Joining a China-led trade arrangement because the US is unwilling to provide an alternative is a strategic equivalent of cutting your nose to spite your face.
The Communist Party of China’s 5th plenum was attended by Xi Jinping and over 350 top officials to set the goals for achieving what they say is ‘socialist modernisation’.
Trump says WTO has been bad for the US, but economists generally believe that trade and its expansion post-World War 2 has produced large net benefits for the US & the world.
China has added new items to its list of export controls. This means ByteDance will now need Chinese government approval to sell TikTok’s US operations.
There’s a shift in sentiment in favour of Trump, even though he has spent much of his term blaming China for everything from US trade imbalances to Covid.
One of the key drivers of the global economy during the 2001 and 2008 crises, China is unlikely to feed a fiscal stimulus given its massive buildup of debt.
Greens have a sizeable support in the Western countries with clean air and blue skies, but not in India, where poisonous air, water and soil kill millions.
The helicopters produced by Lockheed Martin are known as ‘submarine hunters’. India ordered 24 of these aircraft in 2020 to replace the Sea King helicopters. 15 have been delivered till date.
The India-South Africa series-defining fact is the catastrophic decline of Indian red ball cricket where a visiting team can mock us with the 'grovel' word.
With priority given to security ideas, we may end up being a country trying our best to defend and retain our borders while our people lag economically with poor living standards.
Time will come when money spent on both defence and social welfare schemes and subsidies it will be really hard to meet the expenditure. Eventually raise taxes, raise tariffs, increase corruption so that our flawed democracy can continue it’s existence just like in the 70’s and 80’s.
Even without RCEP, we don’t have the innate ability to have high economic growth because our political parties are not able to bite the bullet. They are like a mafia that wants to stay on power at all costs and enjoy the trappings of power. Ideology dominates, whether leftist or rightist , not pragmatism.
It is doubtful with our democratic system whether we will get a leader in India like Deng Xiaoping. I am not condoning the political system and abuse of freedom by the CCP, but Deng’s economic vision has lifted the Chinese economically, never before in history have so many millions been lifted out of poverty in just 30 years. With the money they have today they can influence countries across Asia and Africa more than India does.
Well, the ideology of the BJP wants to raise the standard of living of the cow. Madhya Pradesh plans to build a cow sanctuary for tourists. It wants to put a tax for cow welfare. India has its own standards and priorities.
Power comes, it has to be arrested, for it to ‘stay’.
The RSS is practising what you preach. Power has come their way, and they want to makes sure it stays with them and no one else.
I saw your discussion with Prof Ila Patnaik also the other day on this very topic justifying our stance. In this she has clearly pointed out how it is a political decision keeping in mind security issues where especially we Indians are directly affected. She has also of course pointed out the paucity of infrastructure due to which we are presently not in a position to challenge China. Hence the decision to stay away from RCEP for the time being I feel is very prudent and justified. Let us first improve our infrastructure and then get into this sphere.
India lacks innovation, productivity, efficiency to compete with other nation that is the main issue… countries which are confident of competing don’t hesitate to open their markets ..even Japan and Australia have tense political relations with China but they are part of this agreement ..
India under fascist Hindutva regime will lack even more to compete at global level
Our aim is to create a Vedic India, so we only need to compete only with past technologies.
Everyone is just talking of “Fascist India”. Aren’t you aware that this very so called “fascist” government is trying its best to improve our infrastructure. Yes, actually I cannot blame you though. Chetan Bhagat in yesterday’s Sunday Times has rightly pointed out that the Hard Right somehow comes up with something news catchy whenever the government announces something good which then gets overshadowed. But still, don’t you know about how it is improving freight services facility through the DFCIL and so many like minded projects on the anvil?
‘Chetan Bhagat in yesterday’s Sunday Times has rightly pointed out that the Hard Right somehow comes up with something news catchy whenever the government announces something good which then gets overshadowed. But still, don’t you know about how it is improving freight services facility through the DFCIL and so many like minded projects on the anvil?’
