Like national interests, major geopolitical churnings at the global or regional levels are not, by and large, susceptible to frequent change. However, this truism has surprisingly met its Waterloo in the past three years, with several kinetic conflicts around the world transforming an otherwise consistent geopolitical landscape in unexpected ways.
Arguably, 2025 will go down in history as the year of unprecedented turbulence. Few strategic analysts, think tanks, security experts and government functionaries could have anticipated this disorder, primarily attributable to the waywardness of one man—Donald Trump—the president of the sole but decaying superpower of the world, the USA.
It is common knowledge that many of Trump’s policies are harmful to his nation, as acknowledged by those who matter in the US and his own allies in the Western world. He, however, persists with his myopic, unpresident-like shenanigans, much to the disbelief of his friends and foes alike. The good news is that no personality in the world is eternal.
Soon after assuming his second presidency early this year, Trump, by most accounts, has forsaken the ideals of balance, maturity and patience in the conduct of global affairs, even with the allies and friends. The US’ strategic partnership with its foremost adversary—both militarily and economically — China and a slowly resurgent Russia have gone from bad to worse.
Similarly, its ties with the world’s largest democracy, India, have undergone a steep fall despite the much-hyped ‘friendship’ between Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Even PM Modi would have been totally flabbergasted by the change in attitude of his once fast friend, ole Donald.
Adding insult to injury
Trump 1.0 had been embraced by hundreds of thousands of delirious fans both in the US and India. But slogans like “Howdy Modi” and “Ab Ki Baar Trump Sarkar” are now distant memories. To add insult to injury, Trump invited Pakistan’s Army Chief — the cunning, anti-India, self-styled Field Marshal Asim Munir — twice to the White House, an unprecedented act by a US president inviting a Service Chief to the White House.
Perhaps the US is changing its strategic policies in the South and West Asian region, and needs Pakistan’s air bases to confront Iran and influence Afghanistan. Whatever the reason, it is truly inexplicable that the US has once again pardoned Pakistan, the citadel of global terrorism, including against the US.
This step has been severely condemned by many US strategic experts, who are more than aware of Pakistan’s terror activities. But the current US attachment to Pakistan is no more than a brief flirtation.
With India—supposedly its “strategic friend”—the US relationship has unexpectedly nose-dived. The reasons attributed have been that India, exercising its strategic autonomy policies, has been purchasing Russian oil, though at cheaper rates than the world market. Importantly, the US president decided to impose a 50 per cent tariff on various Indian goods, including textiles, jewellery and auto parts, among other merchandise.
The existing trade imbalance between the US and India has also been cited as one of the reasons for the high tariffs imposed on India. The US conveniently forgot that China, too, buys oil from Russia, and many European nations buy natural gas and other petroleum products from Russia. Thus, singling out India and its BRICS partner, the self-respecting Brazil, gives the US a bad name in the world.
Many of Trump’s actions against India have been criticised by American leaders, including former National Security Advisers John Bolton and Jake Sullivan. Even Trump’s Republican Party’s presidential candidate co-runner, Niki Haley, has advised Trump to mend ties with India.
To date, Trump shows no sign of relenting from his unjustified anti-India tariffs. Most observers argue that India giving him no credit for stopping the recent four-day India-Pakistan war is the main cause of the current frostiness in their relations, as Trump carries a big ego. Additionally, Modi’s decision to decline Trump’s invite to visit the White House after the G7 Summit further irked the latter.
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India—a responsible growing global power
Modi must be complimented for pursuing a self-respecting policy towards the US, in line with the shift in India’s traditional stance — from Nehru’s non-alignment to Modi’s multi-lateral alignment. It is surely a step in the right direction that India has firmly conveyed that it will not bend before anyone in the world.
As a responsible growing global power, India, without succumbing to Trump’s tantrums, has, in a mature manner, avoided getting into any slanging match with the US administration. Keeping its head high, India must pursue the negotiation route to bring US tariffs down to manageable limits.
India must also vigorously pursue cooperation with the US in areas of Strategic Technology via the US-India TRUST (Transforming the Relationship Utilising Strategic Technology) Initiative and the INDUS innovation platform to promote collaboration in areas like semiconductors, AI and space. The ten-year framework for the US-India Major Defense Partnership (2025-2035), which will include co-production of advanced military systems and fielding of joint exercises, should be accelerated. On QUAD-connected issues, India must continue to cooperate with the US for maritime security and economic relations in the Indo-Pacific region.
All contentious issues, irrespective of the area they cover, are prone to resolution. India, by its sincere and mature endeavours, can show the world that its values and honest efforts can usher in a better and peaceful environment. Not only do India and the US need each other, but the world does too.
The author was the first DG of India’s Defence Intelligence Agency and is a leading strategic analyst. Views are personal.
(Edited by Saptak Datta)