Colombia probably has the dubious honour of being the first victim of Trump’s push to compel countries to align with US interests. America surely has taken its first steps toward becoming great again. As of now, high tariffs and other economic pincers appear to be aimed at illegal immigrants, and the mafia and sleaze funds aiding drug peddling. Escalating the tariff war, Canada, Colombia and China are devising retaliatory measures.
Following his success in arm twisting Colombia, Trump signed orders under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and imposed 25 per cent tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, with an additional 10 per cent levy on Chinese products. This, he said is “Because of the major threat of illegal aliens and deadly drugs killing our citizens, including fentanyl,” and is in keeping with his election promise “to protect Americans by stopping the flood of illegal aliens and drugs from pouring across our Borders”.
Fentanyl, a synthetic piperidine opioid primarily used as an analgesic, is reported to be 30 to 50 times more potent than heroin and 100 times stronger than morphine. Used for clinical pain management (for cancer patients and those recovering from painful surgeries), it has become a primary source of drug abuse, neurotoxicity, paradoxical pain, nervous disorder, and deaths.
War on China
Trump’s decision to impose 10 per cent additional levy on Beijing could cascade into a much larger war with China – currently the primary supplier of the precursor chemicals required to produce fentanyl. Many officials in the American security establishments consider this a reverse “opium war”, as these precursor chemicals are used by Mexican cartels to produce fentanyl. Howard Lutnick, Trump’s choice for running the commerce department and overseeing the Office of the US Trade Representative, openly declared that “China is attacking America with fentanyl.”
Chinese money launderers have reportedly become key players in the international drug trade. According to a Reuters report, Trump’s advisors are pushing for sanctions on Chinese financial institutions allegedly doing business with money launderers and corrupt chemical sellers. In the past decade, the report further explained, nearly four lakh Americans have died due to synthetic opioid overdose. This includes the daughter of Steve Yates, a China expert and former national security official in the George W Bush administration who is now counselling Trump’s team.
In the given circumstances, Trump has to put Mexico, Panama, and other Latin American countries in the priority list to deport illegal immigrants, insulate them from Chinese drug funding and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, as well as China’s overall strategic influence.
Panama President José Raúl Mulino has already announced the cancellation of the 2017 memorandum of understanding to join BRI and that Panama would work more closely with the US. This comes immediately after his meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. In his visit, Rubio had informed Panama of Trump’s demand to end Chinese influence on the canal. Many Latin American states like Panama are staring at the prospect of a government change if they refuse to fall in line with Trump’s MAGA worldview and ‘America First’ policy.
Also read: JNU report links illegal immigrants to ‘demographic changes’ in Delhi, sparks AAP-BJP slugfest
Real challenges
Donald Trump’s real foreign policy challenges will come when he begins to deal with Russia, China and Iran – three countries every American president has dealt with differently during their tenures. Trump’s time, too, is different.
Though Russia is making some headway in its war against Ukraine, its global oil trade and business with European countries may not be the same very soon. Trump has declared that he would only fund Ukraine’s war effort against Russia if he gets his hands on its rare earth minerals, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is open to it. As for NATO, the US president has already informed the members to increase their defence spending from two per cent of their respective GDPs to five per cent, a demand almost impossible to meet for many.
Over the last 20 years, seven former USSR countries have joined NATO. Trump may prefer to stop or at least delay NATO’s expansion eastward but may not spare Russia from the tariff attack. China has already come under the Trump administration’s trade war radar, and Iran could face further pressures to give up its nuclear programme. With Hamas and Hezbollah weakened, Tehran’s new worry could be Washington’s regime change project.
Soon after Trump announced new tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, India’s 2025 Budget chose “not to use tariff as a protectionist tool despite the increasing geopolitical headwinds to this effect.” It announced a reduction in import duty on several goods, including high-end motorcycles such as those produced by Harley Davidson. Clearly, the signal to Trump that we are not “Tariff King” is loud and clear.
In response to another one of Trump’s threats – to impose 100 percent tariffs on BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) nations if they tried to replace the dollar with a common currency – Finance Secretary Tuhin Kanta Pandey assured the White House that India would not align with China on the BRICS currency. “We have no intention to replace the dollar as a currency,” he said. With the US withdrawing from the Global Tax Agreement – which mandates multinational corporations to pay a minimum of 15 per cent tax – and India’s average import duty reduced to 10.66 per cent, the revenue shortfall will have to be reworked.
However, more than trade and tariff matters, it would be interesting to know where New Delhi stands with regards to the White House and Trump’s agenda on illegal immigrants. According to estimates by the Migration Policy Institute, as of mid-2022, approximately 375,000 (or three per cent) of the United States’ 11.3 million unauthorised immigrants are Indians. Meanwhile, about 104 illegal Indian immigrants, duly verified by Indian officials, who were recently handcuffed and shipped off to India in a C-17 US military aircraft, have landed in Amritsar. More will come.
Trump 2.0 could throw up several challenges and surprises for New Delhi, and it will have to think out of the box to deal with them.
Seshadri Chari is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. He tweets @seshadrichari. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)
‘Overlook trade and tariff’ is exactly what socialist India has been doing in the past, present, and will continue to do so in the future. She will remain undeveloped country for eternity while the cycle of socialism, poverty, unemployment, and illegal immigration to developed countries will continue unabated.
You did not explain what you meant that it would be “interesting” to see how GOI deals with Trump on illegal immigrants from India.
India can and should do the only proper thing – ensure dignified treatment of its citizens and accept them back – offering vocational and psychological counseling.
And crack down on people smugglers who take advantage of misguided young people.