New Delhi: Like in previous run-ups to the US presidential elections, the ongoing polls had its fair share of drama and bizarre moments. If Harris’ ‘Coconut tree’ quote unleashed countless memes, then Trump’s raised fist after being shot at in an assassination attempt became the subject of an iconic photograph.
Similarly, US President Joe Biden shook the election campaign by pulling out of the race in July amid questions over his health. Vice-President Kamala Harris then became the Democratic presidential candidate.
In the other camp, as Donald Trump went from becoming presumptive nominee to Republican candidate, he was found guilty of hush money payments in May and indicted in two different cases for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2020 election.
Even without all this drama, the US has a unique electoral system where the choice of the voter doesn’t necessarily translate to who becomes president. For instance, in 2016, Hillary Clinton actually got more votes but Trump became the president because of the Electoral College system.
As voters in the US make their way to polling booths Tuesday, ThePrint explains how the election system in the US works and looks back at the 2024 election season.
Election cycle
The spring before the election date, the presidential candidates usually announce their intention to run and register with the Federal Election Commission. A candidate must be a natural-born US citizen, at least 35 years of age, and a US resident for at least 14 years.
Beyond that, there are few strict deadlines for filing as a candidate, which is why Harris was able to start her run in July. Both Trump and Biden announced their candidacies last year.
In the summer of the election year, states and parties hold presidential primaries (run by state and local governments) and caucuses (run by political parties), generally six-nine months before elections. Here, people (registered voters or party members) vote for their preferred candidates through secret ballots.
This determines how many delegates are assigned to the candidate. These delegates then go on to select the final party candidates at the national party conventions—formal events where the major parties announce their candidates. Since the US is largely a two-party system, the Democrats and Republicans dominate the scene.
In August, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) said 99 percent of delegates backed Harris in five days of virtual voting. The results were certified at the convention later.
Trump beat out the likes of former UN ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to become the presumptive nominee in March when he crossed the threshold of 1,215 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. His nomination was certified at the Republican convention in August.
While Trump chose Ohio senator J.D. Vance as his running mate, Harris went for Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.
Presidential debates between the nominees of the major parties are held between 30-40 days ahead of Election Day. The earliest debate ever, 131 days ahead of election day, between Biden and Trump in July proved a disaster. Biden’s shaky performance put the final nail in the coffin of his electoral ambitions. The debate between Trump and Harris was on a more equal footing, with both of them largely going head-to-head in opinion polls since then.
While over 245 million are eligible to vote, only 161 million people are registered voters and, according to the University of Florida Election Lab, nearly 82 million have already cast their ballots in early elections as of Monday. Data also showed that almost an equal number of people from both parties had voted in advance.
Trump has been critical of early voting, which started in Alabama 11 in September, claiming the results can be manipulated. Still, trends show that more Americans have begun voting in advance, especially because it allows them flexibility. Like other aspects of the American election system, rules on permitting early voting, how (mail-in or ballot boxes), and deadlines are all left up to the individual states.
Electoral college & swing states
US presidential election outcomes are viewed through victories in Red States, Blue States, and Swing States. Red and Blue States are those where Republicans and Democrats have consistently won since at least the 1900s. For instance, Massachusetts has consistently voted Blue since 1988.
Therefore, the fight remains mainly for undecided voters from so-called battleground or purple states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Winning in the Swing States, in addition to the Red or Blue States, is what gets candidates the electoral votes needed to win an election.
Each state is assigned electoral votes based on the number of Senators (two for each state regardless of size) and the number of its Congressional districts. There are a total of 538 electoral votes up for grabs and a candidate needs to cross the 270-mark to win. For example, California that has voted Blue since 1992 has 54 electoral votes, Red State Texas has 40, and purple state North Carolina has 16 votes. Maine (4) and Nebraska (5) are the only states that allow votes to be split.
In 2020, Biden won Arizona, a first for Democrats since the 1990s, by a margin of just 10,000 votes. According to NPR, “just 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin separated Biden and Trump from a tie in the Electoral College”. And in 2016, nearly 80,000 votes combined in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin helped Trump win the presidency.
This time, too, it’s not easy to tell who will win these states. In Michigan, the state of 10 million people that Biden won with 150,000 votes in 2020, over 10,000 people voted “uncommitted” on their ballots during the Democratic primary earlier this year amid anger at US support for Israel in its campaign in Gaza. Meanwhile, Trump is accused of election interference in Fulton County, Georgia—which Democrats won last election for the first time since 1992.
According to a New York Times/Siena College opinion poll released Sunday, though Harris is narrowly ahead in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin, and Trump in Arizona, both are polling within the margin of error in the six states, meaning neither has a clear lead. In Pennsylvania and Michigan, they are tied. According to a CNN projection, based on voting patterns, Harris has about 226 electoral votes while Trump has 219. They will need 41 and 51 more votes, respectively.
This is where third-party candidates, like Jill Stein of the Green Party, or Independents like Robert F. Kennedy, could come into play. While the two-party system makes it difficult for these candidates to gain any meaningful victories, the margin of error in swing states is so small that any loss of votes to these other candidates can cost Trump and Harris the presidency.
Polls show that Kennedy, who suspended his campaign but failed to take himself off the ballots in Michigan and Wisconsin, could play spoilsport for Trump in the two states. Stein draws Democrat-leaning votes and, in light of the Gaza conflict, has the support of the Muslim-American group ‘Abandon Harris’ in Michigan. Her name is on all ballots in Swing States, apart from Nevada.
The delegates of the Electoral College get together in December to officially cast their votes for president and vice president. The US Congress meets on 6 January to certify the elections, while inauguration of the new president will take place on 20 January.
(Edited by Tony Rai)
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