Mumbai: The tiger on Shiv Sena’s symbol once roared across Maharashtra. Today, its footprints are fainter. The 15 January municipal corporation elections laid bare a troubling reality for the Shiv Sena faction led by Eknath Shinde—outside the Mumbai Metropolitan Region, the party is ceding ground to its own ally in the state government, the BJP.
Across 29 municipal corporations that went to the polls across Maharashtra this month, the BJP captured 1,400 seats out of 2,869, while Shiv Sena (Shinde) managed 399, placing it at a distant second.
Of those 399 seats, a staggering 250—62 percent—came from just the Thane belt and Mumbai. Beyond this comfort zone, the party that performed credibly in last year’s general and assembly elections, and even in the recent municipal council polls, struggled.
In constituencies where Shinde had mounted strong showings during the Lok Sabha and assembly polls—Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, Nashik, Parbhani, Solapur—the party thinned out dramatically in the municipal polls.
It was a downslide for a faction that won 7 of the 15 Lok Sabha seats it contested in 2024, and 58 of 81 assembly seats the same year, including gains in Konkan-Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg, and Kolhapur alongside its traditional Marathwada strongholds.
The contrast with the undivided Shiv Sena’s performance between 2014 and 2018 is instructive too. Back then, the unified party secured 489 corporation seats out of a total of 2,700 statewide then, finishing second behind the BJP’s 1,099.
In the latest municipal polls this year, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena won 155 seats overall.
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On the ground
Political analyst Jaidev Dole identified a failure in candidate selection and resource allocation for Shinde Sena’s performance in the latest municipal polls.
“Many of the MLAs and MPs had given tickets to their kin, which restricted them from going anywhere else to rally. They concentrated all their efforts into getting their sons or daughters elected. As a result, the resources that needed to be spent elsewhere were not paid much attention,” he said.
The party’s organisational cracks run deeper. Dole said that while the BJP’s voter base remained completely intact and the party deployed all available resources effectively, even weakening opponents in the process, Shinde’s leaders “did not have a concrete agenda at hand, nor great speakers who could turn the vote around”.
Political analyst Sanjay Patil, speaking to ThePrint, attributed the divergence to structural factors. The BJP, as the largest party with broader Hindutva appeal, has been consolidating its vote base while Shiv Sena has remained relevant only in scattered pockets across the state, he said.
“Besides, outside MMR, Shiv Sena doesn’t have an organisational structure. Other than Eknath Shinde, they don’t have a bigger leader,” Patil said, adding that as a national party, BJP’s stronger appeal allows it to eat into both opposition and allies’ votes.
The party’s performance in corporation election differed from its performance just a month earlier in municipal council and nagar panchayat polls, where it won 53 mayoral posts out of the 288 it contested. The Shinde faction performed well in Solapur, Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, Raigad, Nashik, and Konkan districts during those council elections.
Patil explained the divergence: councils represent smaller, more manageable territories where the party’s 50-plus MLAs could concentrate their influence effectively.
“Shiv Sena has over 50 MLAs and for council polls, they were able to put their weight behind the area that is comparatively smaller. They were able to influence and use their political clout, which helped the party in council polls. However, corporations are larger cities and there, BJP has good influence over the urban votes,” he said.
Outside Mumbai, voters had to cast ballots four times for one electoral ward, as part of the rules as wards were divided into smaller divisions. “So, people voted for those who they thought had a better chance of winning in all four and that’s why they must have gravitated towards BJP,” Patil said.
Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar: A cautionary tale
The erosion was perhaps most notable in Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, previously known as Aurangabad. In 2017, the undivided Shiv Sena was the largest party in the 115-seat corporation, with 29 seats, followed by AIMIM at 25 and the BJP at 22.
In 2026, the BJP surged to 57 seats while AIMIM secured 33. Shiv Sena (Shinde) collapsed to just 13 seats, and Sena UBT managed six.
Rajendra Janjal, Shinde Sena’s district head for Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, told ThePrint the party had weakened on the ground and the result was unexpected. Even the BJP had hoped for around 30 seats but won 57, he said.
“We were hoping that alliance will take place with BJP and so, we did not prepare fully. But later when the alliance was not declared, we had to struggle to get candidates last minute and then the core team had to re-strategise everything,” Janjal said.
