New Delhi: On Thursday, Chinese President Xi Jinping rolled out the red carpet for his Russian counterpart and close friend Vladimir Putin in Beijing in a strong show of unity.
Putin was given a guard of honour by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and the two sides came out with a statement pledging a “new era” of partnership. The two-day state visit comes in the backdrop of Moscow pushing troops in Ukraine.
In the second edition of ThePrint Instant Analysis, Deputy Editor Snehesh Alex Philip and Principal Correspondent Keshav Padmanabham discuss the two-day visit of the Russian president to China.
KP: It’s (Putin) his first visit since the start of his fifth term and the two leaders have met over 40 times both physically and virtually in the last decade that they’ve been in power together. What is the significance of President Putin’s first visit after the start of his fifth term to Beijing?
SAP: Well, exactly what you said, the significance of this visit is the fact that this is his first after his new term. Remember that even the previous time, during his last term also, China was his first visit. Now, why his visit to China is very important is because there is a growing axis that the world is seeing now — the Russians and the Chinese are getting closer day by day. So, if you remember that even before, right before the Russia-Ukraine war, the Russians would call it a special operation, but for the rest of the world, including us, it is Russia’s war against Ukraine. The Russian president had gone ahead and met with Xi Jinping. And at that time, it was speculated that Putin actually advanced his operation towards February, rather than starting it in summer, which would have been the ideal time to launch the operation. So yes, so that’s why it’s very important because this is part of a growing relationship or an axis that you can see with China, Russia, North Korea, Iran.
KP: Right, and this growing axis comes because both of these leaders look at the US as an issue holding their growth back and that the West is a problem for both their countries, which is why they’ve declared it a no-limits partnership and they call each other, my dear friend or my old friend. So there’s this personal ties that they try to show to the world that it’s a personal relationship as far as the two leaders go. But then this specific visit, it comes a week after President Xi was in Europe. While he was in Europe, he met with the French President Emmanuel Macron, the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
KP: So, what is Xi trying to do here? He visits Europe and then Europe’s arch enemy, Putin comes a week later. So what is this sort of meeting signifying there?
SAP: Well, as I said, this is Xi Jinping going and visiting Europe, which is an important market for him. Now, one would always think that the Western world is one when it comes to China. Right, for example, now you have the US which has imposed a heavy tariff. You also had the UK summoning the Chinese envoy and accusing them of spying. But it’s not that the Western world is together when it comes to China.
There is deep division within Europe on what the policy is supposed to be adopted when it comes to China. So the visit of Xi Jinping to Europe was significant. But at the same time, they should not be linked to what the Russian visit to China is. I think Xi is following his own larger policy, keeping his own country’s interest in mind. And as you mentioned earlier, the fact is that they’re looking at the US as the common enemy.
SAP: But Keshav, I would like to know what happens to India in all this. Russia was India’s closest friend.
KP: Right, and this is the conundrum that India faces, especially with its focus on a multi-alignment foreign policy. Its traditional partner has always been Russia. Increasingly, people have commented that India is becoming closer to the US, that it’s seen as a part of the Western side. And India has tried to make that clear that it is not. But the China question will also affect the India-Russia ties, given that ties between Beijing and New Delhi for the last four years have been complicated. It’s been tense.
There are these border issues. And Russia is one of the largest defence exporters to China and India. So that’s significant in our thinking, because how do you stay very close friends with somebody, when they’re also very close friends with one of your geopolitical competitors. So that’s something that Indian foreign policy thinkers, especially within the government, are looking long and hard at.
SAP: Well, I would not use the word geopolitical competitor for China. It is an adversary as far as India is concerned. And that adversarial role of China has been visible for long, but has been visible out in the public since 2017, when the whole Doklam incident happened.
But, interesting is that many in the security establishment, in the defence and security establishment are closely following this increasing cooperation between China and Russia.
Well, as you viewers would know that Russia has been a traditional ally. Actually, there’s this picture of Indira Gandhi right behind us. And it is during her term when Russia and India started coming closer. And even though we are trying to diversify our defence from where we procure the defence equipment, the fact is that at least 80 percent of our defence equipment comes from Russia. And that is a concern for the country, for the defence planners.
Why it’s a concern is because if you have growing relations between Russia and China, there could be a point where China could actually leverage and ensure that the Russian supplies to India does not come at the right time. For example, let’s talk about the S-400 air defence system. Now, the S-400 air defence system, China was the first customer for that. The fact is that India had ordered five S-400 air defence system; it’s called the S-400 Triumph. But only three have been delivered so far. Now, this entire delivery has been delayed. The delivery, the other two are expected to come by 2025 end, which means more than one year from now. Now, there are also a lot of other spare parts issues, there are ammunition, missile issues, supply issues that have come about.
Well, you can always blame it on the Russia-Ukraine war. But as defence planners, you have to prepare for the worst. So, the worst is let’s assume that maybe, if there’s a conflict with China, and we have to depend on Russian supplies, and what if Russia actually delays it under some sort of pressure? I’m not saying that Russia will do it. But these are the probabilities that one has to keep in mind when it comes to this. And that is why the Indian establishment, the foreign policy, the defence, and the security establishment is closely following this particular trip that Putin has undertaken to China.
KP: Right. And just to add to that, you’re right, when we’re looking at relationships, it’s, and people will say, it’s the economy stupid. It’s a very common phrase. China and Russia’s trade ties touched 240 billion dollars last year. Whereas, India, Russia ties, we are chief importers of their oil, especially after the sanctions, but it’s nowhere close to even 200 and to even 100 billion. So, when you add on to that, there’s a lot of money going between Moscow and Beijing, and New Delhi and Moscow.
SAP: Well, China is a key ally through which the Russians are able to circumvent the sanctions. For example, in 2022, somewhere in August, that’s when the war had just started in February, so it was in the middle of the war that I was in Russia. And while I was in Russia for an official assignment, none of the credit cards were working, the Visa and Mastercard (cards) were not working. The only credit cards which are actually working, where the Chinese credit cards, the Chinese banking system, that’s what keeps Russia going.
KP: Yeah. So, there you have it, when it comes to defence, when it comes to the economy, there’s a lot that India has to think about when it comes to China, Russia.
SAP: And that brings us to the end. The end of this, but thank you viewers for logging in here to ThePrint’s YouTube channel and watching us. Do keep a track of this particular new segment that is there, The PrintAnalysis. It’s not just us, you will also have other reporters discussing the big news developments happening in their area of focus. So, thank you once again for logging in here at ThePrint. This is Snehesh and Keshav signing off for now.
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