I was told I would receive 15 lakhs. It did not come. Then I was told demonetisation would end corruption and the Supreme Leader would pluck out the eyes of the corrupt. But the corrupt exchanged their money and Amit Shah’s banks and son made a lot of money. I see failed Anil Ambani is getting public money to start a new business whereas the farmer is committing suicide. I do not know where the bullet train is. The Patel statue was supposed to generate tourist income. When it comes to ordering a riot, they excel.
Looks like you are naive. India has to follow Chinese model in opening up economy for investment not allowing unlimited Chinese consumer goods flooding the market. Indian made goods bit more expensive is acceptable.
India should follow Chinese model in dealing with human rights, labor laws and minorities.
RCEP claims will help reduce or remove tariffs on industrial and agricultural products. In short dumping imports into India without benefitting or creating jobs here. It is one-sided relationship that will benefit only export oriented amongst 15 participants. Others on RCEP don’t have big enough market and are happy with minimal promises of jobs & investment promised by rich of 15 nations. For India in net as imports/dumping will far outweigh investments if any. If they can freely dump their goods why would they invest in India
Delhi’s list of concerns includes the possibility of opening up its markets to cheap, China-made goods, with which it already has a huge bilateral trade deficit.
RCEP does not provide any guarantees on ‘rules of origin’ provision, which would determine the national source of a product. China can simply route it’s exports through Cambodia/Laos/Myanmar with no value addition and escape/hide trade surplus. Also our proposal for auto-trigger once imports reach a certain threshold or including services & movement of personnel in its ambit was not heeded to.
In short it is a treaty that will mainly benefit China and then Japan, South Korea, Australia & New Zealand. India will not benefit as some if these rich nations have restricted market access through non-tariff barriers
‘In short it is a treaty that will mainly benefit China and then Japan, South Korea, Australia & New Zealand. India will not benefit as some if these rich nations have restricted market access through non-tariff barriers.
What is the alternative India has ? Self reliance is nothing new, it was alright in earlier times when India was emerging from colonialism. What self reliance has India shown in social media ? Indians are addicted and controlled by Facebook, Whats App ?
India is confused because it wants to be a power, but is emmeshed in primitive ‘Hindu nationalism’.
After 5yrs, we will see entire Asia progress into new level of prosperity under RCEP & BRI, ursher in the golden Asia Century by 2030.
China, SK & Asean have taken up free trade competition to make themselves globally competitive for swift progress. Hence all of them have develop fast with great success, esp China & Spore. Vietnam is coming new performer.
Even Cambodia, Laos, Brunei, Indonesia, Vietnam, Myanmar are very backward & poor, they bravely embraced the first Asian lead trade block on fair term for their future.
Jp been a notorious protectionist like India, has long showing sign of stagnation and aging. They have no zest, with innovation dead in last 10yrs falling quickly behind China and SK. RCEP might be only hope to help revitalize their ailing economy.
Whereas India will find itself isolated globally, neither in Asia nor West trade block. It will be the worst performing onr among entire Asia after all other Asia countries join RCEP.
This year Bangladesh already surpass India in GDP per cap. Bhutan, Maldives and Sri Lanka have long well surpass India. When CPEC take off, Pakistan & Nepal will also leapfrog India quickly, leaving India behind as the poorest in South Asia.
Btw, India agriculture and diary productivity are the lowest among the world.
This is too “Indian” an article, trying to defend the indefensible. India knew all along what RCEP stood for ever since it started working with other nations in the grouping beginning 2012. Having spent nearly a decade on the exercise, it then has the change of mind in the last minute and decides not to join it. This U-turn in the last minute is comparable to what American under hotheaded Trump did to the Trans-Pacific Partnership conceived and given shape to by Obama administration. While in TPEP’s case, there was change of guard in the most important party to the proposed grouping, in India’s RCEP case it was mostly the same Modi regime that continued to participate in it. Thus, if nothing else, it must at least be greatly embarrassing for India to pull out at the last minute, betraying the utter lack of planning and maturity in its decision making despite the mammoth size of the country. While there is very little by way of its security or political advantage in this withdrawal, what India lost is a massive opportunity to modernize its economy, mainly its international competitiveness, and promote the much needed manufacturing sector in the country. The whole thing amounts to India recoiling back to its cocoon. For someone like me from India’s close neighbor, Nepal, this is one more déjà vu.
