Single seat in Bengal, dip in Kerala tally — why ‘Muslim parties’ didn’t do well this time

While ISF and AIMIM failed in Bengal, AIUDF-Congress alliance couldn't stop the BJP from retaining power in Assam. In Kerala, the IUML's performance has taken a beating.

New Delhi: Muslim voters in the states of West Bengal and Kerala have largely voted against the ‘Muslim political parties’, results of the just-concluded assembly elections show.

While the Indian Secular Front (ISF) and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) performed poorly in Bengal, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) hasn’t lived up to its previous performance in Kerala.

In Assam, the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) won more seats than it did in the previous election. Its alliance with the Congress managed vote transfer in many minority-dominated constituencies, but it seems to have also resulted in counter-polarisation of the Hindu community.

The three states have a significant chunk of Muslim population — 26 per cent, 30 per cent and 34 per cent in Kerala, West Bengal and Assam, respectively.

Muslim voters rally behind Mamata Banerjee’s TMC

The ISF, which fought the West Bengal elections under the banner of the Rashtriya Secular Majlis Party, contested 30 seats, and won just one — Nawshad Siddique, brother of ISF leader Abbas Siddiqui, won from the Bhangar constituency.

Of the remaining 29 seats where the ISF contested, 26 were won by the TMC. The BJP managed to secure victory in only three seats, but in all three its winning margin over TMC was higher than the votes polled by the ISF.

For example, in Ranaghat, one of the three seats that the BJP won, the ISF polled just 2.42 per cent votes, while the TMC got 39.59 per cent. The BJP won by a huge margin, securing 54.39 per cent votes in the constituency.

The AIMIM too had thrown its hat in the ring in Bengal this time, fielding seven candidates. But the TMC won all seven, and the AIMIM’s performance was dismal. The party managed just 0.02 per cent vote share, and in four of the seven seats, it got less than 1 per cent of. the votes, finishing fourth, fifth or sixth everywhere.

This means neither the ISF nor the AIMIM ate into the ‘secular’ votes.

A vast chunk of Muslim voters seemed to have rallied behind the TMC this time around. In the Muslim-majority districts of Murshidabad and Malda, the TMC made massive gains compared to the previous assembly polls.

TMC won 16 of the 20 seats in Murshidabad, and five of the nine seats in Malda district. This is a significant gain compared to the 2016 assembly polls, when the ruling party had won just four seats in Murshidabad and none in Malda.

These districts were seen as traditional Congress strongholds, especially owing to the history of strong party leaders emerging from here — such as late Ghani Khan Choudhury. But the party won just one seat in the state this time.

The BJP’s massive campaigning and investment in the state ahead of the polls is largely seen as a reason why the Muslims consolidated behind the TMC. However, analysts say that is only part of the reason.

“The TMC, around the 2018 panchayat polls, began serious outreach programmes in the Malda and Murshidabad regions. It has worked consistently in these regions for the past couple of years to enable mobilisation of the community. That, combined with the vacuum in Congress leadership, aided the TMC’s growth in these regions. It would be simplistic to reduce Muslim support for TMC as being entirely due to the threat of BJP,” Mohammed Reyaz, political analyst and assistant professor of journalism at Kolkata’s Aliah University, told ThePrint.

Assam: Successful vote-sharing but also counter-polarisation 

In Assam, the Congress-AIUDF alliance suffered a setback as the BJP returned to power.

But though the AIUDF managed to win 16 of the 21 seats it contested — an increase from the 2016 polls when it won 13 — the party’s vote share has gone down from 13 per cent in the previous elections to 9.29 per cent now.

In seats like Sonai and Batadroba, won by the BJP last time, the alliance managed to defeat the incumbent. While the AIUDF candidate won in Sonai, the Congress’ candidate won Batadroba — signalling a consolidation of the two party’s voter bases.

Vote transfer between the two allies was also successful in the minority-populated constituencies. For instance, the AIUDF candidate won in Jania, which was senior Congress leader Abdul Khaleque’s constituency until he decided to contest the Lok Sabha polls.

Despite this, the alliance failed to stop the BJP from returning to power — the purpose behind the coalition. Badruddin Ajmal-led AIUDF has opposed the Congress since it was launched in 2006, but the two joined hands this time around to defeat the BJP. Things, however, didn’t go according to plan.

Analysts say this is because of a high “counter-polarisation” in the Hindu-dominated constituencies. For instance, in at least three constituencies of Upper Assam, the Congress enjoyed considerable stronghold and was in power in the last polls too — Golaghat, Sarupathar and Doomdooma.

The BJP won all three seats this time.

“The fear of a Badurddin Ajmal becoming CM was propagated by the BJP effectively. Then, AIUDF saying that the next government will be formed by ‘daadhi, topi, lungi walas’ also enabled that campaign and led to counter polarisation,” Sushanta Talukdar, a political analyst based out of Guwahati, told ThePrint.

IUML’s deteriorating performance in Kerala

In Kerala, the Congress-led UDF suffered a major setback at the hands of the LDF. The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), which has been a long-time ally of the Congress in Kerala, also performed poorly.

The party won just 15 seats of the 27 it contested — highest it has contested so far — making this the IUML’s worst strike rate yet.

This is a step down for the party, which won 18 seats last time. However, its vote share has increased from 7.4 per cent to 8.27 per cent this time around.

“Pinarayi Vijayan took an uncompromising position against Hindutva in the last five years, but both the Congress and the IUML often remained ambiguous on the issue. Their aggressive position on Sabarimala was an attempt at playing BJP’s B team on the one hand and a repudiation of Kerala’s progressive ethos on the other,” said political analyst Shajahan Madampat.

For instance, the IUML supported the cry of Sabarimala devotees against the entry of women into Lord Ayyappa’s temple.

In its election manifesto, the UDF even promised that if it comes to power, it will bring in a law to protect the Sabarimala tradition. The UDF also allied with the Jamat-e-Islami in the local body polls in 2020, which was something that didn’t work in its favour.

The IUML’s growing proximity with the body is also something that may have backfired in these polls.

“This is proof that the 2021 Kerala result is a verdict in favour of plurality and inclusivity,” Madampat added.

(Edited by Sanghamitra Mazumdar)