Why Iran’s nuclear programme is back in focus & what’s the 2015 deal US wants to revive

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) sought to restrict Iran's nuclear programme, in lieu of relief sanctions. Trump exited the deal, but Biden is now looking to bring it back.

File photo of the nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, 300 kilometers south of Tehran, Iran. | Zohreh Soleimani | Bloomberg

New Delhi: Iran’s top nuclear official, Ali Akbar Salehi Monday called the large-scale blackout and power failure at south Tehran’s Natanz complex, the country’s largest uranium enrichment facility, an act of “nuclear terrorism”.

Sunday’s incident occurred a day after Iran unveiled new uranium enrichment equipment. Reports say it could take at least nine months to restore the facility’s production.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif Monday blamed Israel for the incident.

In the past decade, at least four top Iranian nuclear scientists have been killed, the most recent being Mohsen Fakhrizadeh (a brigadier general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, an academic physicist and a senior official in Iran’s nuclear programme) last November. Iran has consistently pointed the finger at Israel for this.

Though Israel has not offered a statement as yet on the blackout, Israeli media have quoted unnamed intelligence sources as saying that the country’s spy service was responsible.

This comes at a time Iran and the Biden-led US administration are attempting to resume talks on the landmark 2015 nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), that the previous Trump administration abandoned in 2018.

Last Tuesday, Iran and the US chalked out a roadmap during talks in Vienna, designed to bring them back into compliance with the JCPOA. Detailed talks are scheduled to resume. While the US will have to re-evaluate economic sanctions on Iran, the latter will have to consider steps to bring its nuclear programme in line with the terms of the 2015 deal.

Here’s a look at how the JCPOA came into existence and why the nuclear talks have been resumed.

How the JCPOA came into existence

The JCPOA was preceded by years of tension between Iran and the international community over the former’s alleged efforts to develop a nuclear weapon.

Before 2015, Iran had a stockpile large enough to create eight to 10 bombs, according to the Obama administration. Till date, Tehran has insisted its nuclear programme is entirely peaceful.

On 14 July 2015, Iran and several world powers, such as the US, signed the JCPOA which placed major restrictions on Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for relief sanctions. The world powers included the five permanent members of the UN Security Council — China, France, Russia, UK and the US— as well as Germany, known as the P5+1. The European Union also took part.

Israel, a regional arch-foe of Iran, opposed the agreement and said it was too lenient.

A report by the Council on Foreign Relations explained the motives of both sides.

The objective of the P5+1 was to scale back Iran’s nuclear programme, so that if it did decide to pursue a nuclear weapon, it would take at least one year for it, giving world powers the time to respond. Meanwhile, Iran wanted relief from international sanctions “which starved its economy of more than $100 billion in revenues in 2012–2014 alone”.

The accord came into effect in January 2016.

In 2018, however, former US President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the accord, having called it the “worst deal ever”, and put banking and oil sanctions back in place. In 2019, it was reported that India, under pressure from the Trump administration, stopped the import of oil from Iran.

A year after the US exited from the JCPOA, Iran began ignoring limitations on its nuclear programme. It resumed enrichment of uranium, restarted research and development on advanced centrifuges and expanded its stockpile of nuclear fuel.

However, the Biden administration is keen for the US to rejoin the JCPOA. During his confirmation hearing in January, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had said that the incoming administration intended to consult Israel and other regional allies about the Iran nuclear deal.

Key elements of 2015 nuclear deal

The JCPOA has three main elements: nuclear restrictions, monitoring and verification, and sanctions relief.

The nuclear restrictions on Iran included limiting the numbers and types of centrifuges Iran can operate, the level of its uranium enrichment and the size of its stockpile of enriched uranium.

Uranium that is mined has less than 1 per cent of the uranium-235 isotope, used as a nuclear fuel in reactors and as an explosive for nuclear weapons. Centrifuges are devices used to increase the isotope’s concentration. At five per cent enrichment, uranium can be used in nuclear power plants; at 20 per cent, it can be used in research reactors or for medical purposes; and high-enriched uranium, at about 90 per cent, is used in nuclear weapons.

The UN atomic watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), is also a critical part of the deal. By signing the JCPOA, Iran allowed IAEA access to its nuclear facilities and undeclared sites to ensure that the country was not developing nuclear weapons in secret. The IAEA issues quarterly reports to its board and the UN Security Council on Iran’s implementation of its nuclear commitments.

The ‘snapback’ mechanism & ‘sunset clauses’

The deal also includes a ‘snapback’ mechanism, which means that UN sanctions could be reimposed if Tehran was found to be in breach of the accord. However, this mechanism remains in effect for 10 years only (i.e. till 2026), after which the UN sanctions are set to be permanently removed.

In April 2020, the US announced its intention to snapback sanctions, but in an embarrassing show, 13 of the 15-member UN Security Council members opposed the push.

Like the snapback mechanism, the JCPOA also includes what are known as “sunset clauses”. For example, one clause states that after 2026, centrifuge restrictions on Iran will be lifted. Another of these clauses is that after 2031, limits on the amount of low-enriched uranium that Iran can possess will also be lifted.

The sunset clauses have irked Israel. Explaining Israel’s critique, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy stated that the sunset clauses will eventually “allow Iran to become a nuclear weapons threshold state” and can trigger a potential nuclear arms race in the Middle Eastern region.

(Edited by Poulomi Banerjee)