Is it an article or some kind of partisan drivel by the author ? Maybe his life is comfortable. By joining RECP, people from the poorer communities i.e. consumers from poorer communities in India get goods cheaply and their lives be happy. Isolationist India will never prosper. Trade with other countries is not today’s phenomenon. It is centuries old.
Just read the Oxford Economics report that India will sag to 4.5% growth upto 2025. A time for people of intellect – that includes Dr Arvind Panagariya and the Institution he headed for some time – to start speaking truth to power. One does not require an IQ of 140 to understand what this will do to India’s place in the world.
Sir,
Your view is therefore India should have signed RCEP?
We should realize that Australia and Japan , both of QUAD had joined RCEP. India was talking about look east and act east , but not joining RCEP has certainly isolated it from the East ( ASEAN , Australia and Japan). Chances are that after 18 months other countries surrounding India may join ( Bangladesh, Nepal , Central Asia etc.) and which will further isolate India. Strategic interests are not isolated from economic interests. Even in colonial days, it was the flag which followed the trade and not the vice versa. It is particularly true for stronger nations like Australia and Japan who decided to join RCEP. Expecting them to follow strategic polices against China , just in support of India, is chimerical. One can understand reservation on some economical issues but to make China a pariah does not serve. Lastly even in BRICS and SCO India and China both exist together.
Excellent perspective. Security concern must certainly prevail over all the other consideration in shaping relationship with any other nation or group of nations. Besides, invasion of Indian market by Chinese goods, there was also concern that import of dairy products from New Zeland would have adverse effect on the domestic dairy industry. It is good that India has stayed out of Border & Roat Initiative and RCEP. Keep china away like plague.
Its strange that the former foreign secretary equates economic security with political security, or even considers them on par with each other…..has he never studied history? When the Mughal Empire handed over the security its coastline to other powers, that first resulted in Arab interference in domestic affairs, and later it was the Portuguese and the Dutch, culminating in the Brits with the East India Company…….and we know what happened after that…
Political security is paramount, and any sort of external interest in domestic affairs, better be to our advantage, at ALL times.
Money comes., money goes but when Power comes, it has to be arrested, for it to ‘stay’.
With priority given to security ideas, we may end up being a country trying our best to defend and retain our borders while our people lag economically with poor living standards.
Time will come when money spent on both defence and social welfare schemes and subsidies it will be really hard to meet the expenditure. Eventually raise taxes, raise tariffs, increase corruption so that our flawed democracy can continue it’s existence just like in the 70’s and 80’s.
Even without RCEP, we don’t have the innate ability to have high economic growth because our political parties are not able to bite the bullet. They are like a mafia that wants to stay on power at all costs and enjoy the trappings of power. Ideology dominates, whether leftist or rightist , not pragmatism.
It is doubtful with our democratic system whether we will get a leader in India like Deng Xiaoping. I am not condoning the political system and abuse of freedom by the CCP, but Deng’s economic vision has lifted the Chinese economically, never before in history have so many millions been lifted out of poverty in just 30 years. With the money they have today they can influence countries across Asia and Africa more than India does.
Well, the ideology of the BJP wants to raise the standard of living of the cow. Madhya Pradesh plans to build a cow sanctuary for tourists. It wants to put a tax for cow welfare. India has its own standards and priorities.
Power comes, it has to be arrested, for it to ‘stay’.
The RSS is practising what you preach. Power has come their way, and they want to makes sure it stays with them and no one else.
