While declining fertility rate has slowed population growth in India, it has also created a demographic divide among states.
New Delhi: India has managed to address its population growth problem barring in two states – Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. And this disparity in the population growth rate could lead to a demographic divide and spell trouble, experts have warned.
Home to 1.3 billion people, India is the second most populous country in the world, after China. According to UN estimates, India’s population will beat China’s by 2024.
As countries across the globe celebrate ‘World Population Day’ Wednesday, the declining TFR or total fertility rate — the average number of children a woman has in her lifetime — gives a new dimension to the population debate.
India’s TFR, according to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) 2015-16 is 2.2, a significant drop from 3.4 in 1992-93.
While the declining TFR has slowed population growth in the country, it has also created a demographic divide among states.
With 0.11 billion people, Bihar alone has a TFR of 3.4, far higher than the national average. Uttar Pradesh also beats the national average mark with a TFR of 2.74.
In comparison, states such as Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have a TFR of 1.8. Even Maharashtra, which comes second after UP in terms of population, has brought down its TFR to 1.8 over the years.
When it comes to crude birth rate (CBR) — the number of live births in a year per 1000 population — Bihar beats all the other states with a CBR of 27.1. UP has a CBR of 22.6 against the national average of 18.8 (as of 2017).
States such as Maharashtra are better off with a CBR of 16.6, while Karnataka and Andhra stand at 15.9 and 16.1, respectively.
India’s population growth rate is 1.2 per cent, compared to 0.7 per cent of US and China’s 0.5 per cent.