New Delhi: An anonymous user on Polymarket – a crypto-powered, prediction market website – made $436,000 on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, predicting that he would be out of power before 31 January.
The account, which joined the platform in December 2025, took four positions on the possibility of a regime change in Venezuela. The $32,537 wager turned into a cash windfall after United States President Donald Trump announced the strike on Venezuela and Maduro’s subsequent capture on 3 January.
What makes this bet especially suspicious is both the timing and the quantum of the wager. Other Polymarket users also placed wagers on Maduro’s capture, making thousands of dollars. But questions were raised whether the anonymous user had prior knowledge of the US operation. Speaking to CBS Mornings, lawyer Dennis Kelleher, President of Better Markets, a non-partisan organisation that promotes public interest in financial reform, said, “This particular trade has all the hallmarks of an insider trade.”
Prediction platforms like Polymarket have skyrocketed in popularity, allowing users to bet anonymously on everything from sports and geopolitics to whether Jesus Christ will return before 2027.
Before the last US election, hundreds of millions of dollars were placed in wagers on the outcome. Eleven hours before Venezuelan human rights activist Maria Corina Machado was announced as the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, an “unusual movement” was reported in online betting markets.
Also Read: How Venezuelan media sees Trump’s capture of Maduro
What was the bet?
The account bet on two events – the US would conduct a military invasion of Venezuela and Nicolás Maduro would be forced out of leadership by the end of the month. At the time the bets were placed, the markets assigned a probability of just 6 per cent to the outcomes, according to The New Republic.
The probability of Maduro’s exit rose to 6.5 per cent by the afternoon of 2 January and 11 per cent shortly before midnight. Early Saturday morning – before Trump’s announcement that Maduro was in US custody – the probability surged.
Financial markets – like public stock exchanges – usually have rules around insider trading. Making trades leveraging non-public information is illegal. But prediction markets are less regulated. Though some, like Kalshi, Polymarket’s biggest competitor, explicitly prohibit insider trading in any form.
Under the former Biden administration, platforms like Kashi and Polymarket were on the radar of regulators, such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In 2022, Polymarket shut down its domestic operations in the US as part of a settlement over alleged violations; however, Americans could still access the service via VPNs (Virtual Private Networks).
But since Trump’s return to power, these platforms have been under less scrutiny – Polymarket is reportedly preparing to restart operations in the US. Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr, even has advisory roles at these platforms.
Though the recent controversy has reached US lawmakers, who introduced a bill on 5 January banning government employees from making trades if they possess any insider knowledge.
Polymarket’s popularity has predictably also led to some angry users, hoping to make a quick buck across its thousands of wagers. In the meantime, Polymarket users have already started betting on another US strike on Venezuela, including an invasion. The betting platform, however, announced that Maduro’s capture did not constitute an “invasion”, adding that they would settle contracts only if the US military takes control of territory.
(Edited by Insha Jalil Waziri)