He blamed the BJP for allegedly misusing MLA funds, but also acknowledged internal problems, particularly infighting amongst leaders who gave tickets only to relatives and campaigned against one another.
“Our party became a party of leaders and not of grassroot-level karyakartas. We had to listen to what MLAs and MPs would tell us and that is why our ground structure has weakened. Shiv Sena, which was cadre based, has not remained cadre based anymore,” Janjal said.
He added, “Had we stuck to being a cadre based party, we could have left BJP. Reorganising our party is crucial going forward. Besides, Sena UBT also ate into our votes and vote division cost us the seats.”
Solapur: Absent leadership, resource disparity
In Solapur’s 102-seat corporation, the BJP won a commanding 87 seats, up from 49 previously. And the Shinde Shiv Sena crashed to just four seats, from 21 that the undivided Sena had won.
A local functionary said Shinde and other top leaders concentrated all their efforts in the Thane and Mumbai regions, leaving the district unattended. The BJP fought separately while Shinde’s Sena and the NCP (Ajit Pawar faction) contested together. A lack of coordination meant that even the allies, Shinde Sena and NCP (AP) ended up fielding candidates against each other in at least 20 seats.
“Neither Shinde nor Ajit Pawar held any rallies or speeches in Solapur,” the Shinde Sena functionary said, adding that Shinde remained stuck in MMR while Ajit Pawar was confined to Pune and surrounding areas.
“Besides, three MLAs here in Solapur are of BJP and so, the funds were very well distributed, which was not the case with our party,” the functionary said.
Rohini Tadwalkar, the BJP’s district head in Solapur, said the party mounted well-coordinated ground efforts, which yielded results.
“We didn’t have any star campaigner but had one big rally of (Chief Minister) Devendra ji Fadnavis. That helped us. Besides, this time we fought separately without any allies so many karyakartas got opportunity, and we could give them justice and they worked with enthusiasm,” Tadwalkar said.
“This is a step towards ‘shat-pratishat (100 percent)’ BJP in the future,” Tadwalkar said, adding that for all developmental work—be it the airport or other projects—Guardian Minister Jaykumar Gore and Fadnavis had released enough funds.
Dole, discussing Marathwada and neighbouring areas, noted that when MLAs and ministers from both the BJP and Shiv Sena are present, the minister who carries greater weight in terms of equations and portfolio commands more funds.
“The fund allocation to such a minister impacts others and it could have a larger impact on the election strategy. This also impacts the popularity of such leaders in the region,” Dole said.
Nashik: Holding ground but slipping
The election result in Nashik, where Shiv Sena (Shinde) fought alongside the NCP (Ajit Pawar faction), also pointed to a downward trend, though it wasn’t as stark as in the other corporations. The BJP increased its tally from 66 to 72 seats in the 122-member corporation, while the Shinde Sena dropped from 35 in 2017 to 26 seats this time.
Sunil Kedar, BJP’s Nashik district head, credited the presence of party MLAs with helping to disburse funds effectively.
“Importantly, our grassroot cadre was intact and strong. We are always amongst the people and presented to them the development work,” Kedar said.
He said that the local unit wanted to contest alone but held talks with Shiv Sena and the NCP (AP) following instructions from the top leadership. “We always wanted to go solo because we had 1,200 interested candidates for 122 seats. And, so, going in the alliance would not have done well for us,” Kedar said.
The road ahead
After the 2022 split in Shiv Sena, Eknath Shinde was elevated to Maharashtra Chief Minister in Mahayuti government 1.0, and began expanding his base beyond the Thane region. His party’s victories in Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, Nashik, Thane, Parbhani, and Buldhana during the Lok Sabha elections, and subsequent gains in the assembly polls from these areas plus Konkan-Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg, and Kolhapur, suggested the faction was building a statewide presence.
The municipal council results reinforced that perception. But the corporation elections have exposed the limits of that expansion.
The results from Thane belt—Thane, Kalyan-Dombivli, Navi Mumbai, and Ulhasnagar—and Mumbai are attributed to Shinde’s personal equations, administrative work, and strong local network. But the party needs more to expand its network and influence, especially when it’s up against a powerful BJP that shows no inclination to cede ground to its junior ally.
(Edited by Prerna Madan)
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