and ungratefulness! European trade imbalances on one hand and funding their security by American tax payers’ is not acceptable to new America. Faster EU understands this and acts on it, the better. We have not seen one prominent European leader mention these facts. On the contrary, possible new German chancellor talks today of freedom from America. God bless you all Europeans, please leave US coattails for good!
American pivot to Indo Pacific: The new multipolar world is emerging and that shall reshape the world for next 50-100 years. China is already second largest economy in the world and an influential nation. Back to the place where it belongs after a lapse of 150 years, the shameful years of western dominance and forced opium addiction.
Similarly, during 150 years of colonial exploitation of India approx. 46 trillion Dollars of Indian wealth was stolen by UK( Capitalism & Extreme Poverty Science Direct.com) converting India into poorest country in the world. Just in 1947 Indian share of global economy was 3% and Britain was 25%. And now in 2020’s Britain is back to 3% where it deserves to be. Exception of course of the time when colonial exploitation and slavery were sources of national income. We tend to forget that for 1800 of last 2000 years of human civilization; India and China were the top two economies, 40 to 50% of the global GDP. In the new world order both India and China shall be in the top 3 economies of the world. No one can stop it, especially colonial Europeans.
If western bloc wants to slow down the arrival of new multipolar world order, they need India and Russian federation to be on their side or at the least NEUTRAL. We can see the attempts by USA, EU, France, Germany, UK to woo India to their side. QUAD, Strategic Partnerships, Free trade agreements, Indo-pacific strategy, FDI into India, seeking Indian professionals for short term employment in tech, medicine, service sectors are some of the examples to see this trend. India is playing safe and keeping its options open. A war with China will distract Indian resources from economic magic to Kinetic mess for Indian people. Even an unequal war with Pakistan will be a distraction from the main purpose of economic prosperity and a significant role to play in the world. Sometimes even I have been exasperated by Indian insistence on QUAD not being Military alliance. But that is so smart, we should be envious of the key policy framers who are playing it beautifully. India’s time-tested friend Russia seems to be going too close to China for Indian comfort since the Ukrainian war. If Russia becomes a part of China axis there are very limited options left for India but western nations. There are many indications that Russia is not comfortable being a subordinate power to China. As we know there are old border issues and claims of China on Stalingrad. The 9 dots redline of China is there too (HAHAHA) just like in Arunachal Pradesh. It is in India’s interest that the shadow of China is not falling on the Indo Russia friendship. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has offered an opportunity.
Trump team is also weighing this multipolar world order dilemma. First, we need to slow it down and then shape it in a way American dominance continues in the next century.
On Russian federation! The economic sanctions have not worked at all. 2023 EU growth was 0.4% while Russia has 3.6%. Inflation in EU was 3.4% and Russia 5.8% still very much under control. Average unemployment in Russia 3.08% while in Europe 6.2%. There is no collapse of Rouble as was predicted by the western economist. With massive Oil and Gas reserves, great mining and mineral products, Global fertilizer and wheat supply capacity Russia will do well into visible future. The wage and benefit corrections done in last three years have encouraged migration of workers from central Asian republics to Russia solving human resource issues. Russian military industrial complex appears to be working well. Add support from China and North Korea and they can continue to fight for quite some time into future. Any signs of coup or loss of power from Putin or regime change looks like hope of Putin haters alone.
If we (USA) can provide Russia a face-saving closure to the madness of the Special Operation in Ukraine, it shall create a leverage to keep Russia out of a subservient position to China. So, what if Ukraine needs to be sacrificed for the greater good of a super power? It has been done many times before. Superpowers are never Magnanimous; they have interests, that is all!
If Trump and the strategists behind him are playing this strategy, that is OMG! Really great way forward for tomorrow’s world. What happens when Russian Federation is fully supported by USA and India? US equals China and the weight of Russia and India tilts the balance or balances out any imbalance for the long-term peace and prosperity of human society. We get peace and its dividend pulls out another 600-700 Million humans out of poverty in Asia and Africa. Europe can be a balancer of course. However, they need to lick their wounds, spit out pride. That they are the centre of the world. And become a strong economic, military power to look after its own interest. Today they do not qualify as a player of significance. There are interesting developments right in front of us, for sure!
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