Uttar Pradesh made the BJP’s fortunes in 2014. In 2024, UP voters, particularly those from the Dalit community, gave a brutal blow to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP.
Mandal-supporting voters and strategic voting by Muslims have trounced Kamandal politics in UP. Hindutva politics has taken a beating in the land of Ram.
The story of the 2024 Lok Sabha election will be an unforgettable chapter in Indian democracy where people spoke loud and clear. There was a method in people’s voting pattern in this game-changing election.
In UP, the BJP hasn’t been completely wiped out, but the blow given to the party is forceful enough to send the message that villages are quite disturbed with the state of affairs.
Amid daily struggles, Dalits sensed a fear that the BJP would tweak the Samvidhan (Constitution) if it returned to power with an overwhelming majority. The BJP’s campaign call of “400 paar” —‘winning more than 400 seats’—was nothing but hubris.
It has rebounded on the BJP with a thud.
Going by the trends, the BJP is losing more than 34 seats due to the insecurity in the minds of Dalits.
In 2015, the BJP lost the Bihar assembly election because it erroneously believed that Kurmis will never vote along with Yadavs but they did because their Bihari “asmita” (pride) had been provoked. The BJP lost badly when the RJD and JD(U) entered into an alliance.
Similarly, in UP, Jatavs among Dalits don’t traditionally vote along with Muslim-Yadav voter-base of the Samajwadi party, but due to the SP’s alliance with Congress, the BSP’s Jatav votes got transferred to the SP-Congress candidates. This is a social engineering that the BJP underestimated due to its overconfidence.
Yogi Adityanath’s Lucknow politics dismantled the social engineering that had worked wonders for the BJP in 2014 and 2019. Even upper-castes were not united under his regime.
The biggest story today for the BJP and for all political parties is that India is still a poor country.
Dalits, poorest among the poor, are banking on the “reservation” system as their only lifeline to move forward in life; even Modi’s “guarantee” won’t count if the “reservation” is tweaked with.
The challenges for BJP
Just before the election campaign started, some BJP members boasted about “give us 400 paar to help us change Samvidhan”. When similar remarks percolated down in villages, Dalits became alert, sensing a threat to the reservation system. They felt unsafe under the BJP.
After the first two phases, sensing correctly that this perception will cost them heavily, PM Modi and Amit Shah began speaking in rallies and interviews how the BJP strongly believes in reservation and will protect it at any cost.
But, it is visible from the results now that their “guarantee” wasn’t accepted by Dalits. Certainly not in UP, Rajasthan, and Maharashtra.
In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee proved that she has cracked the code to deal with Modi and the BJP. Once again, she trounced the BJP so convincingly that in the coming assembly election in 2026, she will have an edge to start with.
Notwithstanding all Western propaganda against the status of Indian democracy, Dalits, Muslims, and poor OBC voted fearlessly.
In UP, it was the people’s voice against the Modi government that was expressed through lakhs of ballot boxes.
The resurrection of the opposition parties, particularly Samajwadi party and Congress in UP, is spectacular.
Rahul Gandhi was fighting a battle of survival in this election, and he has not only survived but also increased his grip on the Congress for a long time. He will now have unprecedented dominance over the party after facing a rough patch over the last ten years.
“Jiski jitni sankhya bhari, uski utni hissedari” slogan has been revived by Rahul Gandhi. The BJP never spoke of breaching the 50 percent cap on reservation while Rahul Gandhi stuck to it, which gave him an advantage.
The 2024 results are taking Indian politics back to the pre-2014 era where no party enjoyed absolute authority and even when one did, it didn’t work.
Uttar Pradesh election results show that the three-decade old battle of BJP to decimate caste-based regional parties in the state has completely failed.
Muslim voters have got back political heft in UP.
However, Modi’s cult has saved the BJP from a rout.
Tough task ahead
Despite Muslims, Dalits, and the farmers having serious grouses against the Modi government, and the Agnipath scheme creating dissatisfaction in many states, and the RSS-BJP cadres not being as active as before, the BJP getting 243 seats is not a mean feat.
Manmohan Singh ran two UPA governments with Congress getting 145 seats in 2004 and 206 seats in 2009.
So, for the BJP to run an NDA government with 243 seats of its own may not be difficult. Surely, their ego has been slighted but the BJP still has emerged as the biggest party in this keenly fought election.
Also, Modi has created his own constituency, which has voted him in many other states. The BJP’s vote share in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, and Telangana shows that Modi does have few political options to move ahead from this setback.
However, this election will have a dramatic impact on regional parties and that would eventually hit the BJP.
In Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, 50 percent cap in reservation was breached, helping the regional parties. The BJP may have to join the trend.
If the BJP wants to compete with the Congress and other regional parties, it will have to act on it.
This is the message the BJP and Modi will not miss from the results of this election.
Caste-based politics will come to occupy the centre stage.
Even though Modi’s guarantees have not worked in UP, Maharashtra, and West Bengal, the irony is that a weakened BJP will need Modi more than before to get out of this unprecedented crisis.
Strengthening of the SP, Congress, JD(U), and TDP will bring balance in Parliament. The message from the ballot box is clear: People seek a strong opposition so that the BJP doesn’t have absolute power. This 2024 vote was to strengthen the opposition.
The jolt to the BJP’s politics is so severe that if and when the NDA government is formed, Modi will have to reset his image before he could resurrect the BJP.
Sheela Bhatt is a Delhi-based senior journalist. She tweets @sheela2010. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)
Moving outside the elegant mansions and leafy avenues of LBZ, there is a lot of poverty in Delhi itself. Diplomats fussing over the gold and silver utensils at G 20 banquets may not have noticed this, but how could this be an epiphany for grounded politicians. Just this morning, read a column by a mandarin which talks of India becoming a $ 30 trillion economy by 2047.