Bengaluru: The Janata Dal (Secular) or JD(S) is celebrating its silver jubilee Saturday, marking a significant milestone for a party whose electoral relevance has fluctuated over time but whose political importance only appears to be growing.
Political analysts and observers say that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) victory in Bihar further emphasises the significance of regional parties, providing a much needed boost to the JD(S) as it stands on the threshold of a generational shift.
“The people of Bihar have given a clear message to the country, which has shattered the sleep of the big leaders of the Congress party and already set (off) panic into the ranks of the party in the upcoming 2028 assembly elections. On the floor of the house, they tried to belittle the Janata Dal (Secular), stating that they will be reduced from 17 to single digits. Today, who has come to single digits?” Nikhil Kumaraswamy, the state president of the party’s youth wing, told reporters.
In its invitation to the 25th year celebrations, the JD(S) has made a clarion call to the larger population to strengthen “regionalism, integrity of Karnataka and the welfare of Kannadigas”.
The JD(S) was founded in 1999 led by former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda who split from the erstwhile Janata Party. The party was registered on 24 November 2000.
Since then, JD(S) has never been out of the equation in Karnataka’s complex political landscape, asserting its regional identity while frequently oscillating between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress in its attempt to stay in power.
After its rout in the 2023 assembly elections, the party decided to partner with the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP, securing its existence and prominence.
‘Natural alliance’
In 1999, H.D. Deve Gowda returned to Karnataka after an 11-month stint as Prime Minister. His popularity soared among his core voter base, the Vokkaligas, but the party’s electoral fortunes dwindled.
From 115 seats the Janata Dal won in 1994, Deve Gowda’s newly formed JD(S) was reduced to just 10 seats in 1999 and secured 11.45 percent of the vote share, as compared 34.02 percent of the undivided Janata Dal in 1994.
In the following elections, in 2004, the party recovered somewhat, winning 58 seats—its highest ever tally—and doubling its vote share to 21.10 percent. But soon after it withdrew support to the B.S. Yediyurappa-led BJP in 2007, just seven days after the transfer of power, it was reduced to 28 seats and 19.44 percent of the vote share.
Yediyurappa’s decision to leave the BJP and start his own party (KJP) helped JD(S) win 40 seats (20.45 percent vote share) in 2013. But the Congress was the biggest beneficiary of the BJP’s split, winning 123 of the total 224 seats.
In 2023, its vote share plummeted to 13 percent with just 19 seats, forcing an alliance with the BJP.
Sugata Srinivasaraju, author of ‘Furroughs in a field—The Unexplored Life Of HD Deve Gowda’, says that the 2024 Lok Sabha elections was where the JD(S) really proved its value to the BJP.
“Both Kumaraswamy and Deve Gowda enjoy a great relationship with Modi and Amit Shah. You cannot dispense JD(S) even though they may not win 100 seats on their own or even contest as many. The general elections proved that in 2024. At least eight of the seats the BJP won in 2024 were because of a solid vote transfer from the JD(S),” Srinivasraju told ThePrint.
Despite winning just two of the three seats it contested in Karnataka, Kumaraswamy made it to the Modi cabinet, becoming Union Minister Of Heavy Industries and Steel.
Its dismal performance in the state has little to do with its importance, analysts say, adding that the regional outfit holds the keys to the Old Mysuru region or Vokkaliga belt where the BJP has a negligible presence.
The BJP has formed the government on its own twice but has never managed to win a majority largely due to its lack of support among the Vokkaligas, a dominant land-owning agrarian community which is seen as a strong backer of Gowda and the Kumaraswamy-led JD(S).
Analysts add that the JD(S) was built in opposition to the Hindutva-driven BJP, adding the word ‘secular’, but was more importantly built to counter the Congress.
But the constant threat the JD(S) has faced in its bastions from the Congress and the BJP’s negligible presence makes them a natural alliance of the latter.
“Many things have changed in the last 2.5 years (since 2023) in Karnataka. BJP cannot move forward with certainty with Yediyurappa now retired. The only leadership that survives in Karnataka, like Nitish Kumar (in Bihar), (is) Kumaraswamy,” Srinivasaraju says.
