New Delhi: This year has seen elections in over 60 countries, with the results making it a “tough” year for incumbents, and while Right-wing populism or the Far-Right stayed strong in some cases, cultural polarisation and the impact of international conflicts on domestic politics contributed to the results as well, the Pew Research Foundation has said in an essay.
Published Wednesday, the essay, which analyses four Pew research reports, three published in 2024 and one in 2022, indicates that incumbents who went to elections in this period have either lost power or returned with reduced majorities across the globe.
The phenomenon is true for India, where the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party lost its majority in elections earlier this year, and the United States, where the Democrats lost the White House and the US Congress.
Among other countries, the essay noted that in the UK, the Labour Party returned to power after 14 years with political power “swinging” from the Conservative to the Left. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s party lost its majority in the national assembly. Opposition parties in Ghana, Portugal, Panama and Uruguay also won their respective elections.
The election results in South Korea led to one of the most dramatic outcomes, with President Yoon imposing martial law in early December to fight what he called a “parliamentary dictatorship” by the Opposition. However, within hours, the national assembly had voted to lift the martial law, which Yoon accepted. Since then, he has survived an impeachment motion last week but may not survive the second one this Saturday. Courts have banned him from travelling abroad, and his former defence minister is under arrest.
In another upset documented by Pew, Botswana, for the first time in 58 years, saw a change in government, with the Botswana Democratic Party losing the presidential election and reduced to four seats in the parliament.
In South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC), which has led the country since 1994, lost its governing majority for the first time in three decades. Similarly, in Japan, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner, Komeito, lost their majority this year. In France, the snap election called by President Emmanuel Macron ended in a fractured mandate.
Economy & dissatisfaction with incumbents
The Pew essay cited economic challenges as the common factor that made it a tough year for incumbents. Citing an earlier Pew report published in June, the essay pointed out that 64 percent of its respondents across 34 countries rated their economies negatively.
In the June survey, 82 percent of South Koreans rated their economy negatively, and 76 percent of Japanese respondents expressed the same sentiment. Even Sri Lanka, which went to elections later in the year, saw seven-in-ten respondents rate their economy less than favourably. All of them are countries where incumbents have faced setbacks or lost power completely.
Dissatisfaction with democratic systems has been another reason for a tough year for ruling parties. Published in June, a Pew survey found 54 percent of respondents surveyed across 31 countries dissatisfied with the way their democracy was working.
In the US, 68 percent were dissatisfied with their democracy and its functioning. At the time of the survey, the Democrats controlled the White House and the senate and had only roughly 10 fewer seats than the Republicans in the house of representatives. However, by November, all of it changed, with President-elect Donald J. Trump winning the White House and the Republican Party winning both the senate and the house of representatives, completing the trifecta.
In France, 65 percent of the respondents were dissatisfied with how their democracy had been functioning, with the Far-Left and Far-Right making gains in the elections earlier this year.
Right-wing populism is here to stay
According to the essay by Pew, Right-wing populism has become embedded widely in the democratic systems of Western nations. France, Romania, Portugal, Germany, Austria and the UK have all seen Far-Right and Right-wing populists gain ground, following “frustrations” with the political class within those countries.
The European parliamentary elections saw France’s National Rally — led by Far-Right firebrand Marine Le Pen — win 31.5 percent of votes. In Romania, a Right-wing candidate, Calin Georgescu, received the most votes in the first round of its presidential elections. Georgescu, a dark-horse candidate, allegedly received support from Russia, and the constitutional courts annulled the results of the first round of votes.
In Germany, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) won a state election — the first time a Far-Right political party did so since World War II. Reform UK, the party of Nigel Farage, polled around 14 percent of all votes in the British parliamentary elections.
Chega!, a Far-Right political party in Portugal, won 50 seats out of 230 in this year’s elections — up from 12 in 2022 and just one in 2019 — according to Pew.
However, the populist Left has also seen few victories in the last year. Mexico’s Left-wing MORENA party won the presidency for the second straight time in line with the popularity of outgoing president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. MORENA also won outright majorities in both legislative chambers in Mexico.
“Whether on the Right or Left, populist parties have been able to capitalize on voters’ frustrations with elites — and the belief, shared by many, that establishment parties and leaders are out of touch with ordinary citizens,” notes the essay by Pew.
Culture wars & international conflicts
The growth of populist parties across democracies has also led to deepening polarisation between culture and identity in several countries, according to Pew.
In France, Le Pen’s National Rally focuses on defending the country’s “culture and civilisation”. In Austria, the Freedom Party, the largest party in the parliament, opposes the rights of LGBTQIA+ persons.
The sharpening polarisation has led to “culture wars” playing out across several electorates, especially in the US, where most recently, the house of representatives has seen arguments in support of restrictions on the usage of bathrooms of transgender persons after Sarah McBride became the first-ever openly transgender lawmaker in the country.
The Russia-Ukraine war and Israel’s war on Gaza played a significant role in the 2024 elections, according to Pew.
“In many nations, there are ideological divisions over how to deal with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with support for Kyiv often lower among those on the ideological Right,” noted the essay by Pew.
In Europe, Slovakia saw a pro-Russia president elected earlier this year. The Israel-Gaza conflict has led to tensions within the Left, according to Pew. In the UK, the Labour Party lost a few seats to the Left, which has been critical of its stance on Israel. Meanwhile, in France, the Left stands accused of anti-semitism by the centrists for its critical stance on Tel Aviv.
(Edited by Madhurita Goswami)
European politics desperately needs a right-ward shift, especially in France and Germany. The Left-liberal political parties have ruined Europe – its society and economy.
A staunch and aggressive stance against Islamic migration to Europe is absolutely necessary to protect European society, culture, heritage, values and principles.
Coupled with a dose of capitalism, it can propel Europe forward.