New Delhi: From highlighting the dilapidated state of Moscow’s military and its struggles in the invasion of Ukraine to spying on Kyiv’s top military and political leaders, a cache of leaked ‘top secret’ US intelligence documents reveals the extent of the Pentagon’s infiltration into the Russian security grid as well as that of its ally.
The trove of documents also exposes US eavesdropping on other allies, including South Korea and Israel.
Sensitive information disclosed includes Russia’s apparent involvement in damaging a gas pipeline operated by a Canadian company, South Korea’s resistance to American pressure to supply weapons to Ukraine — which would fly in the face of Seoul’s domestic policy not to supply ammunition to war-struck countries — among others.
These revelations come days after these papers were first circulated Friday on social media platforms Discord & Telegram, before they appeared on Twitter and other platforms. However, reports suggest that these papers could have been circulating online as early as late February, or the first week of March.
“An interagency effort has been stood up, focused on assessing the impact these photographed documents could have on US national security and on our allies and partners,” Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said Sunday.
Until Saturday, pictures of many of these leaked documents were still accessible on Twitter, with owner Elon Musk indicating that he had no intention of removing them from the platform.
Yeah, you can totally delete things from the Internet – that works perfectly and doesn’t draw attention to whatever you were trying to hide at all
— Harry Bōlz (@elonmusk) April 7, 2023
Also Read: ‘Worst leak’ since Snowden? US launches probe after intel on Ukraine war, China surfaces online
What do these documents reveal?
American analysts suggest that roughly 100 documents were leaked, in what “seems like a massive counterintelligence problem”, Representative Mike Gallaghe, a member of the House Intelligence Committee, told The New York Times.
The documents contain information from various US agencies such as the Pentagon’s Joint Staff, the National Security Agency (NSA), and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
Some of these intelligence papers also appear to have been acquired under Washington’s Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), a federal law that does not allow the distribution of intelligence without the permission of the attorney general.
According to The New York Times, the documents appear as hastily taken photographs of papers sitting atop magazines on a messy table. On reviewing the material, former officials noted that they were likely pocketed and taken out of a secure area to be photographed.
Of the clutch of documents circulating online, one shows the casualties suffered on both sides of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Russia has lost roughly 189,500-223,000 soldiers, with 43,000 killed in action. On the other hand, the leaked document suggests that Ukraine lost relatively fewer troops, with 1,24,500-1,31,000 casualties — 17,500 of whom were killed in action — as of February.
In one of the worst leaks for the US since NSA agent Edward Snowden fled to Moscow a decade ago, these leaked papers reveal that American security agencies received ‘real-time warnings’ on Russian strikes and their targets. Washington then shared this critical information with Ukraine.
The leaks also highlight Washington’s insights into both the Russian — exploiting Moscow’s highly compromised military agencies — and Ukrainian armies, including an assessment of Kyiv’s weakened air defence system after repeated attacks by Russian missiles and drones.
While in the early days of the invasion, the Ukrainian military was able to defend itself against Russia’s poor aim and intelligence, these papers now reveal that Pentagon officials are concerned. The US estimates that Ukraine’s stocks of missiles for the Soviet-era S-300 and Buk air defence systems — making up 89 per cent of its defence system — will be fully drained between mid-April and the first week of May.
Similarly, Kyiv’s air defences to protect frontline troops will be depleted by 23 May, which will allow Moscow to bring its fighter jets and bombers to the war, further creating an immense challenge for the Ukrainian armed forces.
Kyiv has already altered some of its military plans because of the leak, a source close to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told CNN.
Currently, the documents put the number of Russian fighter jets deployed in the Ukraine theater at 485 compared to Ukraine’s 85.
They also expose the degree to which the US has infiltrated the Russian Ministry of Defense and the Russian mercenary organisation Wagner Group. One of the documents exposes Russian General Valery Gerasimov’s plans to counter NATO tanks supplied to Ukraine, by creating different ‘fire zones’ and training Russian soldiers on the vulnerabilities of different tanks.
The papers also include a CIA assessment on Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad, apparently showing that its senior officials encouraged officials and citizens to protest against judicial reforms proposed by the Netanyahu government.
Impact on Russian-Ukraine war & US allies
While Ukrainians insist these documents are altered or faked, with Zelenskyy’s advisor Mykhailo Podolyak claiming that the leaks were meant to sow distrust between Ukraine’s partners, this expose could do immense damage to Kyiv’s fight against Russia.
The pages leaked also reiterate the view often accepted by security officials that the US has a better understanding of the Russian military than of the Ukrainian forces. US officials are concerned over the consequences of the leak, which raises doubts about Washington’s credibility and further complicates relations between allies.
An official from a member of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing arrangement of the US, Australia, Canada, New Zealand & the UK said that the alliance expects a damage assessment from Washington in the next few days.
“We are poring over these documents to figure out if any of the intelligence originated from our collection,” the official told CNN.
(Edited by Tony Rai)