Only when cornered and isolated globally will Pakistan come to its senses

A protest against terrorism from Pakistan in the wake of the Pahalgam attack | Image for representation | Suraj Singh Bisht | Image for representation | ThePrint

 It has been nearly a week since the terrorist attack in the Baisaran valley, an idyllic meadow near Pahalgam teeming with tourists and honeymooners, rocked the nation. The attack yet again sent the country into a frenzy of jingoism and patriotic fervour. News channels were abuzz with experts of all hues offering their comments, often with little regard for rationality.

After a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), where the Chief of Defence Staff was conspicuously absent, the government was quick to react, announcing a slew of deterrent measures, including putting the Indus Water Treaty on hold and declaring all Pakistani military advisers as persona non grata. This not only showcased the gravity of the situation but also the portents of things to come. The Raksha Mantri and the Prime Minister both made strong statements reflecting the anguish felt by the nation and vowed to not only bring the perpetrators to book but also to go beyond and target those hiding behind the scenes.

While these measures are a welcome first step, they cannot be seen in isolation. Each response must have a clear purpose with well-defined outcomes, the foremost being to force Pakistan to “credibly and irrevocably abjure its support to cross-border terrorism.” Similar actions in the past—including the ground-based surgical strike after Uri in 2016 and the air strike at Balakot after the Pulwama terrorist attack in 2019—have not deterred Pakistan from continuing on this self-destructive path of violence. The need of the hour, therefore, is to dig deeper and unravel the core issue and the centre of gravity that has to be addressed to make Pakistan’s ruling dispensation see reason.

At the same time, our collective response should not tear at the fabric of our society. This is not a Hindu-Muslim issue but one of terrorist acts against defenceless, law-abiding citizens whose right to life and liberty has been violently cut short. We must not allow this to become a Hindu versus Muslim affair.

 

‘Negative peace’ to ‘positive peace’

Terrorist acts are designed to intimidate and, through such acts, force ordinary citizens to radically alter their lifestyle or opinions. If, as a result of this latest act, tourism comes to a grinding halt, negatively affecting the local economy, or if it creates fissures within our polity, then the terrorists and their handlers would have achieved their aim. It is therefore essential not to let that happen. Exodus of tourists from Kashmir is understandable, but targeting Kashmiri students in various parts of the country is not, as it unwittingly plays into the terrorist game-plan.

What we have had so far in Jammu and Kashmir is a ‘negative peace’. That is, the relative absence of violence without addressing the root causes leading to it, not unlike a temporary ceasefire between two warring nations. After three decades of counter-terrorist and counter-insurgency operations, and the elimination of hundreds of terrorists each year, the number of terrorist cadres, including local cadres, has remained more or less constant. If terrorist organisations are still able to lure the youth to their side and make them ‘pick up the gun’, then it is a matter of concern. There is a need, therefore, to introspect, as the final solution has to be a political one if we are to achieve a longer-lasting ‘positive peace’, namely, removing the root causes of the problem.

Striking to succeed, not for symbolism

The same is the case with the trans-border measures that have been announced or are being contemplated. Each proposal should be thought through to its logical conclusion and be ‘red-teamed’. Suspending the Indus Water Treaty is indeed a major step and indicative of our resolve.

However, how is it going to be implemented?

River waters will not simply stop flowing contrary to the laws of nature.  While some steps to build storage facilities and to divert river waters have been undertaken in the recent past, it remains a work in progress. What will be its effect on the local population in Pakistan, already reeling under drought-like conditions? No doubt it will have an adverse impact on their economy, but that burden will have to be borne by a population that is already suffering extreme hardships. There is every possibility that such proclamations will give fodder to those who live by exploiting the ‘anti-India’ sentiment and provide a rallying point to a beleaguered Pakistani dispensation desperate to divert attention from their internal problems, particularly in Balochistan. These are difficult decisions to make under trying conditions.

There are also suggestions to use the Indian Navy to blockade Karachi. Easier said than done. While we may have the capability, how will such a blockade be enforced? Foreign-flagged ships cannot be forced to stop or divert. If a vessel continues to maintain its course, the options are limited, as one cannot possibly open fire on an unarmed civilian merchant ship, carrying crews from multiple nations. Announcing a measure and then not being able to enforce it will only result in a major loss of face. All options, therefore, should be carefully considered and war-gamed before deciding on any course of action, whatever the domain—civil or military, with clear Rules of Engagement, end-states and exit strategies.

Strong retaliatory measures are very much needed but must come with a fair assurance of success. When, where, and by what means is for us to decide.

 

Hit where it hurts

The most important issue, though, is to be able to strike at those places which will force Pakistan to switch course. What are the pain points that need to be struck to bring about the desired behavioural change? And who is the power behind the throne? These decisions are being taken by a small coterie within the Pakistani establishment, and that is where we should concentrate all our efforts.

Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon official has even compared Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir to Osama Bin Laden for their similar roles in fostering terrorism. Designating and sanctioning people and organisations that sponsor terrorism, using our considerable global goodwill, is a good place to start. The kith and kin of those supporting terrorism should then be forcibly deported if they are studying abroad. We have to hit where it hurts.

The issuance of international arrest warrants against known officials will have a salutary effect, as in the case of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte who was arrested in March 2025, under an International Criminal Court (ICC) mandated warrant. Only when cornered, with nowhere to run and isolated globally, will the Pakistani leadership come to its senses.

Identifying and sanctioning these people is the real challenge. We need to cut off the head, whether through legal warfare or military means. At the same time, we as a people must not lose our equilibrium, lest we become unwitting pawns in this terror-game. We must also allow the government time and space to formulate appropriate responses.

General Manoj Mukund Naravane PVSM AVSM SM VSM is a retired Indian Army General who served as the 28th Chief of the Army Staff. Views are personal.

(Edited by Asavari Singh)