I saw your discussion with Prof Ila Patnaik also the other day on this very topic justifying our stance. In this she has clearly pointed out how it is a political decision keeping in mind security issues where especially we Indians are directly affected. She has also of course pointed out the paucity of infrastructure due to which we are presently not in a position to challenge China. Hence the decision to stay away from RCEP for the time being I feel is very prudent and justified. Let us first improve our infrastructure and then get into this sphere.
India lacks innovation, productivity, efficiency to compete with other nation that is the main issue… countries which are confident of competing don’t hesitate to open their markets ..even Japan and Australia have tense political relations with China but they are part of this agreement ..
India under fascist Hindutva regime will lack even more to compete at global level
Our aim is to create a Vedic India, so we only need to compete only with past technologies.
Everyone is just talking of “Fascist India”. Aren’t you aware that this very so called “fascist” government is trying its best to improve our infrastructure. Yes, actually I cannot blame you though. Chetan Bhagat in yesterday’s Sunday Times has rightly pointed out that the Hard Right somehow comes up with something news catchy whenever the government announces something good which then gets overshadowed. But still, don’t you know about how it is improving freight services facility through the DFCIL and so many like minded projects on the anvil?
‘Chetan Bhagat in yesterday’s Sunday Times has rightly pointed out that the Hard Right somehow comes up with something news catchy whenever the government announces something good which then gets overshadowed. But still, don’t you know about how it is improving freight services facility through the DFCIL and so many like minded projects on the anvil?’
I was told I would receive 15 lakhs. It did not come. Then I was told demonetisation would end corruption and the Supreme Leader would pluck out the eyes of the corrupt. But the corrupt exchanged their money and Amit Shah’s banks and son made a lot of money. I see failed Anil Ambani is getting public money to start a new business whereas the farmer is committing suicide. I do not know where the bullet train is. The Patel statue was supposed to generate tourist income. When it comes to ordering a riot, they excel.
Looks like you are naive. India has to follow Chinese model in opening up economy for investment not allowing unlimited Chinese consumer goods flooding the market. Indian made goods bit more expensive is acceptable.
India should follow Chinese model in dealing with human rights, labor laws and minorities.
RCEP claims will help reduce or remove tariffs on industrial and agricultural products. In short dumping imports into India without benefitting or creating jobs here. It is one-sided relationship that will benefit only export oriented amongst 15 participants. Others on RCEP don’t have big enough market and are happy with minimal promises of jobs & investment promised by rich of 15 nations. For India in net as imports/dumping will far outweigh investments if any. If they can freely dump their goods why would they invest in India
Delhi’s list of concerns includes the possibility of opening up its markets to cheap, China-made goods, with which it already has a huge bilateral trade deficit.
RCEP does not provide any guarantees on ‘rules of origin’ provision, which would determine the national source of a product. China can simply route it’s exports through Cambodia/Laos/Myanmar with no value addition and escape/hide trade surplus. Also our proposal for auto-trigger once imports reach a certain threshold or including services & movement of personnel in its ambit was not heeded to.
In short it is a treaty that will mainly benefit China and then Japan, South Korea, Australia & New Zealand. India will not benefit as some if these rich nations have restricted market access through non-tariff barriers
‘In short it is a treaty that will mainly benefit China and then Japan, South Korea, Australia & New Zealand. India will not benefit as some if these rich nations have restricted market access through non-tariff barriers.
What is the alternative India has ? Self reliance is nothing new, it was alright in earlier times when India was emerging from colonialism. What self reliance has India shown in social media ? Indians are addicted and controlled by Facebook, Whats App ?
India is confused because it wants to be a power, but is emmeshed in primitive ‘Hindu nationalism’.
After 5yrs, we will see entire Asia progress into new level of prosperity under RCEP & BRI, ursher in the golden Asia Century by 2030.
China, SK & Asean have taken up free trade competition to make themselves globally competitive for swift progress. Hence all of them have develop fast with great success, esp China & Spore. Vietnam is coming new performer.
Even Cambodia, Laos, Brunei, Indonesia, Vietnam, Myanmar are very backward & poor, they bravely embraced the first Asian lead trade block on fair term for their future.
