New Delhi: As US president Donald Trump’s five-day deadline for peace talks expires this Friday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has indicated that if the US launches a land invasion, Tehran will open another war front for them in Bab El Mandeb, a chokepoint that connects the Red Sea with the Arabian Sea and accounts for 12 percent of the global crude oil supply.
“If the enemy wants to take action on land in the Iranian islands or anywhere else in our lands, or to inflict costs on Iran, we (IRGC) will open other fronts for them as a surprise,” an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) official told Iran’s Tasnim News Agency. “The Bab al-Mandeb Strait is considered one of the world’s strategic straits, and Iran has both the will and the ability to create a completely credible threat against it.”
This warning emerged after multiple reports suggested the US was considering occupying or blockading Kharg Island, which handles 90 percent of Iran’s crude exports, to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. “If the Americans want to think of a solution for the Strait of Hormuz with stupid measures, they should be careful not to add another strait to their problems and predicaments,” a military source told Tasnim News Agency.
The threat to Bab El-Mandeb has dramatically expanded the theatre beyond the already congested Strait of Hormuz—which has crippled the global energy markets. The Brent crude prices, which were around $72 per barrel, has increased to more than $110.
Iran, from its end, announced five conditions for a truce: an end to US-Israel’s aggression, Iranian sovereignty over Hormuz, an end to hostilities across the region, reparations for damages incurred, and security guarantees ensuring the war doesn’t start again.
Importance of Bab El-Mandeb
Bab El-Mandeb—whose Arabic translation is ‘Gate of Tears’ or ‘Gate of Grief’—enables the transit of nearly a trillion dollars worth of energy supplies cargo annually. Located between Djibouti and Yemen, The strait is a vital route for vessels transiting Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Its prominence increased after the inauguration of the Suez Canal in 1869.
Even though Iran does not have a direct border with the strait, it can exert pressure through the Houthis in Yemen, who have long been supported by Tehran. The close relation with the Houthis would allow Iran to disrupt the shipping lane without any direct naval confrontation. This tactic has been in play in recent times, with the Houthis attacking Israeli-linked vessels, using Iran-supplied drones, amid the destruction of Gaza.
With Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, any disruption to the Bab El-Mandeb—a strategic chokepoint where the US counters threats from its military base in Djibouti—would exacerbate strained global oil supplies. The world’s largest oil supplier, Saudi Arabia, has been redirecting oil through the Red Sea.
Any disruption to Bab El-Mandeb would force ships to transit through the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, increasing travel time and operational costs and contributing to rising energy costs. Such a move, analysts say, would sustain global pressure on the US to come to a truce.
(Edited by Madhurita Goswami)
Also Read: How Iran choked Strait of Hormuz & why it’s not easy to break the blockade