Trump is more about drama than change. His power ends where states push back

Trump understands the shock value of his actions and uses it to great effect. He enacted orders focusing on low hanging fruits like immigration, but not China or the Russia-Ukraine war.

US President Donald Trump speaks during the inaugural parade inside Capital One Arena on the inauguration day of his second presidential term, in Washington, US, on 20 January, 2025. | Carlos Barria | Reuters

The world has watched intently as the show stopper of geopolitics, Donald Trump, is crowned. Passionate discussions on his unconventional and populist approach have rendered observers and stakeholders entertained as well as alarmed. While much has been said about his politically incorrect and unabashed populism, there remain subtler aspects that warrant exploration—and these are the focus of this article.

Trump has been steadily building a political cult around himself, sharply contrasting with the perceived indecisiveness and lacklustre posturing, even if not real, of the previous administration. He understands the shock value of his actions and uses it to great effect. Upon assuming office, he swiftly enacted executive orders, focusing on low-hanging fruits—borders, immigration, and tariffs on Canada and Mexico, but not China or the Russia-Ukraine war.

A visibly excited Elon Musk stirred controversy by posing a ‘Nazi salute’ and the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, raised eyebrows by referring to India as an “ally” while talking to the media after a Quad foreign ministers meeting, somewhat tone deaf to India’s preference for strategic autonomy. 

Meanwhile, the show stopper himself had mistakenly referred to Spain as a BRICS nation a few hours earlier, giving away a certain nonchalance about rhetorical errata seen repeatedly in his claims—Panama and Greenland included. 

These instances indicate that while Trump and his team often speak without thorough consideration, their actions will deserve more scrutiny over their words.

Regards India, limits to New Delhi’s strategically autonomous aspirations seem to be emerging. A quick nod has been given to buying more oil from the US to compensate for the trade surplus that India currently enjoys with its largest trading partner. India has also been nimble with agreeing to take back the detained immigrants, showing a preference to minimise differences instead of raking them up for domestic appeasement. 

And why not? Data shows that India earns much more from remittances than from foreign direct investment (FDI). In the year 2023-2024, India received 125 billion USD in remittances compared to a modest 70.9 billion in FDI. India has not been the beneficiary of the China+1 diversification as investments not going to China are landing in countries like Vietnam and Singapore. Since topmost remittances come from the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the UK,  it makes a lot of strategic sense to support legal immigration and fall in line with Trump’s push on it.

Rhetoric vs reality

The practicality of several of Trump’s actions, however, raises questions. Many of his executive orders, such as the one targeting birthright citizenship, seem designed more for dramatic effect than substantive change. Trump undoubtedly knew such measures would face legal challenges in democratic states, which is precisely what has happened. The US Constitution requires constitutional amendments to be approved by individual states, ensuring checks and balances in governance. This episode serves as a reminder of American federalism, where the President’s powers are limited by the Congress, the Senate, state governments, and the judiciary.

Contrary to popular belief, the US President is not the most powerful democratically elected leader. By contrast, the French President wields far greater unilateral authority over security, defence, and foreign policy as demonstrated by Emmanuel Macron, who continues to reside in the Elysee Palace, the official residence of the French president, despite his party losing elections and popular support over and over again. It is the French Constitution that bestows Macron with his survival as president, where checks and balances work differently than in the US.
However, comparative federalism is not the only nepenthe to a world jaded by Trumpian anticipation. There is more.

What about strategic prudence?

Donald Trump’s political acumen lies not just in creating shock and awe but in testing boundaries without breaking them entirely. He is exceptionally skilled at compelling adversaries to yield to his demands, but this doesn’t imply abandoning America’s allies in toto. Historically, America’s strength has been evident in its ability to prevent and resolve major wars. At the same time, its tendency to misinterpret global dynamics and overextend itself in prolonged conflicts post-1991 has been a significant undoing

From its decisive role in World War II to its strategic influence during the Cold War, the US has consistently shaped global stability. Current challenges, such as the Ukraine war and managing power dynamics in the Taiwan Strait, further highlight its indispensable role. Although American missteps have dented its global reputation, the US remains a crucial moderator of global stability. A US-led Eurasia and Indo-Pacific, rather than one dominated by China, aligns better with India’s strategic interests, despite the region’s reliance on multi-alignment and hedging strategies. Revisionist powers like Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea threaten the balance of power in Eurasia. In response, America’s offshore influence curbs these nations’ ambitions, preserving an order that benefits India and allows it to continue practicing multi-alignment with Russia and Iran—further stabilising the balance of power.

