Baramulla poll result will reveal just how much alliance with BJP cost Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP

PDP had won the Baramulla seat, which encompasses north Kashmir, for the first time in 2014. This time, Mehbooba Mufti’s party isn’t even sure of third place.

A polling station in Hajin, Baramulla constituency | Azaan Javaid | ThePrint

Kupwara/Baramulla: In 2014, the Peoples Democratic Party did what it hadn’t managed since its foundation in 1999 — defeat rival National Conference in the Baramulla constituency that encompasses north Kashmir.

The PDP had won a handful of assembly seats in the north before, but the region had continued to be dominated by the National Conference and the Congress — that is, until Muzaffar Hussain Baig managed to defeat Sharief-Ud-Din Shariq of the NC by 29,219 votes, and also restrict separatist-turned-mainstream politician Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference.

Five years and a failed alliance with the BJP later, the PDP is not only fighting for survival in what was considered its home turf in south Kashmir, but also seems to be the also-ran in a three-way fight in Baramulla, which voted in the first phase of the Lok Sabha polls Thursday.

Article 35A foremost on voters’ minds

There are several issues the voters mentioned that need urgent attention — roads, electricity and unemployment being just a few. But these concerns were nothing compared to the people’s worry about the abrogation of Article 35A, which is often raked up by the BJP.

An overwhelming number of people expressed their concerns about the BJP’s “motives”, but the biggest casualty of this concern is likely to be the PDP, whose three-year alliance with the BJP is far from being forgotten.

The parties had sought votes against each other in the 2014 J&K assembly elections, but when the polls threw up a hung House, they came together in what was termed a very unlikely alliance. But issues surfaced right from the word go, when PDP chief and CM Mufti Mohammad Sayeed thanked Pakistan for a peaceful election in Kashmir — some time later, PM Narendra Modi answered at Srinagar’s Sher-e-Kashmir stadium that he didn’t need any advice from anyone on Kashmir.

After the death of Sayeed, the journey for his daughter and successor Mehbooba Mufti has only gotten harder. Mehbooba, who was MP from south Kashmir’s Anantnag seat before taking over as CM, saw things deteriorate in her old constituency after the killing of Hizbul Mujahideen militant commander Burhan Wani. The six-month unrest that followed saw over 100 civilians killed, and most of the blame fell on Mehbooba. The BJP, meanwhile, continued its strong-arm approach towards Kashmir, and a heightened counter-insurgency mechanism added to her woes.

The final blow came last summer when the BJP-PDP alliance fell. An internal rebellion began in the PDP, which Mehbooba accused the BJP of orchestrating. Important leaders of the PDP either started giving statements against Mehbooba or left the party altogether to join Lone.

To protect what remained, Mehbooba and NC vice-president Omar Abdullah decided to stitch together an alliance that would help them both. The alliance would halt Lone and the BJP’s march, and also give the NC an issue to mobilise for the elections, something that had been missing since the killing of Wani.

However, amid talk of the alliance staking claim to form the government, Lone claimed support of rebel PDP MLAs and BJP legislators in forming the next government. The assembly was dissolved, and since then, Mehbooba has amplified her anti-BJP and anti-Delhi rhetoric to an extent where other leaders of the Valley have been forced to take similar stances.

A bad situation for Mehbooba

For the PDP, the campaign has not only been about its stand on contentious issues, but also about justifying its alliance with the BJP. In the north, there are nine candidates in the fray for the parliamentary seat, of which three are believed to be front-runners. Unsurprisingly, the PDP is not part of that trio.

National Conference’s Mohammad Akbar Lone, who has served as the state education minister, is seen to represent his party’s call for J&K’s autonomy. Independent candidate Engineer Rashid advocates J&K’s right to self-determination. A large number of voters in areas like Kupwara, Handwara, Langate and Naidkhai have shown a clear tilt towards these two candidates.

A polling station in north Kashmir’s Kupwara | Azaan Javaid | ThePrint

 

The encounter site in Handwara Babagund were a dozen houses were destroyed or damaged in February. Only two votes were cast here | Azaan Javaid | ThePrint

The third ‘front-runner’ is Raja Aijaz Ali of the People’s Conference, a former policeman who has solid support among the Pahari and Shia communities of the north. To add to the PDP’s woes, Imran Ansari, a prominent former party leader, joined the PC last year and has thrown his weight behind Ali.

The PDP has managed to distance itself from its recent past, owing to Mehbooba’s anti-Delhi statements, but a loss in Baramulla would dent its prospects. It may not have a direct bearing of Mehbooba’s chances of winning Anantnag, but could signal bad news for her in the state assembly elections expected to be held in a few months.