Mumbai: “Haar ke jitne wale ko baazigar kehte hain (The one who wins even after losing is called an illusionist).” This line from the 1993 Shah Rukh Khan starrer Baazigar comes to mind after the Supreme Court’s Thursday order on the disqualification petitions against 16 MLAs of the Eknath Shinde-led Maharashtra government, including the Chief Minister himself.
What’s more, the line can be applied to both sides involved in the battle—the Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in one camp, and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which consists of the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), and Congress, in the other.
The outcome of this situation largely depends on which side is able to craft a compelling political narrative around their respective victories and defeats arising from the SC order.
In June 2022, Eknath Shinde led a rebellion of a group of MLAs from the undivided Shiv Sena, which was then led by Uddhav Thackeray. As a result, the then Maharashtra governor, Bhagat Singh Koshyari, demanded a floor test for the Thackeray-led MVA government. However, before facing the floor test, Thackeray resigned as CM, leading to the downfall of the MVA government.
Subsequently, the breakaway Shiv Sena faction joined forces with the BJP, and Shinde became the CM. The Thackeray faction filed a disqualification petition in the Supreme Court against 16 MLAs from the Shinde camp, which the Election Commission recognised in February 2023 as the ‘Shiv Sena’ with the bow and arrow symbol.
Thursday’s verdict, though, was a mixed bag, with good news not just for the Shinde camp but also some victories — even if just of the moral variety— for the MVA.
On the plus side for the Shinde camp, the Supreme Court held that it could not restore the MVA government as Thackeray resigned without facing the floor test. The court also clarified that the decision on the disqualification petitions now rests with Speaker Rahul Narvekar, a BJP leader— which means that the Shinde government is stable.
Political analysts ThePrint spoke to said even if Narvekar’s decision is challenged in court, it could be months from now before the matter reaches any fruition.
However, some of the Supreme Court’s observations have also given a boost to the MVA, at least to some extent.
In its verdict, the court raised several questions about the formation of the Shinde government. It said then governor Koshyari, was “not justified” in asking the MVA government to face a floor test and did not have enough evidence to conclude that Uddhav Thackeray had lost the confidence of the House.
It also criticised Speaker Rahul Narvekar’s decision to recognise Bharat Gogavale from the Shinde camp as the chief whip of the Shiv Sena, stating that this was “illegal” and done without proper inquiry into which faction of the party was the legitimate one.
All this has prompted former Uddhav Thackeray to call for the resignations of CM Shinde and deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis on “ethical grounds”.
Speaking to ThePrint, political commentator Prakash Bal said the verdict could be summed up in one line: “The surgery is successful, but the patient is dead”, an allusion to the verdict saving the government, but not going quite so easy on its actors.
However, Bal added that the Supreme Court’s stern observations about the role of the Governor and Speaker in the events preceding the formation of the Shinde-led government may not be significant since there are no elections around the corner and any sympathy wave for Uddhav might end before that.
The Lok Sabha polls are slated for April-May 2024, followed by the state assembly elections in October next year. Although several civic bodies in Maharashtra are awaiting elections, Bal stated that the state government may be in no urgency to hold them soon.
Here’s a look at some possible outcomes of the verdict for Shinde as well as Thackeray.
Verdict strengthens Shinde’s position
Within two hours of the Supreme Court verdict, Shinde and Fadnavis addressed a joint press conference, striking a jubilant note. As journalists were settling down, Fadnavis said, “Sarkar settle jhala (The government has settled).”
“I am welcoming you all to the press conference of a government that the SC has declared fully constitutional,” Fadnavis said, proceeding to argue why the order bolsters the constitutional validity of this government. CM Shinde, meanwhile, hailed the order as the “victory of the truth.”
Political observers say that what the order does do is secure Shinde’s position as CM and as the leader of his Shiv Sena faction, which in turn gives a fillip to his bargaining power with the BJP.
An adverse order would have not just weakened Shinde’s position in the government, but could have also prompted MLAs and other leaders from his Shiv Sena to look for better prospects.
“This is definitely a boost for the Shinde-Fadnavis government, after talks over the past few weeks on for how long this government might last,” political analyst Hemant Desai told ThePrint.
“Leaders from the Uddhav Thackeray camp will now wonder if they will be able to put up a fight. Some may leave to join the Shinde camp or the BJP,” he added.
Uddhav’s bargaining power could take a hit
The challenges confronting Uddhav Thackeray will only increase with the Supreme Court judgment, said Dr Sanjay Patil, a researcher from Mumbai University.
“Uddhav Thackeray has to work on rebuilding an entire party, which could see a few more defections. The legal battle is over, but when preparations for elections begin, it will be an uphill battle to find 40 new MLA candidates and 13 new MP candidates to replace the ones who left with Shinde,” Patil told ThePrint.
Ultimately, he added, these issues could impact Thackeray’s position and bargaining power not just within the MVA, but within Maharashtra politics as a whole.
“Uddhav Thackeray may not retain the status of the undisputed leader of the MVA,” he added.
The Supreme Court’s verdict has also lent more weight to the theory that the MVA government fell solely because Uddhav Thackeray decided to resign instead of facing the floor test ordered by the Governor.
Notably, NCP president Sharad Pawar had noted that Thackeray had “resigned without putting up a fight” in the updated version of his autobiography Lok Maze Sangati, released last week.
The SC in its order had stated: “Status quo ante cannot be restored because Mr Thackeray did not face the floor test and tendered his resignation. And the governor, was therefore, justified in inviting Mr. Shinde to form the government at the behest of the BJP, which was the largest political party in the house.”
A sympathy wave?
While speaking to reporters Thursday, Uddhav Thackeray said his decision to resign may not have been legally sound, but was important from an ethical perspective.
Thackeray’s decision to resign as the head of a party that runs on emotions and sentiments was an important one, said Mumbai University’s Dr. Patil.
“If Thackeray had not stepped down as CM, he wouldn’t have got the sympathy that he has got over the last one year,” he added.
However, Patil and Desai both agree that sympathy can only carry the party so much.
“The sympathy that Uddhav Thackeray and other MVA parties will get out of the court’s observations on how the Shinde government came to power in the first place will be short lived,” Desai said.
Patil also questioned just how much the MVA could practically capitalise on the court’s criticism of Governor Koshyari and Speaker Narvekar, and whip up public sympathy.
“The BJP-Shiv Sena government will be much more aggressive now in consolidating its hold on the state,” Desai added.
(Edited by Asavari Singh)
Also read: In Sharad Pawar resignation drama, a Bal Thackeray shadow from the ’90s