With elections concluded, vocal cords exercised, and the antics of the newly elected Assembly on display, winter has set in across Jammu and Kashmir. In Kashmir, trees—especially the Chinars—are shorn of leaves, the ground frozen, and villages, towns, and roads deserted as those in power retreat to leisure destinations or workplaces. The quiet and calm foster delusions that lasting peace and stability have arrived in J&K. However, sporadic encounters between security forces and terrorists are a reminder that trouble still simmers in this so-called Heaven on Earth.
All indicators suggest that the Centre, the Union Territory government, security forces, and the population have drawn few lessons from the past 35 years. The cycle of fleeting peace followed by prolonged violence and disturbance continues to lull stakeholders into complacency. J&K currently experiences a strategic pause and a pregnant calm—a period so uncertain that not even self-proclaimed experts, seers, fortune tellers, and spiritual guides can predict what lies ahead in the next six months.
Historically, J&K has endured recurring cycles of violence and turmoil after brief spells of peace. The best part is that the people of J&K are willing to blame the Almighty, the Indian government of the time, the Pakistani Deep State, and even fate but not themselves. They do not realise that it is only they who suffer constantly, while the Centre and transient leaders —whether chosen or rejected—do not bear the brunt of violence and disturbance. Even the Almighty and fate look the other way with regret on lost opportunities.
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A visible calm in Valley
The leading party in the UT, surprised by its majority win, is still marvelling at the fortune bestowed upon it by the people. Yet, contradictions between pre-poll promises and post-victory deliverance have resulted in a pause, which is not due to the winter chill but possibly from the absence of ideas to fulfil impossible promises.
The Centre, through the Lieutenant Governor-led administration, has made significant strides in meeting major public aspirations. The past five years have seen relative normalcy—devoid of bandhs and protests—and the lowest level of violence since 1990. There is a possible sense of relief over success wherein a large number of infrastructure projects have been completed, huge investments secured, and anti-national elements isolated. But the absence of a parliamentary majority has precluded attempts for firm and resolute actions for further corrections, while the majority of a single party in the Assembly has raised concerns over possible manipulations to exercise a degree of control. There is a flux due to a “what now” situation because of the duality of administration, which is quite unique in the Indian context, especially in a politically aware population strident about its rights and power.
The fractured population of UT is yet to recover from a mandate that came about in the Assembly election, resulting in a single-party majority for the first time in recent decades. The vocal and visible pro-Indians in Kashmir Valley have suddenly lost their voice and deftly moved on to the game of fence-sitters posting tweets and comments of secularism on one side but prominently throwing up issues when people of similar faith are affected. The good part is that India baiters continue to be silent, awaiting favourable winds to roll up sleeves and commence their seditious activities in full flow. As such, their activities had continued unabated in some measure under the garb of freedom of religion in the secular country.
The silent majority, particularly the youth, watch the situation and change of guard with concern as the promised jobs are unlikely to come by—there are few in the government to whet the appetite and there will be fewer in the private sector if the situation turns for the worse. They are unable to find a voice in the old people’s club, which is the J&K political landscape. The pregnant calm is quite visible in the Valley and the outcome most awaited with concerned anticipation by the youth looking for opportunities and modern living with world-class infrastructure. All are awaiting the strengthening or weakening of administrative grip, including the law and order machinery to sway appropriately.
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Pakistan is ‘in play’
Across the Line of Control, Pakistan continues to strategise the next round of surprises, sanguine in its knowledge of success due to the Indian establishments inability to learn from history. The plan is likely to be in play. New terrorist groups have infiltrated over the past few months, awaiting directions. These groups are more well-trained, equipped, motivated, radicalised, and smarter. Unlike the previous avatars, they prefer to strike and scoot to fight another day rather than facing death and eventual heaven.
Pakistan’s economic conditions are dire, with friendly allies unwilling to further provide loans or credits. However, Islamabad senses possibilities with the changed fortune in Bangladesh and effectiveness of the Deep State machinations that is unfavourable to India. Not-so-strong Centre and very strong mandate in the UT with probable conflicts of dual control in governance, the fluid situation is an opportune time in the UT. Pakistan needs to be credited with strategic fixation wherein during the worst periods of turmoil internally, externally and economically, the eye of the establishment is never off the ball, Kashmir, even when the “ship is sinking”. The country, with a globally articulated stake in J&K, is also at a stage of strategic pause with respect to the state of play in J&K.
However, Pakistan, down in dumps internally due to the subversive movements against the government and more dangerously against the Army that owns the country, is waiting for appropriate geopolitical alignments to recommence the game of play in J&K. The recent pushback by China after resolute diplomatic onslaught and military firmness has provided a reprieve to the strategic calculus shocking many India baiters in Kashmir. The disengagement has also let down some steam in Pakistani establishment, which was quite satisfied by the Indian military reorientation towards the North. The worldwide anticipated change of guard in the US and preoccupation of the current administration and Deep State in multiple flashpoints globally have also contributed to the strategic pause.
Don’t become delusional
The J&K government, the Centre, and the security forces must not become delusional about stable peace merely because of significant achievements over the past five years, including the successful conduct of Lok Sabha and Assembly elections and other indicators of normalcy. The pregnant calm of recent past and over the winter months may deliver surprise, unpleasant if not watchful and good news, if carefully nursed. More than the paid government functionaries and elected representatives, it is the population of J&K that must watch over to preserve the peace brought after the loss of thousands of lives and 35 years where three generations have seen unending violence and no peace. Be warned that the enemy within is “in play,” not awaiting arrival of favourable times whereas the establishment is still wondering what next.
The path to lasting peace in J&K lies in vigilance, proactive governance, and active citizen participation. While the last five years have brought significant progress, it is crucial to recognise that peace is not the absence of conflict but the presence of justice, opportunity, and trust. The region’s future depends on sustained efforts to address its unique challenges while building on the achievements of the past.
The central and J&K governments must seize this moment of relative calm to sustain a roadmap for enduring peace. This includes empowering local bodies, addressing socio-economic disparities, and enhancing counter-terrorism capabilities. Only by staying ahead of threats—both internal and external—can J&K become an example of transformation from a conflict zone to a beacon of stability and development to the world. The current strategic pause and pregnant calm can deliver peace and hope for the future—provided it is carefully nurtured.
Lieutenant General Devendra Pratap Pandey, PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, VSM, is a retired general officer of the Indian Army. He tweets @LtGenDPPandey. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)