‘Family-owned proprietorship’
Since partnering with the BJP, the JD(S) has taken strong positions against reservations for Muslims within the backward classes list, sporting saffron shawls and aligning their views largely with that of its coalition partner.
But it was under Gowda that reservations for Muslims were implemented in 1994.
However, they have remained cautious on giving the BJP opportunities to expand its footprint in its bastions.
Also read: Chink in NDA’s armour in Karnataka? JD(S) backs out of BJP-led padayatra in state
The equation with the BP
The JD(S) leadership has also maintained direct relationships with Modi and Shah and kept the local unit completely out of its coalition arrangement.
On its part, the Modi-led BJP has focused on ‘dynasty politics’ in the Congress and overlooked family-run JD(S).
Gowda is currently a member of the Rajya Sabha. Gowda’s older son, H.D. Revanna, is the sitting MLA from Holenarsipura. Revanna’s older son, Suraj, is an MLC, younger son (Prajwal) was the former MP from Hassan and wife (Bhavani) is an ex-Zilla Panchayat member.
Kumaraswamy’s wife is a former MLA and son Nikhil has unsuccessfully contested three elections.
Prajwal Revanna has since been convicted of rape, intimidation and other serious crimes and is lodged in Bengaluru’s central jail.
There are ongoing cases and grievous charges against Prajwal’s father, mother and brother as well. The setback to the Revannas has given Kumaraswamy complete control over the party, including the elevation of his son Nikhil as the face of the party in Karnataka as well as the potential president.
Srinivasraju says that Nikhil has remained active despite three defeats, touring the state and mobilising support.
“The JD(S) has lost its character as a political party and become a family-owned proprietorship. There is pressure to make Nikhil the state president, which reaffirms that the party serves the family and not the other way around,” said one former JD(S) legislator, requesting anonymity. The leader has since moved to the Congress.
The JD(S) has defended itself against allegations of practising dynastic politics, instead pointing out that Siddaramaiah’s son is an MLC and D.K. Shivakumar’s brother is a former MP.
But it has bigger problems within its own ranks.
‘Decennial phoenix’
Kumaraswamy has had to juggle between Delhi and Bengaluru, leaving Nikhil in charge of addressing growing concerns within the party and even reviving it. But neither Kumaraswamy, Nikhil or Gowda have been able to contain the growing dissent within its ranks.
Senior leader G.T. Deve Gowda has openly distanced himself from the party, while others like A. Manju, who has successfully contested from all three major political parties, have relied more on their individual capabilities. Several others have also kept their distance, confining themselves to their respective constituencies.
Even the party’s core support base, the Vokkaligas, have explored their options outside the JD(S) fold.
Shivakumar has been trying to project himself as the ‘next Vokkaliga leader’, challenging the dominance of Gowda and Kumaraswamy.
“Dominant communities gravitate towards parties which project one of their own to top positions. Lingayats banded behind Yediyurappa in 2008 and 2018 but looked the other way in 2023. Vokkaligas too have looked beyond the JD(S),” said the leader cited above.
One analyst says that when Gowda wins big, it’s because the Vokkaliga backed him. But when he loses, it’s also because the same community abandons him. But this is not to say that the JD(S) will lose its individual identity and merge with that of the BJP, he says.
“As long as it’s a caste-based identity, how will it go to the BJP? It is a Vokkaliga party. Like how the Muslim women in Bihar voted for Nitish Kumar, Deve Gowda brought in the same card since he brought in reservations. The JD(S) identity is caste-based and not ideological even though they have secular (in their name),” the author added.
He added that any perceived slump of the JD(S) cannot be used to rule them out as the party has a history of reviving themselves every 10 years. He calls them the “decennial phoenix”, rising from every adversity.
“In this decennial, they are on the up currently. You will see that uptick with an alliance,” he added.
(Edited by Viny Mishra)
Also read: DK says Siddaramaiah to be Karnataka CM for 5 yrs. Why Congress high command can’t replace him