Donald Trump had declared during several of his campaign meetings that he would “stop the wars,” a promise that resonated strongly with those who cheered his “Make America Great Again”—MAGA—theme and sincerely believed that America had no business fighting wars in far-off lands. In his address to supporters, immediately after the 2024 election results indicated his second term as President, Trump recalled his first term, claiming, “We had no wars. For four years, we had no wars. Except we defeated ISIS.” He added, “They said, ‘He will start a war.’ I’m not going to start a war, I’m going to stop the wars.”
Emerging victorious after a hotly contested and highly acrimonious election, and finishing with a larger vote share than last time, Donald Trump will begin his second term in the White House with a Republican majority in both the House and Senate, and possibly a conservative majority in the Supreme Court to take care of his domestic challenges. However, on the foreign policy front, his hands are seemingly full.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict and Israel’s ongoing war with terror groups like Hezbollah and Hamas are posing serious challenges to peace and stability in their respective regions. These two military engagements, along with many other global flashpoints, have drawn many countries into the vortex of the conflict, negatively impacting their economies. The less said about the uncertainty of the European economies, the better. They are facing an energy crisis and trade and connectivity issues arising out of the turmoil in the Middle East.
In this context, what Donald Trump’s statements or promises would only make sense if we had some idea of how he plans to redeem his campaign promises.
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Middle East—uphill task for Trump
The Palestinian issue has been hanging fire since the state of Israel was founded and the two-state solution was proposed as a path to peaceful coexistence. The gradual erosion of the political authority of the Fatah-controlled Palestinian Authority in the West Bank—set up as part of the Oslo Accords in 1994—has strengthened Hamas, which mounted a drastic terror attack on Israeli civilian areas, provoking terrible retribution from Tel Aviv.
Donald Trump’s election as the 47th President was described by Hamas as a “private matter for the Americans,” with hopes for the immediate cessation of “aggression by the fascist government of the Zionist entity.” With these adjectives, it is doubtful that the current Israeli leadership would lend an ear to peace talks or negotiations proposed by Trump once he officially occupies the White House. Hamas is seeking Trump’s assistance in achieving the “legitimate rights of freedom, independence, and the establishment of their independent self-sovereign state with Jerusalem as its capital.”
Incidentally, both Hamas and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas had frequently condemned Trump’s Middle East policies during his first term, including his decision to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in 2018 and his 2020 “Deal of the Century” plan to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict. Ironically, although both parties to the conflict and the broader Arab world rejected this plan, Trump succeeded in brokering the Abraham Accords, which led to diplomatic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. Bringing these divergent stakeholders in the Middle East, including Iran and other actors in West Asia, to the negotiating table in a way that benefits the US but pleases no one will be an uphill task for the chief of Capitol Hill.
The Middle East muddle is even murkier for Trump, since he pulled out from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or the “Iran nuclear deal” in 2018, and urged his friend Benjamin Netanyahu to “finish the job” in Gaza. Iran, an adversary of the US since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, is hoping Trump will “review previous wrong policies.” During his first term, Trump witnessed mounting tensions between Washington and Tehran, particularly following the 2020 killing of Major General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, in Iraq.
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Donald Trump gave ‘free hand to Russia’
If the Middle East conflict is difficult to stop, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is even more complicated to find an easy solution, especially when Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom Trump called “genius” and “savvy”, is pursuing his objective of expanding his “Eurasian Empire”. Ukraine probably is the first stop for Putin, with Trump having previously given Russia a free hand to do “whatever the hell they want” to any NATO member country. Trump stunned NATO members by saying that, if re-elected, he would not abide by the collective defense clause unless they pay for the protection they seek from the US.
Donald Trump’s idea of stopping the wars involves the US withdrawing from its global leadership role and relying on the power of the dollar to sail through financial turbulence in the present global order. At a time when hegemonic forces are challenging the supremacy of the US and the strength of the dollar, Trump’s idea of ending wars by withdrawing support for friends and allies may send jitters among them.
As a friend of Washington, New Delhi should push the reset button and rework its policies and priorities within the parameters of strategic autonomy. It is worth remembering what one of America’s renowned diplomats said. Henry Kissinger once quipped, “It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.”
The author is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. He tweets @seshadrichari. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)
Since this dedollarization narrative started some 4-5 years ago, i only see the dollar gaining more and more strength. Some people seem to be in perpetual hallucination. Just because you wish something it does not become real.