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The invasion of Ukraine has blown the cover off of the hypocrisy that has become international diplomacy. Worryingly for the US and it’s military allies the invasion has also shown how old, sticky and sluggish the US and it’s military organisarions have become to react to a crisis that is akin to a slap on its face. India has taken a balanced stand but hopefully it learns a lot of lessons for itself from this unfortunate situation and prepares itself accordingly for an increasingly uncertain world.
–Nijoe Joseph
The current crisis in Ukraine had been simmering for months, even years, unlike popular belief that a HoS had gone bonkers in a fit of rage one fine morning. Maybe dissecting the crisis would help us be less judgemental & more realistic.
In 2004, NATO added its largest expansion of 7 new members (including fmr Soviet Baltic republics) & by 2009, hinted at including even Ukraine & Georgia into its fold, crossing Moscow’s redlines. What followed next was a “military operation” in Georgia. Later Putin famously said that Russians and Ukrainians are one people who effectively occupy the same historical and spiritual space or in desi terms, somewhat in the lines of Roti-Beti relationships in the subcontinent. Perhaps the clandestine support for groups in “Novorossiya” might hint at this soft-corner for “NRRs” in Ukraine. On the other hand in US, Former U.S. National Security Advisor Brzezinski, in early 1994 in Foreign Affairs, stressed that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire. Maybe this has led to fanning of Ukrainian aspirations of joining NATO & sounding alarm bells in Moscow. (Similar to India being rattled by the visuals of a Chinese submarine docking in Hambantota, Russia couldn’t allow US bases/missiles or even nukes just next door). This was evident from the fact that post 2014 Crimean crisis, US aid increased from 200 mil USD to 600 mil USD, apart from the substantial tangible support provided by US military. In 2020, Ukraine became one of just six enhanced opportunity partners, a special status for among the closest NATO allies, such as Australia(though some polls in Ukr suggested that 50-60pc of ppl supported joining only EU & not NATO). Now, with President Zelensky dragging his feet on the Minsk Agreement assurances for Donbas region, Russian troop buildup began in spring 2021 & through the autumn of 2021, even got deployed in regions of Belaros & Crimea. Meanwhile, modern-day Chamberlain, Emmanuel Macron of France assured the World that he had guarantees that there would be no conflict after his meetings with Putin & Zelensky. Mediation through Triliateral Contact Group & Normandy Four got complicated for Russia insisted on including representatives from LDR/LNR which Ukraine dismissed as Russian proxies, much like the historical position of India dismissing the Paki demands of including Hurriyat in Kashmir talks. The critical point of current conflict can be owed to the 17th Feb announcement by leaders of the DNR and LNR of evacuation of their civilian populations to Rostov, in Russia, due to Ukrainian shelling & claims of intent to recapture the region into its fold. By 22 February, some 90,000 refugees had arrived into Russia, followed by Putin announcing their independence. For the uninitiated, this is also a Deja-Vu to the historically well documented 1971 liberation of “Bongo-Desh” in the Indian-subcontinent. So Indian diplomats must have been the best astrologers of the Russian course of action that followed. What’s baffling that how the lone Superpower of the Globe(albeit with an 80 yr old HoS) couldn’t reach to common grounds with Rus over the issue?. But it’s also worth mentioning that the Afghan “liberation” had ended & maybe World needed a new masala, a new conflict. Not to forget that most of the current administration in US is filled by either sympathisers, board members, lobbyists of almost all Defence Behemoths in US, be it Raytheon, Northrop-Grumman, Boeing, Lockheed etc. including current Def-Sec Austin being a fmr board member of Raytheon. Also, Blinken co-founded WestExec Advisors in 2017, which developed a fund called “Ridgeline Partners” whose subsidiaries include companies that have received government contracts, including some deals with the US Department of Defense.
The outrage over India not voting in favour of West’s public admonishments at the UN(even though technically India abstained and not voted against them) is unprecedented. Maybe this was their moment of driving a wedge b/w Delhi & Moscow with Delhi then looking at West for most of its defense needs(going ahead) being the sought-out end goal. But as Putin once referred to long Hindu philosophy, Indian foreign policy stood its ground & not yielded to pressures. What should contend the West is the rare moment when India has almost criticized its Special & Privileged Strategic Partner Russia in its public statements at the UN. Also the absolutely racist thought process of Western intellectuals lamenting at the state of “white, blue-eyed people” of the “civilized” part of the world(in their eyes) has unmasked & bared the hypocrisy of their “lectures/preaches” before the World.
Surely this conflict & reactions by the West has taught that everything can/will be weaponized to serve national interests or create/sustain narratives. Be it payment systems, flights, Space/satellites etc. A blessing in disguise for proponents of Atmanirbhar Bharat going forward then, eh!
–Arunobh Banerjee
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