Jp been a notorious protectionist like India, has long showing sign of stagnation and aging. They have no zest, with innovation dead in last 10yrs falling quickly behind China and SK. RCEP might be only hope to help revitalize their ailing economy.
Whereas India will find itself isolated globally, neither in Asia nor West trade block. It will be the worst performing onr among entire Asia after all other Asia countries join RCEP.
This year Bangladesh already surpass India in GDP per cap. Bhutan, Maldives and Sri Lanka have long well surpass India. When CPEC take off, Pakistan & Nepal will also leapfrog India quickly, leaving India behind as the poorest in South Asia.
Btw, India agriculture and diary productivity are the lowest among the world.
This is too “Indian” an article, trying to defend the indefensible. India knew all along what RCEP stood for ever since it started working with other nations in the grouping beginning 2012. Having spent nearly a decade on the exercise, it then has the change of mind in the last minute and decides not to join it. This U-turn in the last minute is comparable to what American under hotheaded Trump did to the Trans-Pacific Partnership conceived and given shape to by Obama administration. While in TPEP’s case, there was change of guard in the most important party to the proposed grouping, in India’s RCEP case it was mostly the same Modi regime that continued to participate in it. Thus, if nothing else, it must at least be greatly embarrassing for India to pull out at the last minute, betraying the utter lack of planning and maturity in its decision making despite the mammoth size of the country. While there is very little by way of its security or political advantage in this withdrawal, what India lost is a massive opportunity to modernize its economy, mainly its international competitiveness, and promote the much needed manufacturing sector in the country. The whole thing amounts to India recoiling back to its cocoon. For someone like me from India’s close neighbor, Nepal, this is one more déjà vu.
Is it an article or some kind of partisan drivel by the author ? Maybe his life is comfortable. By joining RECP, people from the poorer communities i.e. consumers from poorer communities in India get goods cheaply and their lives be happy. Isolationist India will never prosper. Trade with other countries is not today’s phenomenon. It is centuries old.
Superbly argued.
Just read the Oxford Economics report that India will sag to 4.5% growth upto 2025. A time for people of intellect – that includes Dr Arvind Panagariya and the Institution he headed for some time – to start speaking truth to power. One does not require an IQ of 140 to understand what this will do to India’s place in the world.
Sir,
Your view is therefore India should have signed RCEP?
We should realize that Australia and Japan , both of QUAD had joined RCEP. India was talking about look east and act east , but not joining RCEP has certainly isolated it from the East ( ASEAN , Australia and Japan). Chances are that after 18 months other countries surrounding India may join ( Bangladesh, Nepal , Central Asia etc.) and which will further isolate India. Strategic interests are not isolated from economic interests. Even in colonial days, it was the flag which followed the trade and not the vice versa. It is particularly true for stronger nations like Australia and Japan who decided to join RCEP. Expecting them to follow strategic polices against China , just in support of India, is chimerical. One can understand reservation on some economical issues but to make China a pariah does not serve. Lastly even in BRICS and SCO India and China both exist together.
Very well said.
Excellent perspective. Security concern must certainly prevail over all the other consideration in shaping relationship with any other nation or group of nations. Besides, invasion of Indian market by Chinese goods, there was also concern that import of dairy products from New Zeland would have adverse effect on the domestic dairy industry. It is good that India has stayed out of Border & Roat Initiative and RCEP. Keep china away like plague.
Sour grapes , angur khatte hai
Its strange that the former foreign secretary equates economic security with political security, or even considers them on par with each other…..has he never studied history? When the Mughal Empire handed over the security its coastline to other powers, that first resulted in Arab interference in domestic affairs, and later it was the Portuguese and the Dutch, culminating in the Brits with the East India Company…….and we know what happened after that…
Political security is paramount, and any sort of external interest in domestic affairs, better be to our advantage, at ALL times.
Money comes., money goes but when Power comes, it has to be arrested, for it to ‘stay’.
That’s just the way things work.