Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) pulled out its candidate from the Andheri (East) Assembly bypoll in Mumbai on the last day of withdrawal, a move that its political adversaries and analysts see as an attempt to avert a defeat that would send the wrong message in the run-up to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) polls expected early next year.
The Andheri bypoll would have been the first test of strength between the two factions of the Shiv Sena since the party’s split that led to the fall of the previous Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition government. The Eknath Shinde faction, now known as Balasahebanchi Shiv Sena, is currently in power in an alliance with the BJP. Now, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Sena faction’s candidate Rutuja Latke is expected to win from Andheri uncontested.
The BJP’s decision to withdraw its candidate Murji Patel ostensibly came in response to appeals for it to drop out from across the political spectrum — from Raj Thackeray of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) to Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar to Balasahebanchi Shiv Sena’s Pratap Sarnaik. The reason: it is a Maharashtrian ‘culture and tradition’ to allow a deceased sitting MLA’s family member to contest unopposed.
The 3 November Andheri bypoll was necessitated due to the death of sitting Shiv Sena MLA Ramesh Latke — Rutuja’s husband — in May.
“We are taking the candidature of Murji Patel back. We were in the position of winning the election but to keep up with the culture and tradition of Maharashtra, we are letting this election go unopposed since Rutuja Latke is the widow of Ramesh Latke. Plus, the new MLA would hardly get a year or year-and-a-half before the next assembly elections. Hence the central and state leadership decided to withdraw from the bypoll,” BJP Maharashtra president Chandrashekar Bawankule announced to the media.
Not everyone is buying that this is the real reason. Addressing mediapersons, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) leader Sushma Andhare said the BJP feared defeat but was covering it up with a “mask of sensitivity”.
According to her, if the BJP cared so much about tradition, it would not have fielded candidates earlier in the bypolls to Kolhapur or Pandharpur, each of which were held after the death of the sitting MVA legislator.
“Even in the Andheri bypoll, the BJP would not have spent money during the nomination filing of Patel. The BJP and sensitivity have no connection. They sensed defeat and hence they took a step back,” she said.
Several political analysts believe this theory holds water and that the BJP took a calculated decision after sensing defeat in the poll amid a sympathy wave for Uddhav Thackeray. A BJP defeat could have had a ripple effect in Mumbai just ahead of the high-prestige battle for the city’s civic body, the BMC.
“This was the first major election after the transfer of power and it was going to be in Mumbai, the stronghold of the Shiv Sena. If the BJP candidate was defeated, it would have sent a strong message across the state that this transfer of power is not accepted in Mumbai,” Marathi author and political commentator Prakash Akolkar said.
Also Read: No ‘bow and arrow’, Shiv Sena armed with ‘Brand Thackeray and sympathy’ for 3 November by-poll
‘Politics of convenience, not culture’
In opting out of the Andheri contest, the BJP apparently followed the Maharashtrian ‘tradition’ of showing respect to a deceased sitting legislator by letting their family member contest elections unopposed.
This is a point that several Maharashtra leaders have made. At a Sunday press conference, for instance, Sharad Pawar reminded the BJP that the NCP did not field a candidate after BJP leader Gopinath Munde died in 2014 so that his daughter could get elected.
However, some leaders from the Sena’s Uddhav Thackeray camp are sceptical that culture has anything to do with the BJP’s decision, or even the appeals from other parties that preceded it.
They point to the fact that Latke had to approach the Bombay High Court to get her resignation accepted from the BMC, where she worked as a clerk, so that she could stand for elections. The court directed the BMC to accept her resignation last Thursday and she filed her nomination papers on the last day.
“Till that time, didn’t Raj Thackeray didn’t say a word. Maybe he [later] thought that this sympathy wave would go against him among Marathi voters. And interestingly, Raj Thackeray had put up a candidate against Ramesh Latke in 2014,” senior journalist and political analyst Hemant Desai said.
According to Akolkar, the BJP was paying lip service to Maharashtrian culture but was actually playing “politics of convenience”.
“Where did this culture and tradition go during Kolhapur and Pandharpur? Kolhapur is typical because the MLA’s widow was given a ticket and all BJP state leaders had gone there for campaigning, so this is just a showpiece,” said Akolkar.
In May 2021, Pandharpur –Mangalvedha assembly constituency went to bypolls after the demise of NCP leader Bharat Bhalke. The MVA had fielded his son Bhagirath Bhalke but the BJP’s Samadhan Autade won the election by over 3,700 votes.
However, similar moves did not work out so well for the BJP in two other assembly bypolls.
In the Deglur-Biloli Assembly seat in November last year, BJP candidate Subhash Sabne lost by 40,000 votes to MVA candidate Jitesh Antapurkar, the son of deceased Congressman Raosaheb Antapurkar. It was widely believed that the “sympathy wave” for Jitesh worked against the BJP.
Then, in the Kolhapur assembly bypoll in April, MVA candidate Jayashri Jadhav — the widow of the late Congress MLA Chandrakant Jadhav — defeated BJP’s Satyajeet Kadam by over 18,000 votes.
Impact on BMC polls
After the change in government and vertical split in the Shiv Sena, the contest for Andheri (East) assembly seat would have been the first direct contest between the ruling and opposition alliances ahead of the BMC polls.
Murji Patel’s candidature was announced by Mumbai BJP president Ashish Shelar on 3 October, but the decision to withdraw was announced by BJP state president Chandrashekhar Bawankule in Nagpur.
“When the decision is taken by Devendra Fadnavis and president Bawankule after deliberating with higher ups and Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, I don’t have much to add,” Shelar said Monday. “I want to tell BJP Mumbai workers to save their energies for the impending BMC election in the next two months or whenever they are announced… this energy will be used then.”
He also announced the step to withdraw Patel’s candidature on Twitter and asked party workers to “maintain discipline”.
पक्षाचा आदेश तात्काळ मान्य करून समर्थक कार्यकर्त्यांची समजूत काढून भाजपाचे अंधेरी पूर्वचे उमेदवार मुरजी पटेल यांनी उमेदवारी अर्ज मागे घेतला. पक्ष शिस्त मान्य करणाऱ्या सर्व पदाधिकारी कार्यकर्ते आणि उमेदवारांचे कौतुक!
अंधेरी पूर्वच्या जनतेच्या सेवेचे व्रत यापुढे सुरु ठेवू! pic.twitter.com/bpQpP52A4g
— Adv. Ashish Shelar – ॲड. आशिष शेलार (@ShelarAshish) October 17, 2022
Normally BJP does not lack communication, said Desai.
“If BJP did not want to contest this election, they should have thought about it before. Ashish Shelar personally accompanied the nomination filing and procession of Murji Patel. So, what just happened in the last two-three days? …this is confusion that has come out in open from BJP camp, which doesn’t normally happen,” the political analyst added.
If BJP would have lost this election, it would have impacted the party in the BMC polls to some extent, Akolkar claimed. “Before BMC elections, a message that Mumbai has not accepted the transfer of power by Eknath Shinde was what BJP wanted to avoid.”
This will give a major boost and confidence to Uddhav Thackeray, Desai said. “If the MVA plans a proper strategy and goes for the BMC polls, it could be beneficial as was seen in this bypoll, as well as certain gram panchayat elections. The wave is in favour of Uddhav Thackeray currently,” he added.
For the last 25 years, the Shiv Sena has held sway over the BMC. After the vertical split in the Sena, the BJP senses an opportunity to wrest power. In the 2017 BMC polls, the Shiv Sena had won 84 seats while BJP followed closely at 82.
(Edited by Asavari Singh)
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