New Delhi: Israel’s military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities has raised the spectre of safety, security and safeguards in the event of a radioactive leak. Over the last five days, Iran’s four facilities across three sites in Natanz, Isfahan, and the underground uranium enrichment ‘fortress’ in Fordow have been in Israel’s crosshairs.
These “attacks could have serious implications for nuclear safety, security and safeguards, as well as regional and international peace and security”, said Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of global nuclear watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), in a statement on 13 June.
“I have repeatedly stated that nuclear facilities must never be attacked, regardless of the context or circumstances, as it could harm both people and the environment,” he said in a statement.
Now, conversations have shifted to worst-case scenarios, and what happens if U-235 and U-238, both unstable isotopes of Uranium enriched for nuclear weapons, are released. The possibility of a nuclear disaster depends on several factors, including the type of facility targeted, the size of the operations and their age.
“The extent of possible risks depends a lot on how the nuclear material and weapons are stored in these facilities,” a senior official from India’s Department of Atomic Energy told ThePrint.
ThePrint explains what could happen if a nuclear facility is bombed, and whether these strikes can end up being the next Chernobyl or Fukushima.
Reactors not targeted
The silver lining is that Iran’s nuclear power plant in Bushehr, and a research reactor in Tehran, have not been targeted.
“Most nuclear reactors are not designed for extreme events, like aerial bombing, missile strikes, or being crashed into by an aeroplane,” according to the official website of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN). It’s a coalition of non-governmental organisations promoting implementation of the United Nations Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. ICAN said that such strikes could breach the containment building and damage the reactor, potentially causing a meltdown of the reactor core.
In most countries, nuclear reactors are protected by concrete and metal structures. But if the reactor’s spent fuel pools, cooling and fire suppression equipment and other supporting infrastructure is hit, it could pose a threat. But their impact would likely be limited to localised radiation leaks and not large-scale nuclear explosions.
But so far, no strikes have been reported on Iran’s nuclear reactors, so an event along the lines of Chernobyl or Fukushima is unlikely.
Uranium enrichment sites
The next cause for concern is the strikes at Iran’s four uranium enrichment facilities including Fordow, built under a mountain. IAEA confirmed on Monday that centrifuges—machines that spin uranium hexafluoride gas at extremely high speeds to enrich the element—at the facilities were damaged by Israel’s attack. This has caused radiological and chemical contamination within the facility. But levels of radioactivity have remained unchanged outside, it noted.
Enrichment sites perform the task of eliminating Uranium-238 from Uranium-235—the primary isotopes of uranium—to make it weapons-grade.
Little is known about the extent of the underground facility at Fordow. Atomic energy experts in India said Natanz and Isfahan are enrichment sites and storage facilities. If they are compromised, the aftermath would be controlled.
“From what we know, Iran hasn’t developed any nuclear weapons yet. They just have the ingredients,” said the senior official from India’s Department of Atomic Energy. “Simply attacking nuclear material with conventional weapons does not trigger an explosion.”
This is why when Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was caught in the Russia-Ukraine war and sustained partial damage, no nuclear mishap occurred.
But localised radiation leaks cannot be ruled out. Such leaks can lead to more immediate symptoms like nausea and skin burns, and to more severe, long-term impact including cancer. They also damage the environment.
Israel’s targets
This is not the first time that Israel has targeted the nuclear energy ambitions of its neighbours while citing potential safety risks to its own existence.
In 1981, Israel struck Iraq’s nuclear research reactor Osirak, near Baghdad. In 2007, it targeted facilities in Syria’s Al-Kibar. In both cases, concrete nuclear fission had not yet started in the facilities.
The immediate trigger for the attack on Iran was a resolution by the board of governors of the IAEA. The organisation had warned that Iran was not complying with its non-proliferation obligations. It was carrying out “secret nuclear activities” in three locations, it said.
Such a breach was reported for the first time in 20 years, following which the nuclear watchdog raised the prospect of reporting this to the UN Security Council.
Iran has four primary facilities under its nuclear programme, two at Nantaz—the Fuel Enrichment Plant and the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant—and the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant and the Uranium Conversion Facility in Isfahan.
In its report, the IAEA said that three of the four facilities “were part of an undeclared structured nuclear programme carried out by Iran until the early 2000s and that some activities used undeclared nuclear material”.
But Iran has consistently denied that it is developing nuclear weapons.
(Edited by Viny Mishra)
Also read: Israel targets Iran’s Uranium cache under the mountain. How enrichment leads to nuclear weapons