The Maharashtra story may not be over yet
Swapan Dasgupta | Journalist
The Telegraph
The “drama” in Maharashtra may seem to be over and Dasgupta writes that “there is a widespread perception that the BJP bit off more than it could chew and ended up with a bout of severe indigestion”. The belief that Amit Shah, “was a larger-than-life Chanakya who could undertake near-impossible political missions with resounding success, was also punctured”.
However, this doesn’t mean that Maharashtra “will now have a stable government for the next five years” and because this alliance is “certain to be a temporary bonding”, argues Dasgupta. He says that “the contradictions that exist between the ‘secular’ Congress and NCP on the one hand and the ‘Hindutvavadi’ Shiv Sena on the other cannot be brushed under the carpet for too long”. The Congress “has a very different self-image” and “teaming up with the Shiv Sena runs the risk of its Muslim support being eroded”, he adds.
Even if “there is a fallout among the three parties and the Sena rejoins its alliance with the BJP, the price for it will be the continuation of the existing chief minister”. In conclusion, Dasgupta maintains that “it is unlikely that the BJP is going to review its aggressive ways” but it may “chip away and use its clout at the Centre to create fissures in the Thackeray-led government”. The game in Maharashtra is one of patience “aimed at seeing who has the last laugh”.
Shiv Sena-led alliance is a marriage of convenience
Sudhir Suryawanshi | Mumbai-based political journalist
Hindustan Times
Suryawanshi states that ideologically diverse parties like the Congress, NCP and the Shiv Sena “are driven by their fear of being destroyed” by the BJP and “this is what will in all probability keep them together for the next five years”.
He argues that the NCP chief Sharad Pawar “knows his party’s limitations which is why he went in for an alliance with the Sena”. Pawar also “convinced Sonia Gandhi to be part of the government, rather than extending support from outside” which “ensures that the power pie is shared by everyone” and “will contribute to the stability of alliance”, adds Suryawanshi.
He argues that the BJP tried to “destroy the co-operative network, which is the rural economy’s backbone” and the anger of the people against Fadnavis “damaged the BJP” in the rural Maratha-Kunbi dominated constituencies. Fadnavis “had created his own coterie of advisers and loyalists in both the media and the party” which led to a “virtual wall” being built between the masses and Fadnavis. Finally, “it was a humiliating exit for a man who once held out so much promise”, concludes Suryawanshi.
After the dust settles
Geeta Seshu | Independent Journalist
The Times of India
Seshu maintains that the “current political circus in Maharashtra has showcased a cynical abrogation of responsibility to constitutional values by those in power”. She questions whether “one can seriously expect any of these players to rebuild trust in the institutions of governance”.
Seshu notes that “over five years of the BJP-Sena rule, mega crore infrastructure projects have been rolled out”. However, “there has [also] been continuous conflict over acquisition of land, destruction of the environment, and lack of agency of the people affected by all these projects” and the government doesn’t seem to be listening to the people.
The new government will “have to address BJP’s larger national agenda, from the push for the controversial National Register of Citizens and the Citizenship Amendment Bill to the Industrial Relations Code Bill, 2019 which will allow further flexibility for dismantling of PSUs and contractualisation”, she writes. It also remains to be seen whether the three allies will “hold together or abrogate their responsibility to the people of Maharashtra”, concludes Seshu
Donald Trump, the disruptor
Krishnan Srinivasan | Former Foreign Secretary
The Hindu
Srinivasan claims that it is “worth assessing the choices that President Donald Trump will need to make during the rest of his first term in office and what past history indicates regarding the forthcoming poll”. He notes that Trump’s “national approval rating hovers in the low 40% range and the public has been receptive mainly to his handling of the economy”.
However, Srinivasan writes, that after the Congressional impeachment procedure, “it is now possible that he could face both primary challengers and a slowing economy”. Furthermore, “healthcare spending which constitutes more than a quarter of the American federal budget” will be a key election issue. Trump’s immigration policies “have disrupted the reforms engineered by Republican Presidents Reagan and Bush” and his trade war with China “breaks with traditional Republican orthodoxy”. In terms of Trump’s foreign approaches, “there is wide support for isolationist and protectionist policies”, writes Srinivasan.
He argues that “until a clear frontrunner emerges in the crowded field of Democratic candidates for the presidency, the incumbent President has the field to himself”.
Competition versus reservations
Jaimini Bhagwati | Senior Ministry of Finance official and World Bank Treasury specialist
Business Standard
Bhagwati calls for an end to reservations and religious affiliation-based quota as they have led to the “erosion of human capital in government”. He recommends halving reservations by 2024 and dropping them altogether by 2029.
In the first half of his piece, he examines India’s economic slowdown, the “despair… of the judicial system” and other “sad realities”. He notes that poor human capital in government has led to incompetent and “impartial decision-making” in tackling such issues. Often, support for reservations are borne out of political self-interest which breed resentment within and across communities, he writes.
Bhagwati also notes that the amendment of Articles 15 &16 that raised total reservations to 59.5 per cent is “inconsistent with a 1992 Supreme Court ceiling of 50 per cent for all reservations put together”. The increase in reservation quotas has much to do with deteriorating educational qualifying standards, he adds.
The government staff should go through rigorous and competitive processes before hiring, he suggests. “A new political party to represent the 50.5 per cent of the population who are currently excluded from reservations” is another solution, he writes.
Antibiotics are contaminating rivers and posing health risks
Suman Kapur | Senior professor, BITS Pilani
Mint
Kapur discusses water pollution in rivers and water bodies around the country due to high amounts of “myriad pharmaceutical residues”. This shows the “sordid state of affairs with the country’s handling of urban and industrial waste,” she writes. Ciprofloxacin, norfloxacin, oxytetracycline and ofloxacin are some of the antibiotics found in water bodies, she adds.
An important link between water pollution and health is irrigation. Kapur cites a finding that “pregnant women being exposed to a 10% increase in agrichemical levels in Indian rivers during their first month of conception was associated with an 11% increase in the likelihood of one-year mortality among newborns”. Polluted water bodies also alter fish behaviour, she notes.
Clean water supply and sanitation could save India “$3-8 billion by way of forgone earnings”, argues Kapur. India’s goal of cleaning its rivers by 2030 is a difficult target since the number of polluted stretches of rivers has increased in the past few years “and the ambitious plan to clean the Ganga is yet to yield tangible results”, she writes.
Private investment in the doldrums
Renu Kohli | Delhi-based macroeconomist
Financial Express
Kohli questions when private investment and business confidence will spring back after the government’s recent efforts to revive investment. When aggregate investment sank in 2013, it reflected rising uncertainty, “a dysfunctional government delaying or jamming projects”, supply bottlenecks etc., she writes. After 2014, however, inflation lowered and macro conditions largely stabilised and yet investment has been “unmoved”, explains Kohli.
This is probably due to “damaged balance sheets of banks and corporates” that are yet to “mend..[and]regain vigour”, she argues. Delayed resolution to bad loans have also infected other balance sheets, enhancing “risk-aversion, credit deficit, and costs in other parts of the financial system,” adds Kohli. ICICI’s recent close down of its project finance division also points to a potential “demand deficit for long-term investments”.
As uncertainty about demand conditions and other sources of investor anxiety clear up, fresh changes and structural reforms must still “wait to yield results”, writes Kohli. India would be “fortunate” if beliefs about future economic prospects are restored and mood around investment improves, she adds.