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The world system is experiencing one of its most tumultuous periods since the end of the Cold War. Major power rivalry has escalated, regional wars have become more unpredictable, and global institutions appear increasingly incapable of managing crises. In this era of increased uncertainty, India finds itself in a position of unprecedented importance—and pressure. Its foreign policy decisions now are more than just reactive answers to global chaos; they are determining India’s long-term future in a swiftly fragmenting world order.
A world characterized by overlapping crises.
The current global environment is controlled by several overlapping tensions, rather than a single confrontation. The war in Ukraine has cemented bloc politics, the crisis in West Asia has destabilized energy markets, and the Indo-Pacific region has emerged as the primary arena of strategic struggle. At the heart of this is the growing rivalry between the United States and China, a conflict that is increasingly technological, economic, and military in nature.
Current conflicts are linked to global supply lines, climate risks, and financial institutions in a way that the Cold War wasn’t. India’s foreign policy encompasses diplomacy and defense, as well as trade, energy security, digital governance, and development.
Strategic Autonomy, Recalibrated
People often mistake India’s long-standing commitment to strategic autonomy for inactivity or hedging. In fact, it is a belief that has changed over time. During times of relative global stability, autonomy meant being far away. In today’s crazy world, this means interacting without being on the same page.
India’s growing ties with the US, Japan, and Australia don’t stop it from working with Russia or being in talks with China. The point isn’t to find balance just for the sake of balance. Instead, you should be flexible so you can move around in a world that isn’t always predictable. This is why India might work more closely with Washington on defense while still keeping its energy and security ties with Moscow.
Managing the Chinese Challenge
No foreign policy issue challenges India’s strategic maturity more than its relationship with China. The unsolved border problem and ongoing military standoffs have radically altered the tone of bilateral relations. Trust has eroded, and interactions are now wary, transactional, and strictly monitored.
However, India has resisted the urge to define China entirely via antagonism. Diplomatic lines remain open, multilateral engagement persists, and economic disengagement has been selective rather than complete. This balanced strategy reflects an understanding that China is both a security threat and an unavoidable regional reality. The goal is deterrence without escalation and toughness without diplomatic collapse.
India’s main theater is the Indo-Pacific
As the world turns its attention eastward, India’s foreign policy imagination has been more and more focused on the Indo-Pacific region. In this way, India sees itself as a stabilizing force with its own interests, not as a junior partner to any other country. Maritime security, freedom of navigation, and strong supply chains are not just ideas; they have real effects on India’s trade, energy flows, and power in the region.
India’s involvement in minilateral conferences and regional groups shows that it wants to work together in a practical way rather than through rigid alliances. This approach lets India help keep the region stable without getting involved in conflicts that could limit its strategic choices.
Foreign Policy as Statecraft, Not Signaling
When things get uncomfortable, people really want to act dramatically. India has mostly said no to this. Currently, its foreign policy is based on a preference for quiet diplomacy, small wins, and strategic patience. This doesn’t mean that you aren’t ambitious; it just means that you know that credibility comes from being consistent, not from showing off.
India’s job is to keep doing things this way as the needs of the world grow. To be strategically independent, we will need to make harder choices, set clearer goals, and make sure that institutions work together at home. But if India handles the current period of global tension wisely, it may be able to set up rules, norms, and relationships that are in line with its own interests and values.
In a time of uncertainty, India’s foreign policy strength comes not from picking sides but from picking outcomes. India’s foreign policy right now isn’t based on urgency, but on what will happen next. The choices made during this time of global stress will create economic, strategic, and institutional paths that will last long after the current crisis is over. India’s problem isn’t that it needs to act faster than other countries; it’s that it needs to think more clearly in a system that is becoming more unstable and impulsive.
India’s most important diplomatic asset is now strategic restraint, which is often seen as wisdom. It helps India avoid making promises too soon, getting too involved in wars between great powers, and keeping its power in different areas. But you can’t choose to stay quiet. India has shown that it is more open to talking about its interests in global governance, supply chains, development funding, and sovereignty without turning them into ideological fights.
As global institutions get worse and alliances get stronger, middle powers like India will have more of an effect on outcomes by setting the agenda instead of being in charge. India’s reputation is based on its ability to make independence work. This means having stable relationships, diplomacy that is easy to understand, and a strong internal capability. India’s foreign policy is now closely linked to how it handles its own problems. India’s foreign policy is very much affected by its industrial policy, technological know-how, energy resilience, and ability to work together with other countries.
Finally, India needs to show that being restrained is not the same as being weak, but rather a smart way to be strong. India’s focus on results may offer a unique kind of stability in a time when many states have to pick sides. This stability is based on strategic clarity rather than neutrality.
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About the author:
Anusreeta Dutta is a columnist and climate researcher with experience in political
analysis, ESG research, and energy policy.
These pieces are being published as they have been received – they have not been edited/fact-checked by ThePrint.
