Tamil Nadu is in focus—both nationally and within the state. At the national level, Chandrapuram Ponnuswami Radhakrishnan was elected as Vice President of India. And the April 2026 assembly polls are drawing near.
With just months to go, there is no obvious, strong sweeping wave building up—either for the opposition or for the ruling party. That just complicates the situation for the assembly polls and frightens the existing political parties, their formulations, and the never-ending acronym brigades.
And that makes the timing of actor Vijay Joseph’s entry particularly important. The traditional political alliances are beginning to appear fatigued. And Vijay can offer the promise of new politics.
Opposition parties like All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and other smaller parties in the state are yet to form a formidable alliance. They are too busy warring with each other and their leaders are engaging in daily ego clashes. By aligning with the AIADMK, the BJP has definitely carved a place for itself, but it needs to build a stronger front. The ruling party DMK is also facing internal squabbles after the elevation of Udhyanidhi, the son of Chief Minister MK Stalin. The public and the media are afire over a host of contentious issues: price rise, real estate registration levies and power tariff and bus fare hikes, drug menace, liquour scam, sand mafia domination, and kidney transplant scam in rural areas.
Chief Minister MK Stalin also went on a tour to attract FDI in his last year – a clear sign that all the propaganda around investments were thin. Edappadi Palaniswami, Leader of Opposition, in a long statement, demanded a white paper on investments.
Economic, fiscal, industrial, and agricultural factors are too important. According to a recent tweet by EPS, the state has no cash reserve, and it depends on external borrowings and overdrafts from banks. Foreign direct investments are allegedly minimal due to cuts and commissions at the highest policy-making levels. Past public utterances of Opposition Leaders are noteworthy.
There is an overall sense of ennui with the cynical, established and entrenched parties and politicking in the state.
Rahul Gandhi factor
What is clear is this. There is a definite, palpable churn in Tamil Nadu politics, even without a wave. A new player, Vijay, has emerged as the leader of Tamil Vetri Kazhagam, even as Tamil people have witnessed the rise and fall of K Annamalai of BJP and the rise of the Social Democratic Party of India in recent times.
Coupled with all this are the vertical splits that are also underway.
There is a vertical split between father and son staring at us in the Pattali Makkal Katchi party. And the domination of Tamil nationalist parties such as the Desiya Murpokku Munnetra Kazhagam of Vijaykant and Senthamizhan Seeman-led Naam Thamizhar Katchi, TTV Dhinakaran’s Amma Munnetra Kazhagam, is waning. What’s more, all these outfits are yet to align with any major political formation.
The parties are riven with factionalism and feuds, party hoppings and expulsions. All these provide rich fodder daily to primetime Tamil TV news channels.
And there is the Rahul Gandhi factor. The Congress has a sizeable vote bank. But Rahul Gandhi hasn’t worked on either improving his brand equity or drawing youth voters in Tamil Nadu. Instead, he has chosen to totally depend on the party ally DMK. Congress will find it difficult to retain its current vote share.
Despite having tall leaders like P Chidambaram, the DMK has cleverly kept the Congress under its control.
Peaking factionalism
Early in 2026 Tamil Nadu, six lakh voters will elect 234 assembly members. There are 12 popular political state parties in the contest. As new political parties are born, the stranglehold of Dravidian ideology is likely to be put to the test. It is, however, true that caste continues to play a significant role in voting behaviour and women are still drawn to the two main Dravidian parties. And the DMK has a hold on the votes of minorities. But Vijay is hoping to attract the sizeable and politically vocal Christian voters in the state.
And it is also undeniable that Tamil Nadu is changing too. It is not immune to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s three-time national win, the wave of nationalism, and soft Hindutva. The BJP has made Tamil Nadu somewhat of a priority too. Modi has made frequent visits, Home Minister Amit Shah, and JP Nadda have raised emotive issues like Katchatheevu. Modi has embraced rich Tamil symbols such as the Sengol of the Chola dynasty.
But everything isn’t right in the Opposition camp. Just months after Amit Shah sealed an alliance with the AIADMK, internal problems have surfaced. Revolt and factionalism in AIADMK is peaking. The question is whether all the fragments of the original party will unite again. Will EPS play hardball? He has, after all, secured his position as the general secretary of the party and its two-leaf poll symbol after a hard-fought legal battle.
Former Tamil Nadu CM, O Panneerselvam, who leads the newbie party AIADMK Cadre Rights Retrieval Committee, has quit the NDA.
Also read: Vijay is winning nickname war in Tamil Nadu. He’s attacking Brand Stalin with ‘uncle’ taunt
Height of authoritarianism
A new feature in recent days, adding colour to campaigns, is the sudden appearance of cutouts of Durga Stalin, the CM’s wife. Why is she being introduced just before the polls? Her temple visits are not exactly in line with the DMK’s stated policy.
Governor RN Ravi is hosting the Kolu festival at Raj Bhavan, Chennai, highlighting Tamil Nadu’s cultural traditions.
In a social media post, the Governor announced:
“Raj Bhavan cordially invites all to celebrate Navaratri Kolu 2025 at Raj Bhavan, Chennai, from 22 September to 1 October. We warmly welcome your participation in this festive occasion.”
This new adoption of Kolu at Raj Bhavan has sparked a Hindutva-push narrative. Dravidian atheists find it difficult to protest—after all, Durga Stalin also holds a private Kolu in her prayer room. The question now: will Raj Bhavan’s Kolu influence Durga Stalin to throw open her own celebration to the public, thereby neutralising her son Udhayanidhi’s anti-Sanatan stance?
A dissident leader of AIADMK, KA Sengottaiyan, a staunch follower of MGR-Jayalalithaa, made headlines after he threw an open challenge to EPS to bring back all expelled leaders in 10 days. EPS wasted no time in relieving Sengottaiyan from all official positions. This action, of course, jolted ardent MGR-Jayalalithaa disciples. Many stalwarts supported Sengottaiyan—including OPS, AMMK general secretary TTV Dhinakaran, and others. VK Sasikala, aide of late CM J Jayalalithaa, condemned EPS for sacking the former minister from party posts. Dhinakaran even warned that failure to unite all party leaders would spell doom for AIADMK in 2026.
OPS described Sengottaiyan’s sacking as “height of authoritarianism”.
“He (Sengottaiyan) is one of the senior-most party functionaries. His intention is only to unite the party and because he raised his voice for unity, he has been handed out such a harsh punishment,” he said.
Whichever way you look at it, the future of Tamil Nadu politics is hard to predict and is suffering a grievous fracture.
Unless voters elect a stable government, there will be no progress. Being a border state close to Sri Lanka and Maldives, Tamil Nadu should not get a coalition government. That will be a threat to India’s security.
The author tweets @RAJAGOPALAN1951. Views are personal.
(Edited by Ratan Priya)