New Delhi: Myanmar military’s brutal violence against the general population after the 1 February coup has hardened people’s resolve to resist through strikes that paralyse governance and the economy, a new report has claimed.
This is nudging the country closer to “state collapse”, the report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) released Thursday, adds.
Based in Brussels, the International Crisis Group is an independent, non-profit organisation, with staff spanning five continents, working through field-based analysis to prevent and resolve deadly conflict.
Titled “The Cost of the Coup: Myanmar Edges Toward State Collapse”, the group’s latest report states that military generals at the helm of the coup “may control the trappings of state” but are unable to “impose their will on the country as a whole, maintain order, or govern and deliver services effectively”.
It adds that the country’s basic ministry functions, local administration, public hospitals, the banking system, ports, and road and rail transport remain “paralysed”.
Refugee flows to neighbouring countries like India and Thailand are also a sign of the deteriorating situation, the report says.
Regarding Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh, the ICG predicts it is even less likely that they will “be willing or able to return home”.
The coup in Myanmar began on 1 February after the detention of civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi and power was handed over to Army chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. The bloodiest day of protests was on 27 March, Myanmar’s Armed Forces Day, when the military killed over 90 unarmed citizens, though ICG says this figure is as high as 158.
One positive observation from ICG is that a post-coup crisis could foster solidarity between the Burman majority and ethnic minorities and even a “corresponding political realignment”.
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No clean exit for Army chief
When the military took control of the country two months ago, it announced plans to hold another round of general elections after a one-year period of emergency.
However, ICG predicts that the instability and violence in the country “would not offer the military a clean exit and Min Aung Hlaing the clear path to the presidency that he desires”.
The group’s report also states that as protesters adopt more violent tactics, an “urban armed resistance cannot be ruled out”. Some ethnic armed groups may be drawn into conflict against the Myanmar army too, it adds.
It observes that protests and military violence have crippled economic activity and can affect foreign investment. It cites incidents of arson attacks against many Chinese-owned or funded factories in mid-March, which provoked a strong response from Beijing.
China appeared “angry with the military for bringing about such instability”, says the report.
This, despite Beijing, along with Moscow, blocking a UN Security Council statement condemning the coup two days after it began.
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Banking systems hardly functioning, food insecurity looms
The ICG report also notes that the banking system in the country is “hardly functioning”.
“The banking system is hardly functioning, transport and logistics are crippled, and ports paralysed, sending the country spiralling into economic crisis.”
Apart from banking facilities, mobile payment apps have also been limited.
“Efforts to force banks to reopen will fail when staff are terrified to leave home, and raids on branches that are open – to arrest unruly customers demanding their deposits – only spread panic,” says the report.
The military’s threats to nationalise banks that do not comply will only lead to a bank run, it adds. A bank run occurs when several customers withdraw their money fearing the bank may cease to function in the near future.
“Market dysfunction is increasing, and prices of many staple foods have surged,” the report notes.
Last month, the UN World Food Programme warned of growing food insecurity in Myanmar, especially among poor families that were already struggling with reduced incomes because of the Covid-19 pandemic.
‘Government should impose sanctions, arms embargoes on bilateral basis’
Myanmar is a part of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the report urges other countries in the economic bloc to not recognise the junta as legitimate but engage with it to address the ongoing crisis.
Due to Russia and China’s presence in the UN Security Council, the report suggests that other countries in the council should impose targeted sanctions and arms embargoes against the junta on a bilateral basis.
The US and UK have imposed sanctions on Myanmar’s two military conglomerates, while the EU continues to threaten similar action.
“Governments willing to call out the military in strong terms should do so in parallel through the UN General Assembly and Human Rights Council,” it adds.
The report also urges Western and Asia countries to take a unified approach and engage with the Committee Representing the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH) — a group of elected MPs recognised by Myanmar’s people as legitimate.
(Edited by Rachel John)
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