New Delhi: Global population will peak in the mid-2080s, after which it is projected to decline and stabilise by the close of the century, according to the latest findings from the UN report “World Population Prospects 2024”.
The estimated likelihood of the world’s population peaking within this century is now at 80 percent, a significant increase from the 30 percent probability projected by the United Nations a decade ago.
The 2024 revision report, released by the Population Division of the United Nations’ Department of Economic and Social Affairs, predicted the global population would reach approximately 10.3 billion in the 2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024. The sample size of the report is 237 countries.
According to the report, one out of every four individuals in the world lives in a country where the population has already reached its peak.
In 63 countries, the population peaked before 2024, and these include China, Germany, Japan, and Russia. In 48 countries including Brazil, Iran, Turkey, and Vietnam, the population is expected to peak between 2025 and 2054. The remaining 126 countries, including India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the United States, are projected to continue growing in terms of population through 2054, potentially peaking later in the century or beyond 2100.
The main driver of global population through the mid-century will be the momentum created by growth in the past. For certain countries, immigration is also expected to offset population decline caused by persistently low fertility rates and an ageing population.
The report said the number of women aged 15 to 49 is expected to increase by 200 million from 2024 to the late 2050s.
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Countries with young populations and declining birth rates have a limited time to benefit economically from a growing working-age population. The report suggested that most countries which peaked by 2024 and those which will peak by 2054, have missed this chance.
However, around 100 countries will see their working-age population grow faster than the total population until 2054, creating a demographic dividend. This “demographic dividend” offers an opportunity for economic growth, but it requires investment in education, healthcare, infrastructure, and job creation to be fully realised, the report said.
By the late 2070s, the global population of people aged 65 and older was projected to reach 2.2 billion, surpassing the number of children under 18, while by the mid-2030s, the number of people aged 80 and older will exceed the number of infants under one year of age, the study added.
After the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been renewed emphasis on boosting life expectancy. Globally, life expectancy at birth will reach 73.3 years in 2024. A continued decrease in mortality rates is predicted to boost the global average life expectancy to around 77.4 years by 2054.
The report highlighted a significant shift in global fertility rates, as it has fallen from 3.3 births per woman in 1990 to 2.3 in 2024. Women today bear one child fewer, on average, than they did around 1990.
Notably, nearly one-fifth of countries, including China, Italy, and South Korea, are experiencing “ultra-low” fertility rates – below 1.4 live births per woman over a lifetime.
The report also drew attention to the adverse effects of early childbearing with 4.7 million babies, or about 3.5 percent of the total worldwide, being born to mothers under the age of 18 in 2024, while 340,000 were born to girls under 15.
The UN suggests promoting gender equality and empowering women as crucial to managing population changes. Investing in girls’ education and delaying marriage and childbirth in countries where these occur early will improve women’s health, education, and workforce participation, the UN has said.
Devangi Jain and Siya Gupta are interns with ThePrint
(Edited by Tikli Basu)