Critics argue that an unpredictable US may push allies toward aggressive hedging. This risk underscores the need for Trump to balance rhetoric with reality, which will be a test of his strategic prudence 

One of Trump’s anticipated moves, such as withdrawing from the WHO over its alleged Covid-era mismanagement and Chinese influence, reflects his prioritisation of American interests. However, alliances like NATO, essential for maintaining US strategic leverage, are unlikely to be abandoned. With no sovereign territories in Western Europe or East Asia, the US relies heavily on alliances for its strategic foothold. Trump understands this necessity, even as he publicly criticises these partnerships. His seemingly contradictory positions—calling on Europeans to handle their own defense while asserting American influence in Greenland—highlight the nuanced approach required to protect US interests, particularly its forward defensive posture across oceans.

Naval historian Alfred Thayer Mahan’s principle, which asserts that America’s defense begins beyond its borders, remains central to US foreign policy. Despite his “America First” rhetoric, Trump is unlikely to let revisionist powers challenge America’s defensive frontiers. As American political scientist Hal Brands notes, even if the US tries to withdraw from Eurasian conflicts, the nature of these disputes will inevitably draw it back due to their global implications.

Trump pill 

Trump deserves credit for pressuring European nations to take greater responsibility for their security. The threat of the US withdrawing from NATO finally spurred European countries to start increasing their defense commitments, a feat that a more diplomatic and visibly more pro- transatlantic Biden administration struggled to achieve. Finnish President Alexander Stubb aptly described Europe’s previous attitude as a “holiday from history”, which Trump has disrupted. However, Trump’s success in this area does not diminish the importance of nuanced diplomacy, which will remain essential for sustaining long-term alliances.

On Ukraine, Trump’s statements during his campaign suggested a swift resolution to the conflict or a reduction in aid to Kyiv. However, his actions and appointments tell a different story. His selection of key officials like Marco Rubio, Mike Waltz, and Keith Kellogg signals a commitment to supporting Ukraine in a way to achieve a sustainable end to the war and not merely a ceasefire.

Activating the lend-lease agreement with Kyiv, signed by the Biden administration but never implemented, appears to be on Trump’s agenda more strongly as days go by. Trump’s deal-making alpha male persona would not allow Russia to walk away with both territorial gains and Ukrainian neutrality. Instead, he aims for a lasting resolution to the war in Eastern Europe.

Now, whether he has a clear plan remains doubtful and will be seen as his presidency unravels.

Similarly, his mixed signals for China, tariffs and containment on the one hand and invitation to his inauguration on the other, also tell the same story—wait and watch. 

Strategic caution

While Donald Trump’s words cater to a loyal base of supporters, they do not reflect broader Republican sentiments. Not everybody that is falling over backwards to please him and seems loyal to the Trumpian order is a MAGA fanboy. Many Republicans find the MAGA’s blinkered positions overbearing. Additionally, the 2024 presidential elections revealed that Democrats were not as severely defeated as media narratives suggested. Vice President Kamala Harris lost the popular vote by just 1.5 percentage points—the smallest margin since 2000 and the second-smallest since 1968. This indicates that a modest swing in voter sentiment could easily return Democrats to power in future elections.

Republicans will also need to deliver in maintaining their influence, especially as gubernatorial elections approach in 2027.

The many layers of how Donald Trump operates his presidency, most likely his last, must make the global community reflect on the ever-changing landscape of global politics with a grim precipitate—the more things change, the more they remain the same. America is playing the same game of furthering its brute interest as other states are—ta ra rum pum Trump.

Swasti Rao is Consulting Editor, ThePrint and a foreign policy expert. She tweets @swasrao. Views are personal.

(Edited by Aamaan Alam Khan)