The “elimination” of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah by Israel is comparable to the American exploit that killed al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in his hideout in Pakistan 13 years ago. The Israeli coup in Lebanon is, in many ways, more daring and audacious than the American one. Bin Laden was hiding out in a safe house undoubtedly provided by Pakistan, hardly able to control and conduct the actions of the militant group.
Nasrallah, on the contrary, was very much hands on in determining the timing, extent, and ferocity of his group’s strikes on Israel. He used his charisma to build Hezbollah into the formidable fighting force that it is reported to be today. Hezbollah will most likely swear vengeance and threaten dire consequences for Israel, but there is no gainsaying the fact that its capacity to cause harm to the neighbouring country has been adversely affected by the death of its long-serving leader.
Meeting Nasrallah
I met Nasrallah in 2005 when I went to Beirut as the special envoy of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for West Asia. Rafiq Hariri, Singh’s counterpart, had been killed in a massive explosion in the heart of Beirut. The truth about the explosion remained unknown, though fingers were pointed at Israel. I condoled his death on behalf of the former PM.
I requested our ambassador in Lebanon at the time, Nengcha Lhouvum, to arrange a meeting with the Hezbollah leader. I was impressed that she had established contacts with Hezbollah and managed to arrange a meeting with Nasrallah. We both went to see him in his ‘den’. We weren’t blindfolded but made to change cars twice or thrice. Of course, we were checked for any weapons. Nasrallah was an imposing figure, tall and handsome. He received us warmly. I was surprised when he told us that he was a great admirer of MK Gandhi. When I pointed out the obvious contradiction between his admiration for Gandhi and his use of violent methods, he justified the latter by reminding me of the ruthless character of Israel and its continued illegal occupation of Palestine and a strip of land along the Lebanon-Israel border. Israel protested to the Ministry of External Affairs about my meeting with Nasrallah; the ministry rejected the protest to my pleasant surprise.
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Turning the tide
There has been a unanimous assessment among Middle East experts that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was getting more and more unpopular in his country since he failed to get the hostages back and destroy Hamas. He vowed to continue his war until the twin objectives were achieved. But his real motivating factor was political. Netanyahu faces criminal charges in Israeli courts and has a razor-thin majority in the Knesset, that too with the support of extreme Right-wing parties aiming to denude Gaza of all Palestinians and populating it with Jewish settlers. He inflicted untold suffering on Gazans, which spurred anti-Israel protests in the United States, causing a difficult situation for the Biden presidency.
The string of successful strikes against Hamas — the killing of top leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran — and now Hezbollah is turning the tide of popularity in Netanyahu’s favour. If at all he manages to eliminate Yahya Sinwar, the undisputed leader of Hamas, Netanyahu could even win an election in a few months.
What Netanyahu would dearly want to happen is to provoke Iran to a degree that the Islamic Republic might feel obliged to strike in a big way. That will then provide a plausible excuse for Israel to attack Iran. Netanyahu is in a win-win situation right now: A big attack from Iran would provide a casus belli to Israel to launch a full-scale war. As Netanyahu has declared, there is no place in Iran that Israel cannot reach. That would lead to a wider regional war, dragging America and other Western nations into an anti-Iran coalition. If the regime in Tehran does not react so as to save itself, it would lose face and all credibility. It would be exposed as a paper tiger. In that case, Netanyahu would have carte blanche for the ground operation that he has already started and to inflict heavy casualties on Hezbollah.
‘Dead on arrival’
Hezbollah is estimated to have a massive stock of missiles — as many as 120,000 — of different types. Has this all been propaganda by the militant group? This is an excellent opportunity for Israel and the US, for whom destroying the mullah regime is of the highest priority. A large section of the Iranian people would welcome its fall. In such a scenario, it should surprise no one if Netanyahu declares election and wins.
Would Russia jump on Iran’s side? Doubtful — it has its own war in Ukraine to take care of. What would China do? And finally, what would India do?
A few days ago, a group of about 20 Western countries announced a proposal in New York according to which Hezbollah and Israel would agree to a three-week ceasefire. That period would be utilised to work out a more lasting truce between the two belligerents. Never was a more impractical proposal conceived. It was what P Chidambaram, senior Congress leader, has said in a different context: “Dead on arrival”.
A good time for diplomacy
The crucial successes scored by Israeli agencies will help restore their image and prestige, which suffered a big setback on 7 October 2023 when they failed to anticipate the Hamas attack.
In this radically changed situation, Hamas will increase Sinwar’s security even more. Israeli agencies, no doubt, have informers in both organisations; it takes only a few thousand shekels to entice the poorly paid foot soldiers of Hamas and Hezbollah. Israel is able to obtain pinpoint intelligence about the Hamas leaders’ movement. No one should be surprised if Israel announces the death of Sinwar one day. Hamas has lost a powerful friend in the death of Nasrallah. If Hezbollah does not regroup in a short time, Hamas will feel weakened. Even the Houthis might be restrained by Iran so as to avoid a wider war that might lead to the demise of the regime. Hamas will have only one trump card left: 101 hostages. It cannot afford to kill them.
This is probably as good a time as any for diplomacy to become intensely active. Shuttle diplomacy at high level is indicated along the lines of the famous Kissingerian shuttles following the 197 Arab-Israeli war. There might be an opportunity for India to offer its good offices, which, according to the sycophantic media, the world is keenly waiting for and which the government has offered more than once.
Chinmaya Gharekhan is former Permanent Representative of India to the United Nations in Geneva. Views are personal.
(Edited by Humra Laeeq)