The Generation Z-led protests in Nepal have caught the global attention, and international agencies as well as countries have come forward to condole the loss of around 30 lives and hundreds who were injured. While the United Nations noted, “We are shocked by the killings and injury of protesters in Nepal today and urge a prompt and transparent investigation.” How did Nepal’s closest neighbours, India and China, respond?
A day after the protests began in Nepal on 8 September, India stated the next day that it was “closely monitoring the developments in Nepal…(and) our thoughts and prayers are with the families and deceased. India also added that “as a close friend and neighbour, we hope that all concerned will exercise restraint.”
The same evening, Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted, “The violence in Nepal is heart-rending. I am anguished that many young people have lost their lives. The stability, peace and prosperity of Nepal are of utmost importance to us. I humbly appeal to all my brothers and sisters in Nepal to support peace.”
There was a divided crowd on social media about India’s approach, whether it was helpful and friendly or interventionist, but this came as no surprise, as the so-called border blockade of 2015 had already set the social media toolkit on India with hashtags like #BackoffIndia #GoBackIndia.
It would not be an exaggeration to say that small-state syndrome became an intense public mood in Nepal as it approached relations with India, especially after Nepal promulgated the constitution in 2015.
In a carefully worded statement, India added that it had ‘noted’ the new constitution and avoided using words like “welcome” to acknowledge the promulgation.
In the same statement, India had urged that “issues on which there are differences should be resolved through dialogue in an atmosphere free from violence and intimidation and institutionalised in a manner that would enable broad-based ownership and acceptance” as it was deemed as external interference. However, these hashtags often resurface.
While India quickly reacted to current developments, some in Nepal eagerly awaited a statement from China—its northern neighbour.
Dragon’s subtle response
Interestingly, China’s response to Gen Z to the current political developments appeared cautious and calculated, reflecting its broader regional strategic interests. After 2008, Beijing has carefully treaded with the Communist leadership in Nepal to deepen its diplomatic ties and goodwill in Nepal. The move has been viewed as a key element for strategic influence over the region. Leaders like KP Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal alias Prachanda did not hesitate to use the China card to stoke the nationalistic sentiments in Nepal.
Finally, on 10 September, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson issued a statement saying, “China and #Nepal are each other’s traditional friends and neighbours. Hope the various sectors in Nepal will approach the domestic issues properly and restore order and stability in the country soon.”
This was a typical Chinese statement—deliberately vague, refraining from specifying the events or parties involved, and notably omitting any reference to the human cost of the unrest. The carefully crafted words reflect China’s preference for cautious diplomacy and projects that they do not comment on any country’s internal matters.
A hashtag before Nepal in the statement meant it reached the right people—the Generation Z. But has China always avoided interference or been this neutral? No!
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Beijing’s strategic interest
Let’s go back to 2020, when Oli and Prachanda led a coalition government. Both were fighting an internal battle over who would lead the government. The lack of consensus was widely publicised, and both leaders minced no words in targeting each other. Since Oli and Prachanda were key ideological partners for China, Beijing quickly sent a high-level delegation to Nepal to facilitate peace talks between the two.
Although Oli and Prachanda did not reconcile, sending senior leaders like Guo Yezhou, a vice-minister in the international department of the Communist Party of China, was a significant signal of how crucial it was for them to keep the Left unity intact in Nepal. Did that not count as interference in the internal matters of a country?
While China maintains that its actions are driven by a desire to promote stability and friendship, such high-level involvement clearly goes beyond mere diplomatic courtesy and reflects an active effort to shape political outcomes in its strategic interest.
Meanwhile, in the current scenario, China would not want to make any hasty moves as the parties involved in the current political developments do not offer a clear picture of the near future and are not stable forces—something that China does not prefer. Interestingly, India too has the same challenge. Meanwhile, Beijing might find it easy to quickly engage with Gen Z and their representatives in the forthcoming interim structure in Nepal for three key reasons.
First, Gen Z does not carry the burden of history, including “Special Ties” or “Roti-Beti” connection with India; instead, they would want to look at the two neighbours objectively. Their memory of India begins with the alleged border blockade of 2015 and the boundary issue of 2020.
Second, the perks that China offers in educational opportunities and scholarships will be interesting propositions. Universities across China, especially those located in Yunnan Province and Sichuan Province, have seen an increasing number of students in recent years.
Third, China’s massive infrastructure investments under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), including projects like the cross-border railway and road networks, are seen by many young Nepalis as tangible signs of development and economic opportunity, further enhancing China’s appeal over India.
Therefore, interesting times ahead for India-Nepal and India-China relations.
Rishi Gupta is a commentator on Global Affairs. Views are personal.
(Edited by Saptak Datta)